Let's just acknowledge what is ultimately going on here. UIL makes no effort to have any kind of predictable rubric or standard for juding marching contests. Different judges will have different ideas of what they want to reward in terms of music and marching. Therefore, unless a kid is in an elite band like Bowie, all they can really hope to achieve in UIL Area prelims is to be good enough to be in the pool of 15 or more very good bands from which the rest of the finalists will be chosen. Whether a band is ranked 3rd or 13th in prelims is almost meaningless in terms of any kind of real assessment, or really anything other than the fact that the 3rd ranked band got to go to finals and the 13th ranked band did not. That's just how the prelim lotto worked out on that day.
If that's the system we want, then that's fine. But let's not kid outselves -- or more importantly, let's not imply to the kids -- that the "prediction" game is anything but completely pointless entertainment and that except for the elite one or two bands, the other bands can really only hope to make it into the lotto pool. Making predictions assumes some there is some degree of standard by which one can make a reasonable guess as to what it takes for a band to make finals. But there is none. The truth is that for the vast majority of bands, it's a throw of the dice.