LHSax

I can definitely see a scenario like 07 where Texas gets the eagle, but not with the band that wins SA. Marcus actually dominated SA that year, sweeping captions in finals and almost doing so in Prelims, but LD Bell still went on to win at grand nationals. Some may assume that Marcus would've won if they went to Indy that year, but I still think LD Bell added so many layers to that show by Indy (the progressive endings...so bold and powerful) that they may have topped Marcus then.

I’m just quoting this to emphasize it to everyone. For those youngin’s who haven’t watched early 2000’s Reagan, stop what you’re doing now and watch.

As expected – ya’ll (we) are old!! Some misc. thoughts- 1. While the percentage of current students who responded is expectedly small, I bet there is a larger chunk of lurking students who can’t respond (I think you have to have an account to respond to the poll). I’ve read in the past that some directors really don’t want their students posting on boards, which is probably fair based on some things that have been posted by some…less than mature…student posters in the past. 2. I love seeing how many alumni parents are on this board. It means a lot that an extra-curricular done by your kid is still part of your lives years later (and honestly, ya’ll make some of the best posts). That’s pretty awesome to me. 3. I would love to hear the stories of those who are “general fans.” This category definitely received more votes than I expected. 4. Also enjoyed seeing some names that I thought were one category, where i was completely wrong. Thanks for voting!

While we like to think SA is crazy and unpredictable, if we look at the last 5 years, the results at SA have been generally pretty consistent and relatively predictable given earlier regionals and previous years. With this in mind, I’ll take a slightly different historical look at potential medalists/top-half finalists/finalists, based on past trends. (it’s been a slow morning at work). Notes: Bands color coded by region, out of state bands not included in list. Winners (2) Flowermound CTJ This one is obvious. CTJ and Flowermound have taken turns at the top spot at the podium the last 5 years and it will be tough to wrestle it away from them (particularly after FM’s hot start this year). As always, without direct comparison, there are a few groups who appear to be able to give us a new winner this year. Hebron is still itching for that first title after being close so many times. Reagan’s renaissance still needs a title to complete an amazing comeback story. Vandy has been close in the past and seems primed to challenge for the top spot again this year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Medalists (8) Hebron Reagan Vandegrift Leander The Woodlands Bowie The podium has also been relatively consistent the last 5 years, although there has been some back and forth between these groups between years. While Bowie may not quite be in this group anymore, each of the others are favorites to complete the medal stand this year. Breaking through this group to have “new” medalists will be tough. Vista likely has the best long shot depending on what they can do with an interesting vehicle, but the medalists will likely come from the 8 bands above. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top Half Finalists (11) Vista Ridge Marcus Cedar Park This is the grouping that’s pretty surprising for me. Only 11 bands have finished in the top half of finals in the past 5 years. Take out the 1 appearance apiece in this group by Bowie and VR, and the 1 spot taken by Avon, and that means 9 bands have taken 32 of the 35 top half spots over the last 5 years. These bands make up the upper echelon for the last half decade, and will be a very tough group to crack into. I don’t personally see anyone cracking into this group this year, but I’ll give Keller the best shot at doing so. They’ve flirted with the top half for a couple years now and they will certainly hover around the break-line this year again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Finalists (20) Keller Cedar Ridge Westlake LD Bell Round Rock Hendrickson Wakeland Churchill Cypress Falls Again, take away the outliers (1 appearance by Wakeland, Churchill and Cypress falls) and you have 17 who have made more than 1 finalist appearance the last 5 years. Each year we tend to get 1 somewhat surprise finalist, but in general, this is once again a pretty exclusive group. The other interesting thing to note is that Houston has 1 finalist appearance besides the Woodlands in the past 5 years, and you have to go back to Spring in 2012 before that to find the next one. Houston bands have consistently hovered on the bubble, but have rarely broken through. Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be a Houston area band this year to break that trend, with 3 of the top 4 spots in the Houston regional going to non-Houston bands. 2 bands jump out to me as groups who can break into the finalist category this year based on early seasons results. Lake Travis and Westwood are the favorites to emerge as new contenders based on Lake Travis surprisingly strong finish in Austin, and Westwood’s confirmed potential in Houston. Vista Murietta will also likely have an outside chance at sneaking in. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ There are obviously a lot of bubble bands, and a lot that could happen in San Antonio, but not nearly as much as we tend to think. There are ebbs and flows over the past 5 years, some have slipped and some have raised their standard, but the trends are there, and the major trend breaker (IE Vista Ridge last year) doesn’t appear to be there this year. But I’ve been wrong before (Thanks to HornRank for becoming a very useful source for capturing this information...I'm sure there may be an error or 2 in here though)

Lol, so much hate for the first person bold enough to make a list after the big 3 regionals. Chill y’all. Make your own list.

Dang these look cool and super versatile! I get a feeling Hebron throws their name into the Eagle conversation hat this weekend.

I tend to agree with lostchoirguy in that for the sake of data I’ll limit it to one option, which should be what you currently most identify as that keeps you posting on these boards.

I also at first thought mash meant he was an Alumn and a parent, and then realized he meant he is the parent of an alumn. Haha

Changed it (I think?) so that you can choose more than 1 answer.

I've been generally curious about this for a while now, because it seems that recently this season the most active posters have been parents first, then alumni, with a few students here and there. I have no problem with that of course, but it didn't always used to be that way, so I'm testing out the poll settings of this forum to see if there's a just a lot of students out there who are lurking, or if this really has become a forum dominated by the older crowd. Hopefully the poll works...?

We interrupt this financial conversation for a few super late thoughts about BOA Austin- Unfortunately had to miss most of prelims, but caught most of finals and filled in the gaps with the Tube yesterday. (side note - love the video entitled "Bowie BOA Austin Karaoke Version" ) Don’t know if BOA heard the complaints from last year, but wow this judging panel was pretty impressively consistent. Besides the jostling of the 8-10 spots, the top 7 remained the same. Even between captions there is very little range of ordinals in both finals and prelims. The judges all generally agreed where these bands ranked Saturday night, so while there were some surprising results, it's hard to argue with them. The 6 min rule didn’t really effect the finals breakline, but I really don’t agree with this rule. I guess the concept is that a band can’t somehow perfect a 3 min show and expect to have an advantage, but I really can’t see any group intentionally doing that, and it’s just as drastic of a strategy as CTJ plowing through to get their entire show on the field. Bands should have the opportunity to get as much show on the field as their comfortable with, and scores will naturally reflect this without a completely unnecessary penalty policy. This competition really needed some fresh finals blood, as it’s typically been the usual 8-9, and then a last spot or 2 for rotating other bands. Unfortunately getting new bands means some of the consistent finalists have to be left out, and if I had to pick a few bands that were most vulnerable, Round Rock and Hendrickson, as consistent as they have been, were top choices. At first I wondered if the early start time got them, but Rouse managed to emerge from that same block, and the judges got a very direct comparison. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button yet for Round Rock, but this will certainly be quite the hurdle to overcome for a band trending in the wrong direction. Congrats of course go out to the new finalists! Rouse was very much expected by many on this board, Westwood has been knocking on the door for a while, but Lake Travis was the real stunner here. Maybe it’s because they don’t seem to have much representation on this board to build up hype? (Congrats to those who may be lurking!) To not just slip into finals but to BURST into finals at this competition is no small feat. Will be very interesting to see how this show stacks up in the rest of the season and if this is the beginning of a new Lake Travis era. Cedar Park will win the 5A state title until they move up to 6A or a 6A finalist moves down 5A. There I said it. This show is exactly what the doctor ordered after last years down season. But please please please lose the narration. The show simply doesn’t need it. The drill is so well written to express this theme that the narration really ruins what is a very well composed show. I know it probably stays in, and I’ll still love the show, but I can dream. Vista Ridge is exactly where it needs to be. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, it takes a lot of guts to completely overhaul a design staff that won you a state title. Besides the fact that they’re spinning a lot again, I wouldn’t recognize this as the same band at all from last year (and not just due to the new uniforms). The fact that they’ve remade themselves and are still right up there with the big dogs where they were last year, is a perfect start to proving last year wasn’t just a one off. They aren’t relying on being the crowd favorite underdog, which is huge in proving they’re here to stay. I agree with others in that I think the soprano sax (as amazing as she is) carries the show a bit too much, but I think that will be justified a bit the more the character is flushed out. I think it's a really uniquely composed show and we all know what VR is capable of doing throughout a season. Plenty has been said about CTJ’s prop heroics (seriously - how did they pull that off???) but the fact is they were a solid 3rd in both prelims and the extra adventurous finals. I was always surprised more bands didn’t try the full early show approach due to their success with it over the past few years, but this may finally prove to be why this doesn’t always work out. I still think this is a heck of a vehicle, and will only obviously get better (better the prop mistake now than later in the year). Still think it will be my favorite CTJ show by the end of the year, but maybe that’s just cuz I’m a sucker for the Lion King score. Leander winning visual was a surprise to me at first, but in retrospect makes a lot of sense, and bodes really well for the rest of their season. There is A LOT happening in this show visually, but when you break it down, it’s all being done VERY well and it all really adds to the the theme of the show. Having a rapidly improving guard also helps a lot. I think this show still has a lot of potential to grow, but it will really need to get an exclamation point in the closer for me to be completely sold that this thing could medal. There's still some brass licks in the opener that are kicking their butt, and the ballad isn't quite doing it for me (yet), but all the pieces are there for this to be special come Indy. I made a post earlier where I said this was CTJ's to lose, and then I finally saw a video of Vandy and immediately doubted that comment. I'm still extremely torn on whether this is a show that is peaking too soon, or if this will be a show that is near impossible to beat. Then again I've doubted Vandy in the past when they win early, and they only end up somehow getting cleaner. I've been one of the many who have been vocal about the lack of difficult of their drill in the past, but I feel this year is actually a great step in the right direction. I don't buy the "but the dance team will hold them back" argument. They add so much to this show that it’s impossible to fault this increasingly more unique aspect to the band. I do think it will prevent them from beating the Carmel's of the world in Indy, as the dance teams are even less prevalent outside of Texas, but don't think it will prevent them from picking up hardware by any means. I was gonna say that musically this show might not lose the music caption all year, but then I remembered the brief Hebron clip that surfaced earlier in the year and will correct that statement to, this show won't finish outside the top 2 in music. Really hard to predict how the big 4 here will shake out over the next month. I think (hope?) there's a good chance we see them all in the top half of SA finals once again, and I don't think they get held off the podium this year, but we'll know more after this next weekend.

Just gonna go ahead and file that Vandy ballad right next to Leander Brittney as potential top moments of the year for me. I’ve been saying for years that Vandy needs to break their mold just a little bit to get over the hump to the top, and that ballad might just do it. My goodness, what a cool movement! I’m typically pretty anti-drum line in ballads but their drumline is smoking and it really adds to the drama. I’m sold!

...Well then I know what I'll be watching on my commute home then. Was wondering what people had been referencing.

As much as I want to be a 4 horse-race that predictions seem to suggest it is, I think at this point in the season, it's CTJ, and then the other 3 as a tossup. While it's been hard to find much recently from Vandy/VR, I just don't think the LISD schools will be quite up to CTJ's level just yet. I think each of them offer something that could steal captions from CTJ, but it's definitely CTJ's to lose. Now by San Antonio/Indianapolis, I think it will be a lot harder to predict the results between the Centex bands, but it's hard to topple the completeness CTJ puts out this early. I'm also on board the CP in the top half train. I don't actually think CP was as bad as their slightly diminished results suggested last year (they actually ended up 6th after a scary 10th in prelims in Austin), I just think a lot of other bands took a major step last year that Cedar Park didn't quite keep up with. Their show this year feels much more quintessential CP and I expect them to get back to their sustained success.

I could see a world in which one years results at regionals determine qualification for the next years super regional (or at least gives you first chance to signup) to assist with the logistics nightmare. I know there’s a whole other side of the arguement against that, but just spitballing. Personally I don’t see BOA ever implanting anything like that, and I think that’s good. It is music for ALL after all, and while there are many bands at BOA SA with zero chance of making finals, these bands are there for the experience of playing in the dome and being inspired by the elite echelon of txbands. Semifinals makes the most sense and i think there may be serious consideration for this if the pool of bands continues to be this large.

I keep thinking the same thing listening to that recording. I feel like Hebron brass could hold their own in world class finals. There’s obvious influences from Crown and Bluecoats in that first movement, and 2 ridiculous Mello sustains?? How is it possible for that mello line to be so consistently god like?

Glad I wasn't the only one To be fair, she isn't wrong....

The contenders are beginning to emerge... It's amazing how recognizable Leander's style and sound has become. They have really established an identity, and this seems like typical Leander on steroids. Indianapolis will eat this up! The music admittedly may be a bit overly ambitious, but I appreciate them really taking a risk with it and I think this is intended to peak in Indy. Everyone's talking about Toxic, but I think the end of the opener has the potential to be magical if the right balance can be found. I've seen some rehearsal snippets of CTJ floating around (and I anticipate we may see more soon if the preview show is tomorrow) and this is likely the most excited I've ever been about a CJT show. I've always appreciated the skill level and talent of CTJ, but I've never been the biggest fan of their show design (just personal preference). This one seems a lot more accessible and I think will definitely be in the Indy medal hunt.

Yes!!! Good call. Phantom ‘03! One of the shows that got me into DCI In the first place.

While both Keller and VR are both doing the offset pit concept, I think they’re both already doing a better job than Crown did at field coverage. Crowns stage always felt like a barrier to me, and they really only crossed it during the ballad. Keller and VR appear to be doing a better job of working around it (or in VR’s case flying around it). Love Keller’s music book. Someone remind me why I know this music??? And VR didn’t want early videos of this for a reason, this thing is a beast and they may struggle with it for a bit, even up to Austin. But there is a fascinating base to build on for this show and I fully expect it to explode into San Antonio.

Happy Game Day Show Debut Day, Bando's! Can't wait to catch a few of those video leaks this weekend! Everyone's being too secretive this year...

Ha, appreciate the shout-out. I'm all aboard with the change of direction so far. Excited to see what the visual package will look like.

2013 - Carolina Crown opens with Einstein on the Beach - Wins first championship 2019 - Leander opens with Einstein on the Beach - ??? This show sounds HARD!! Sounds like a show that will be peaking in Indy, and I love that Leander is taking a risk here. I’ll hold off judgment on Vandy until we see it on the field, but as always they sound fantastic and they will blow Indy away musically. But please please please add some flare to the visual package this year!!! Fingers crossed Cedar park sounds like they’ll be tough to dethrone this year. The music sounds relatively a bit “safe”, but makes sense for a state year. I think they’ll find their way back into SA finals. Seems like VR may be a bit more close to the vest with the development of the show this year. Haven’t found any preview concert vids yet. Last year was a big year for LISD, where they claimed their stake as one of, if not the best district in the state. This year they can prove they’re one of the best in the country.

Really cool to see a couple bands doing “as performed by pentatonix” songs. Their arrangement of Imagine is fantastic and if CTJ plays the bridge as they arrange it, it has the potential to be a magical moment!

Nothing is impossible. Vista finds themselves in a position they’ve never been in - as the band everyone’s aspiring to match. No longer are they the underdog. How does newly anointed powerhouse VR respond?