That one drum major

I'm pretty interested to see this years BOA Austin as it features all four Texas bands returning from Grand Nationals as well as Round Rock who will be attending Grand Nationals this year after a quiet few years. All in all I think this will tell us a lot about the future of Bowie, Cedar Park, Claudia Taylor Johnson, and Leander coming off an important year. We will also get to witness Round Rock possibly make a strong comeback. Top 5: I think a few things will be changing around a lot since last year in terms of the "strong" bands. Based on what I have seen in videos so far, I think Leander will be strong coming out of the gate with another exciting show. I also think Vandegrift will be strong early because of the nature of their show. As a result I expect them to be in the top 2 along with Leander. Also expect a good performance from Cedar Park however their show theme is just a little lack luster for me. Due to this I can see them making 3rd, all depending on how CTJ is doing (I have seen no footage of CTJ thus far). I think expect Round Rock to get 5th as they have been having some difficulty getting back on their feet after a lot of staff changes in the program and that is something that takes time to recover from. I hope they prove me wrong as it would really shake things up not only at BOA Austin but also for the rest of the season as they head into Grand Nationals. Pack leader: Leander/Vandegrift Dark horse: Round Rock 1: Leander/Vandegrift 2: Vandegrift/Leander 3: Cedar Park/CTJ 4: CTJ/Cedar Park 5: Round Rock 6-10: The top 5 for me is fairly locked in. The only thing I foresee causing a break in the top 5 is if a top 5 team is just worse than i predicted. That being said, this is still a really competitive 6-10, mirroring the program level seen as 8-12 at BOA San Antonio. I think this one could really be a battle in terms of placement but I have a general idea of what band COULD come out on top just based on recent years. I think Cedar Ridge is primed to do well this year as they have been making a lot of improvements in recent years. I also expect Vista Ridge to do fairly well as they are supposedly having a better year than they had last year. Hendrickson is always a contender for a middle spot and will most likely pass either Cedar Ridge or Vista Ridge if they are not on top of their game. Bowie has been on a decline recently as their head band director left but I think they can still secure a finals spot if they perform well. Lastly, Churchill has always been right there around the final spot and they seem a favorite of the rest of the bands to take this spot this year. 6: Cedar Ridge/Vista Ridge 7: Vista Ridge/Cedar Ridge 8: Hendrickson 9: Bowie 10: Churchill Pack leader: Cedar Ridge Dark Horse: Bowie Mostly likely placements: 1: Leander 2: Vandegrift 3: Cedar Park 4: CTJ 5: Round Rock 6: Cedar Ridge 7: Vista Ridge 8: Hendrickson 9: Bowie 10: Churchill Music: Vandegrift Visual: Leander GE: Leander I caution that I am no longer in high school so this list might be quite inaccurate, therefore if you believe there is something I missed, please correct me on it. The more information, the better. 6: Cedar Ridge/Vista Ridge 7: Vista Ridge/Cedar Ridge 8: Hendrickson 9: Bowie 10: Churchill

I have to say that I think that Rouse will be making finals this year. I see Vista Ridge falling to 9th or 10th this year while Rouse might make it up to around 7th. I feel like Jeremy Spicer worked his magical LISD powers on Rouse, even if only for a semester. After that, they got Mr. Robb, a fantastic director formerly from Cedar Park so I see them making leaps and bounds this year in terms of competitive placements. Interested to see what you guys think of Rouse's chances this year with the staff changes.

I know it is early but I can't help imagine this year's G-NATs already. I feel that despite Broken Arrow looking to not attend this year, it could be one of the most competitive competitions national competitions to ever occur. With the G-NAT regulars in attendance such as Avon, Marion Catholic, and Carmel as well as some of the rising bands in Texas: Reagan, Cedar Park, CTJ, and Leander, making finals could be as hard as ever. I think this year we will see bands that could be BOA region winners not even cracking the top half of the finals latter which is CRAZY. (Sidenote: Westlake is also confirmed to be going to G-Nats this year, as it is on the Music for All website.) It is just September but I will take a swing at making a rough order for finals based on which bands have are historically doing well and which bands are gaining momentum. *NOTICE: All groups are put into alphabetical order. Each band in these group has been put there because they have the potential to beat any other band in that group and it is too early right now to narrow it down much further without complete speculation.* Top (1-5): Avon CTJ Leander Reagan Tarpon Springs These are the bands that I can see taking home the eagle this year. All of these bands run difficult shows with a strong focus on GE that is supported by visuals and music. Avon, of course, I expect to do well this year as they have a history of doing so, but a top 3 placement won't be so easy. Even the legendary Avon will need to bring something very impressive to the table to win. CTJ has really asserted itself as a powerhouse in Texas over the last three years since "Chameleon" and continues to bring new, unpredictable things to the table. They are my early vote for the GE cake this year but it could go to any band here. Leander has continued to grow since 2014 with "Color Study" and is a band that is hard to place as last year they had so much momentum but we unable to perform at BOA SA, where they could stand up against Reagan, Flower Mound, and Hebron. The real question is, can they keep that momentum going after 13 months into G-Nats the next November? If they bring GE like they have the last few years, who knows how high they really could go. Reagan also really began to grow last year with "Every(one)". Their announcement to go to G-Nats after one year in the top of the rankings seems hasty but I have confidence that they can improve upon last season with their new design team and a new director. I cannot wait to see how they choose to solidify themselves as a dominant competitor. Last, but not least, Tarpon Springs plans to come back to Indianapolis looking for the eagle once again after two hugely successful seasons. It seems they are trying to win it again, and with Broken Arrow gone, it seems the chance is now, but this year could pose great challenges. How they choose to follow up last year could be interesting because getting a caption might be very difficult for them this year. Middle (6-9): Bowie Carmel Cedar Park William Mason This group is particularly stronger than most in a G-Nats competition I feel. Bowie winning BOA Austin two years ago and Cedar Park being only .05 points from winning it last year compared to the 4th and 5th place finishes of William Mason and Carmel last year will be truly interesting. Bowie has been consistently a strong band for the last few years and if they keep that up, they could do very well. I see one concern for them, however. Their head band director Kim Shuttlesworth has left to go teach at the new Glenn high school. That could be trouble for them, or they could improve even more. They are truly a wildcard pick for this group but the potential is still there to place well. Carmel high school has always been good but seems to be overshadowed by Avon historically. I can't see them winning but a run at the top 5 is definitely possible and the same goes for William Mason. Cedar Park saw significant growth last year with a 5th place finished at BOA San Antonio and a State Championship in 5A to add to their collection of achievements. They have always run a more traditional style show so if they continue to follow that, they will do well musically for sure, but GE could be tough when competing nationally. Their show this year could be very different though and it may see them break into the top 5 for sure so we will have so see. Bottom(10-12): Marion Catholic Owasso Union None of these bands are from Texas so I don't have much to say about them. They are all very good and could make the top 6 in any given year. I think that speaks a lot to the strength of some of the bands going this year and cannot wait to see how things play out! If you have any thoughts or if I missed any key bands/points, I would love to here you all express your opinions about it!

The fact a company named "Music for All" is giving minimal effort in letting these kids compete to the fullest is pretty absurd. I am very disappointed at the fact they are refusing to judge these bands because they are during a break and there has been no attempt at pushing the full retreat back in substitute for a DM retreat to make it short. Honestly a complete contradiction to the title of the company. What a huge let down they have allowed.

So I think it's finally the time of the year that I have to predict SA because as much as I am still undecided on this crazy year we're having, SA is finally here. So jumping right on into the predictions: Topper groups (1-5): 1. Leander 2. Hebron 3. Reagan 4. CTJ 5. FloMo Upsets (6-8): 6. Round Rock 7. Bowie 8. TWHS Final locks (9-12): 9. Marcus 10. Cedar Park 11. Owasso 12. Vandegrift Potentials (13-18 Alphabetically): Cedar Ridge Coppell Hendrickson Keller Vista Ridge Wakeland Toppers: So this one was very difficult to distinguish order wise. I decided to put Leander on top by just a smidge (smidge=.1-.5 points) because they have a very exciting show that had proven strong early in the season even when I complete. It seemed to me they might have peaked early because of TMC results, but with the top 3 bring so close in that contest, it was not a let down by any means. I believe after seeing them come out on top of Cedar Park and and Vista Ride in both Area D prelims and finals they have cleaned up quite a bit since TMC. Their two biggest problems for me early were being incomplete and being unclean but it seems these problems are both alleviated to some degree. Next I decided to put Hebron as they are on the rise lately. Have been getting a lot of attention and a hear (I have not had the opportunity to see them live) that their ballad is stunning so I'm really excited to see them. I think they pass Reagan because they are hot lately and have not peaked yet while Reagan may have peaked a little early in the season and may have lost some momentum. I think Reagans show was very clean early but the real question is how much cleaner is it now? I think show difficulty might prohibit them this year, but with an incredible young new director, who knows what could happen. We are yet to see how he is able to handle the pressure of the late season stretch so I'm interested to see how he can do in his first year with so much potential. CTJ takes 4th just above FloMo cause they seem to show up to SA very clean by the end of the season and FloMo has a lot of potential with GE so I expect this to be very close too. All in all, the top 5 could be completely backwards. If this competition was held 5 times I wouldn't be surprised to see all 5 of these bands take it once so just medalling will be an incredible achievement this year. Upsets: These are the bands that I can see breaking into the top 5 quite easily but I have doubts about they chances at winning the whole thing in comparison to those above. Round Rock was very strong early this year and I can't imagine with a trip to GN coming up, they wouldn't have been cleaning like crazy lately. I think they, if any band in this section, has a chance at a possible medal. Bowie will be very clean of course but they may be a slight disadvantage GE wise compared to other bands. I believe a combination of the two is what separates the good from the great and this year, many bands have this. No saying Bowie couldn't come out with a very strong performance to knock off a few toppers, but I think it will be hard to assert themselves atop all these bands. I do however think they could take a caption visually and that would be a major player in getting them up there toward the top. Next I have The Woodlands. They are doing good this year, but it seems in the last two years so much has changed in Texas matching and they aren't keeping up enough to dominate like they did in 2013. I haven't heard much of them recently but I have no doubt they will be coming to prove that they are still a contender. Along with most bands in the top 8, they could be looking for a good shot at a caption but captions may not be the key to victory this year. Final locks: Marcus will no doubt be as musically graceful as ever, but much like TWHS, a new kind of competition has arrived and this year has been an adapt-to-survive kind of year. I can't see them doing bad by any means but I would find it hard to see them push their way past some of the top 8 bands. The top 8 have a level of competitiveness at the core of their show I just don't see in Marcus this year. Two years ago, I'd put them top 5 but now it seems they are being challenged by new upcoming bands and this is surely a new vs old battle if anything. I am excited to see what Marcus can pull out to possible be in the top 8-5. Next I have Cedar Park. Cedar Parks show this year is definitely one of the most creative shows this year. The are very clean and will be striving to prove that they have adapted and are ready to face off against the top halfers but I believe they peaked too early this year to be as competitive as they are able. They were so clean by early October, it seemed it was hard to go anywhere from that point so they have tailed off recently and may have to fight really hard for those last couple points. I think the top 5 are just as competitive as 8-12 and the bands that make that top 8 are going to be up against some hard competition so I'm interested to see how Cedar Park can compete with TWHS, Marcus, and especially the mysterious Owasso. Owasso has a history of being a top band from Oklahoma and has done well on the national level but I have little information on them other than they are not to be over looked. They could very well come in and place pretty well against even the Texas (which I think we can all agree is the most competitive state). Another strong band is Vandegrift. They always have a way of presenting an exciting show to the audience and giving the judges a taste of what a 5A(3A) band can do. I would be surprised to see them not upset at least one of the other bands in this category because they tend to be a late season band. Potentials: These are all bands that have consistently been around this area, always fighting to get in over the competition 15-25 range or have really showed in the last two years that they are on the rise. With Wakeland having an incredible season so far they could go as high as 10th in my eyes and Vista Ridge really seems to have been on the rise lately passing up Vandegrift at UIL earlier this week. Keller had been doing good and Hendrickson is always at the top of the pack when it comes to the 15-25. Cedar Ridge has been growing strong since they started and this year is no exception. It seems with all these new bands rising up around the state, Cedar Ridge is one to look out for in the coming years as a band to climb up the rankings. I haven't gotten to hear much about Coppell this year but they never seem to disappoint so I wouldn't count them out completely. Captions: This parts very very verrrry difficult for me because placements this year have been crazy, yes, but captions are even crazier. Bowie winning GE over Reagan at TMC, Leander winning BOA Austin without any captions, it's all a big mess so captions could be the most competitive part of the night. Music: Reagan Hebron Leander Marcus Visual: Reagan Leander CTJ Bowie GE: FloMo Leander Reagan Hebron So as you can see, my predictions for this are quite scattered. Part of my decision process for the top 8 groups was who would be competing for captions and this is what I got. I think this year will honestly go to the band that is most consitent overall even if that means 1 or possibly no captions. I decided Leander was 1st because they could very well be 2nd in ever caption by .1-.3 of a point and that seems to be the trend with them so far this year. FloMo has the upper hand on GE it would seem but an upset is surely possible and Music and Visual are extremely tight between the top 5 with music going quite possibly to any of the top 5, plausibly to two of the 6-8, and even strongly competed for by Cedar Park. Visual is nearly impossible to guess this year on an individual level as almost every top 12 band looks extremely impressive, almost profession, from the field so it goes to show design I think. Visually Reagan had done good as well as Bowie and Leander certainly has a shot with Round Rock not far behind. This year is truly madness for an statistically or instinctually analysis based predictions so any bodies guess is as good as mine. Placement and caption wise, no one is certain and no one is safe, but one thing is for certain, the winning band will be by only a hair and possibly a point only splitting the top 3-6 bands and that the winner will be the best all around band. No longer is just musical prowess, visual spectacles, or GE powerhouse bands guaranteed their place. Only the bands with all three even have a shot for the title. Tell me what you guys think and and if I left something out, over looked a fact, or just plain was being stupid feel free to let me know!

So I wanted to do an updated UIL scoring comparison after TMC to see how the things are comparing as of now. It could be disputed that TMC is not the most consistent or trustworthy when it comes to judging but I have the day I'm quite impressed with the judging panel. Visual: Lee Carlson is easily one of the best judges a high school marching band competition could have for Visual performance with his over 10 years as a DCI judge and having judged BOA and GN 7 times. Adam Sage is a choreographer and has worked with multiple bands including our current BOA grand champion, tarpon springs. Kyle Miller is the chief judge for TCGC and also judges for MCGC and judged WGI for 14 years. Music: Nola Jones and Jay Kennedy are not known professionally for judging but are both quite experienced with college music ensembles and their scores should be quite accurate. Percussion: Max Mullinix was percussion director at Kennesaw mountain high during their multiple finalist placements at GN and got the percussion section to 4th place at WGI world championships. Brian West is the director of percussion at TCU and they have come to be internationally recognized under his leadership. Auxiliary (Guard): Michael Townsend was a DCI guard member for 5 years and participated in the national tour of "Blast!" They definitely have some merit to the judging panel and I think it is definitely accurate enough to compare to BOA judging. That being said here are the "ranking system results I got after going through the finals recap for all the 5A bands using the scores of Music Ind, Music Ens, Visual Ind, Vidual Ens, Music GE (twice to fit UIL grading criteria) and Visual GE. I did not take into account guard and percussion so take that as you will. Leander 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cedar Park 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 Vandegrift 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 Vista Ridge 3 4 2 3 4 4 4 Lake Travis 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 Georgetown 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 Giving compiled scores of: Leander 8 Cedar Park 14 Vandegrift 24 Vista Ridge 24 Lake Travis 37 Georgetown 40 I'm not exactly sure how tie breakers are determined by UIL. If it done like BOA where GE is the tie breaker then Vandegrift would win but if it is based off of who had the highest placement in a caption then Vista Ridge would win due to 2 place in the Visual Ind category. It could also be decided by dropping the "outlier score" which would make the final scores look a little like this: leander 6 Cedar park 11 Vandegrift 20 Vista Ridge 22 Lake Travis 31 Georgetown 35 These make for some interesting results. Seeing the gap between Vandegrift and Cedar Park really doesn't surprise me too much as Cedar Park is quite good this year. Much cleaner and more difficult than I have seen a show from them in a while. I am however surprised by the fact Leander was that far ahead and that Vista Ridge is so close the Vandegrift. Leander barely slipped by at BOA SA but after finals at TMC it is obvious the addition of their closer has improved them a lot. They had almost a perfect sweep ranking system wise other that Music Ind which Cedar park never disappoints at. The thing I hope to see is some more GE from them. I'd expect no less than a full GE powerhouse of a show after last year but it has not happened yet. While it is exciting I'm hoping to see more still because it is not wrapped up quite the way I was expecting from leander after the big Rocky Point Holiday to Somewhere over the rainbow transition of last year. Maybe things will change through out the year but either Cedar Park will come inching closer and closer through cleaning their music to the point of near perfect like always, or Leander will find a way to pull ahead even further in pursuit of captions. Both UIL and BOA will be interesting between these two. Vista Ridge has a musically and visually clean show but they lack a lot of GE and Vandegrift had been boosted greatly by their percussion section so when the gaps in GE are closed and percussion is no longer a factor (in it's own category at least) the two become very competitive for 3rd place. I'm interested to see how that will play out at state.

Whoops, I meant BOA Conroe, not Houston. Sorry!

I'm interested to see what everyone thinks about the competition this year and how it will all add up at SA after a few crazy regionals. With BOA Austin finishing like this: (Round Rock 1st if not for a penalty) 1. 80.15 Leander- no captions 2. 80.10 Cedar park- Music 3. 79.75 Round rock- visual Bowie of all people making 4th after such a strong year and winning GE but still not enough to crack the top 3 although very close. BOA Houston playing out with 1. 84.85 Regan- GE, visual 2. 84.30 CTJ- Visual, music 3. 80.50 Cedar Ridge- no captions Plus the woodlands coming third in 4A without winning a single caption (no finals performance sadly) I'm interested to see how the scores line up between the two considering how low the BOA Austin scores were compared to other years and other competitions. Especially consider Cedar Ridge went from a 74.00 to an 80.50 in just a week! This year might be a scramble for Gold like we've never seen for sure!

So I'm going to come out and say it right now, I predict another LISD sweep. Just too strong a district right now to beat.

I'm not so sure about other bands around the state, but it is known that 3 (possibly 4) bands from LISD will be attending GN in 2016. It would be amazing to see TWHS, CRJ, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Vandegrift, Leander, Vista Ridge, and Hebron compete with Avon, Marion Catholic, Broken arrow, and maybe Tarpon all compete on the same stage. I'd assume with competition that strong, some of the best bands in the country wouldn't even make finals. Would be the most competitive GN yet for sure.

I think finals would look like this (though there may be a few too many texas bands) 1. CTJ 2. Broken Arrow 3. Leander 4. Avon 5. Bowie 6. Carmel 7. Marcus 8. Woodlands 9. Cedar Ridge 10. Marion Catholic 11. Cedar park 12. Hebron This is basically my national ranking based on what i know for this year

Hes been caught lol. I guess when you love your band that much you cant help but speak out on it

I do agree with you. I feel that judge was very inconsistent. If it was another judge I definitely think things would have been different.

Hebron(-5) Leander(+1,-4) CTJ(+2,-3) Woodlands(+3,-1) Marcus(+4,-1) Bowie(+2,-3) FM(+1,-1) Reagan(+3,-2) Vandy(+1,-4) LDB(+3,-2) RR(+2,-2) Friendswood(+2,-3) Spring(+1,-3) Cedar Park(+4,-1) Hendrickson(+1,-3) So I think this is my final opinion on final performances. The list show what I think they will most likely place and the numbers on the side represent how far they can move up or down depends on their and other bands runs. I have the top, middle, and bubble bands seperated and it is that way for a reason. I think any of the bands in the top have the potential to win excluding Bowie but I believe they will be very close with all the top being within 2-3 points. My middle group is all the bands that could be upsets and break the top 6 but I don't believe can win. My bubble bands are ones that have the highest chance out off the others to make finals with cedars park and Friendswood having the ability to make the lower-middle range of bands. Tell me what you guys think!

No they do not judge the preshow

Leander's points lie in it's speed*

I love watching the debates on this forum. I think personally it will be something like this... Music: Marcus Hebron CTJ Visual: CTJ Leander Woodlands GE: CTJ Leander Hebron It's will be a very interesting year because any one of these bands winning a single caption could be a good run for 1st. While music is a big topic of discussion I think the winner will ultimately be determined by visual and GE performances. In Visual, it seems the CTJ has a good show (I haven't actually gotten the opportunity to see it so I'm using what I've heard) but I believe that Woodlands may have another late season push possibly beating them. Leander's points lie it speed. With a tempo exceeding 190, a clean performance could also win this caption. For now, it's almost impossible to determine who could win this, as it's so close it will depend on the quality of their runs. On the other hand, GE I believe will come down to Leander and CTJ. Leander's show is packed with GE and I believe they could take this but CTJ definitely shouldn't be disregarded in this caption. As for Hebron, I find it hard to see them winning but they will place highly and combined with a possible win in the music caption, they have a good chance too. Based on all this, I think the final way look like this... 1-3 alphabetized: CTJ Hebron Leander 4-9 and possible 1-3 upsets alphabetized: Bowie Flower mound LDB Marcus Round Rock Woodlands 10-14 alphabetized: Cedar Park Hendrickson Vandegrift Westlake Tell me what you guys think about it and if I forgot anything?