zururoua

I feel really bad for the people and bands in the Houston area, here in SA it's been pretty OK, just steady rain where I live.

I'm feeling TWHS or Vandegrift for this one, but Reagan or Leander could easily slip in there.

I've decided that my preseason top 5 is going to be Avon, Flomo, The Woodlands, Vandegrift, and CTJ in no particular order. The other groups I could see landing here are Leander, Hebron, Cedar Park, Reagan, and Marcus.

I believe CTJ had minor changes both going into last year and this year. From their website it looks like they got two new assistant directors this year.

Sure, but so is everyone else. Flomo may have the formula down, but it's not some huge secret that they pulled off such a successful season last year. Everyone's going to try and replicate that level of success this year. Flomo may be good but nobody is good enough to just say "we're gonna have an undefeated season" and it happens, at least not the second time. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone showed up to BOA SA as clean as Flower Mound was last year or more so. Avon is attending in the neighborhood of 7 BOA events in 2017, if I'm not mistaken. The current record of most BOA finals appearances in one year is held by Winston Churchill and CTJ (iirc) at 4. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I really hope my local schools (CTJ and Reagan) learn from last year and adapt. If Reagan can do a more difficult show and not rely on soloists as much as last year (more full ensemble), and CTJ can clean more early season, maybe go for a slightly easier show (but still in their crazy style), I think they could both be competing for a medal. This year we don't get a direct contest between the two until SA, since CTJ is attending Midland instead of Conroe. This event is going to be as stacked as ever and the top 5 will separated by like 1.2 points or something ridiculous. Remember that everyone knows what Flower Mound did last year and will be trying to do that themselves (in terms of cleanliness and execution), they're not just going to sit back and let Avon and Flomo steamroll everyone. It's true that Flomo knows the formula for that level of execution already, but there's surely and even better formula that someone could stumble upon. Avon will be trying for the record of most wins, finals appearances, and BOA events attended in one season, like they're trying to become a Cedar Point roller coaster.

New Braunfels, Seguin, and San Marcos could technically be considered part of SA. I live in San Antonio as well (near CTJ and Ronald Reagan), I wouldn't say they necessarily are, but I predict that in the next 15-20 years San Antonio and Austin will be conjoined by these cities in the same vein of the DFW metroplex. The cities between are some of the fastest growing in the country.

Yeah, wrong SFA, whoops. I've lost track of where everyone is, haha

The Leander and Round Rock areas along with Bowie and SFA probably account for the entire top ten in Austin. There sure are a lot though!

1. CTJ 2. Bellevue West 3-4. Timber Creek/Berkner

At the moment my favorite show that I know of here is Vandegrift. Not a huge fan of Leander's compared to their shows from the past three years. I haven't watched the Cedar Park preview yet but once I do I'll decide where to place them. Guessing Leander and CTJ are going to want redemption from their relatively low placements at Nats, and end up having strong momentum early season. Cedar Park did much better than most predicted and may continue improving drastically (think Flomo from 2014 into 2015, they improved insanely from SA to Nats and then became the monster they were last year and in 2015 and will presumably be to some extent this year as well). Depending on what CTJ and Round Rock put out there could be an insane competition for first. The blanks will be filled in/shifted when I see anything from Cedar Park, CTJ, or Round Rock (other attending groups as well, but assuming top 5 stay the same) 1. ? 2. Vandegrift 3. ? 4. Leander 5. ? If I see anything SUPER impressive from another attending group I'll definitely consider sliding things around, I could definitely see Bowie, Hendrickson and Round Rock fighting for 5th if the formers are as strong/stronger than last year. It's going to be a crazy competition, that's for sure.

Consistency is good, but it doesn't mean that a group having an unusually good year can't sneak their way into a medal, caption, or win. If Avon pulls an entertaining show (last year's was not and it cost them to Carmel who had a much more interesting show) they will definitely be likely to win, but against every strong Texas group they're going to have to be musically very strong, and that means woodwinds too. A Harloff hornline can win brass in DCI, but in BOA you have to have good woodwinds too. Speaking of consistency, I'm wondering if CTJ will keep up their top 5 streak this year (it'd be the 6th or 7th time iirc). I could definitely see a lot of groups overtaking them if they're having a weaker year. Obviously nothing big has happened yet, but I'm not the biggest fan of Leander's show this year based on what we've seen so far, I prefer Vandegrift at the moment and could see them winning Austin again. I'd be very surprised if Avon and Flomo aren't in top 3, and I can see a LOT of groups taking that other spot depending on what happens this year.

Got to see everyone live @ Southwestern Championships on Saturday. I've been a huge Bloo fan for three years and am generally very critical of BD, but this year BD has put on one of my favorite shows of all time, and is the first time in a WHILE that I have preferred BD to Bluecoats. Their show is just so high-energy, loud, and insane. The entertainment value reminds me of Bloo last year, who had BY FAR the most fun show. This year, SCV, Bloo, and BD all have really fun shows (I like Crown's but it's not nonstop fun like the other three, it has moments) but seeing BD live I would have been VERY surprised if anyone else had won. They move a ton, and put on a super awesome show with an insane musical book. I also LOVE Boston's show this year. I'm hoping they edge out Cavs for 5th at World Championships, though 6th is still nothing to sneeze about. I'd also like Phantom (and maybe BK) to beat out Cadets. The Cadets were kinda dirty and their design is not near as entertaining or innovative. Phantom and BK both had more enjoyable/dynamic shows. I doubt it will happen but it'd be cool if it did.

The only group here I can see beating Flomo is Hebron, and it would require some design changes from their shows the past few years. It's really weird saying that considering they nearly won Nats in 2015, but the standards for design and execution have increased drastically in even the short period since then. And this is all assuming Flomo stays as powerful as they have been. At this point it's so early that it's hard to say anything since we haven't seen anyone yet and some shows haven't even been announced, but early speculation is fun. I'm not a huge Marcus fan, but after LD Bell's questionable absence from SA finals last year (they deserved a lot better) I don't know if they'll beat Marcus. Based on traditional preference I'd say: 1. Flomo 2. Hebron 3. LD Bell 4. Marcus I'll reevaluate after actually seeing any part of the shows. Every year is different. However, I think it's more likely that LISD takes top three with Bell getting 4th. Hopefully they fight their way back into SA finals and the SA scoring last year was a fluke (because they were amazing). After that I think the rest of the finalists will be any selection out of Duncanville, Coppell, James Martin, Keller, Keller Central, Vista Ridge, Timber Creek, Wakeland, and Waxahachie. After last year, it's definitely Flomo's to lose.

I really hope Avon doesn't sweep captions. They're really good but my Texas pride is too strong

You can't forget that they stole GE from Flomo in prelims at SA last year.

I'd love to see TWHS be as good as they were in 2013. When they're good, they're one of my favorite programs in Texas

I suppose that's a good point, but I don't think other bands are going to just let Flomo keep steamrolling them for the third year in a row. Now that everyone has seen what can and must be done to win this year, it's going to be a LOT more competitive with everyone trying to replicate Flomo 2016's cleanliness. The execution bar has been set, it's just a matter of who else can reach it.

Sure, but you could say the same for CTJ until after 2014. Things differ a LOT from year to year.

I don't see Flomo dropping too much but I do think they won't be as unstoppable as last year.

I'd love to see TWHS take first, they've put on some of my favorite productions, especially last year's. We'll have to see if they can top Flomo and the usual crew but I'll make my real picks once we have any idea what's going on with everyone.

Bands like The Woodlands and CTJ might be at an advantage with this rule since they've been doing difficult late-peaking shows for a while now, but I don't think they'll be able to catch Avon in visual unless they do something really special. Only time will tell, though.

^ I agree, Round Rock is great and I'd definitely put them near the top.

I'm gonna be excited if someone other than Flower Mound or Avon wins.

I want to see a band with Balmages's Summer Dances as an opener.