TrenBS

Here is my predictions going just based off of the trend from 2023-2024, non-objective list of course, and free to disagree etc. (gets tiring writing that out even though its important to keep in mind haha) 1. Lone Star 2. McKinney High 3. Argyle 4. Rock Hill 5. Lakeview 6. Walnut Grove 7. Little Elm 8. Celina 9. Memorial 10. Liberty

Most programs Ive seen (at least for north DFW) refuse to let kids onto the bus without their water jugs since its a part of their uniform checklist, any program that doesnt have this as a requirement to go to any game, show, competition, or heck especially rehearsals is really setting them up for failure If this isnt mandatory for EVERY school, Im frankly shocked there hasnt been more lawsuits or reports of heatstroke

Director changes have been handled very well at least on the short run, in recent years. Many bigger schools with director changes keep the same methods throughout the first year and ease into the new head director's methodology, for better or worse, so I expect these schools to either remain in their spots or some bump up a lot.

I know about Wylie East but is Schroeder leaving Wylie HS? I havent heard of anything like that happening unless you mean fine arts director or the new assistant directors

I see, would say a Scholastic A and a National A have a major point difference in regards to like obvious differences (like is an SA score of 70 even remotely comparable to a National A 70, or is National A way beyond the Scholastic A standards?) I know Independent and Open make it muddy but talking mainly from the next in line in regards to NTCA

As somebody relatively new to looking at Winter Guard but familiar with band and predictions, predicting something like WGI in the current format seems difficult, and would likely need a more robust system of prediction like its own website. I dont think its a bad idea, heck I think somebody with some coding experience could easily set up a website that splits the predictions by contest, THEN by classification just so you dont have to predict 30+ groups placements at a time, since generally most WG contests dont have a finals. But I think hosting it on TXBands or Hornranks website would need some heavy restructuring

Im overall pretty new to watching winter guard, is there anywhere that explains the divisions/score differences between them, and if these scores translate at all in the WGI equivalent?

Plus, McKinney MI isnt happening on the last September week, but now its usual schedule with Bedford, so that opens up a lot for the level of programs weve come to expect at WMI and Melissa

Yeah, and I don't see how adding an additional 3 slots that can be split between 3 of the 5-10 areas would be "throwing UIL/TMEA out of the window". If the rule were to be adding a slot for each state finalist in the area, making it 12-14 extra slots, yes it would be extremely excessive, but considering the winners since post-COVID have been the same 2 bands in notoriously difficult areas, bringing a little levity to those areas is not the worst idea since the whole concept of ignoring balance was already ignored with current area C, which is by far the weakest in regards to state rep between them, area B, and J (not a single finalist while the other 2 DFW areas had 2-3, could've been 3-4 if Prosper and Timber got 9-12 less points). But I guess having balanced area contests isnt good for the activity, why dont we combine area A with J then so we can continue cutting down on state slots? Because obviously Texas band is going downhill in regards to skill and more representation would be harmful to advancing this little activity

C. #1 was a long time coming honestly, the 5 judge system was dated even back in the mid-2000s, and with how robust BOA judging and even local contest judging has become, it has made area a very weird and almost random feeling competition at times (most of the time besides the state/area finals locked bands) I hope C. #3 and #4 pass, color guard in Texas is growing and given how much shows are being designed with color guard in mind nowadays, we should absolutely have them be a very noticeable factor in the overall placements, and caption awards are always welcome The new business is very interesting, I really like the concept of 5. if they make timing more lenient, and especially #3, given how consistent the past state winners have been (Hebron 24, Vandegrift 23, Vandegrift 22, Hebron 21), giving bands like Prosper, Wylie, and Brandeis better chances of making state without being monopolied out is a good change in my opinion

Ill go ahead and say the McKinney schools are all very very likely to attend, and I am very very excited to see what North and Boyd in particular are planning, I know nothing about McKinney High so Im hoping for the best for them

Frisco is getting antsy with having a non 5A school in their zone for sure lol

I think traditional predictions so early (11 months early) would be kind of redundant and also look pretty identical to how this year played out, so I think something that would be more interesting would be to look at each of the traditional finalist bands and how they would perform under the new judging system that may be implemented at the December 3rd meeting (woodwind, brass, percussion, visual individual, visual ensemble) and if we would see any significant shakeups: 1. Hebron: They would excel in the woodwind and brass sections but would fall behind Flower Mound and Marcus in the percussion section, and visual captions would likely just be more inconsistent. 2. Marcus: They would dominate the percussion section, the brass and woodwind captions would be a fight between Flower Mound, and if I had to make any guesses, I think Flower Mound would win woodwinds and Marcus would take brass. Visually I really think it would depend on the year but ensemble would likely be higher. 3. Flower Mound: Flower Mound would most likely dominate visual individual if anything, maybe the woodwind caption but Hebron would be a tough nut to crack in that regard, but I think between Marcus and Flower Mound we would see the area champion have a bit more variety than the past few years. 4. Prosper: I believe this change would make Prospers scoring here MUCH more consistent, I think woodwinds and brass will swap between dominant or below other bands, depending on which section is stronger given the year, but will definitely solidify their 4th placements in visual captions, and will become the most likely to place 4th every year. 5. Braswell: Braswell is the weirdest to judge for the future, they jumped so fast and we have no indication this will sustain, but we also have no indication on if it will fall, so at most I think they will underperform in percussion and visual individual, but excel in brass and visual ensemble, but we will have to see their progress next year. 6. Wylie: Wylie usually performs well at this contest because of how clean they are which got rewarded due to how broad the judges have to look in each caption, and with more tight captions I can see them losing some ground since general effect is basically a non-factor, but I don't see them missing finals. They will definitely do great in visual captions, maybe competiting with the top 3 if color guard is heavily weighted. 7. McKinney High: The McKinney schools will definitely do stronger in percussion captions, and I can see McKinney High being a much more consistent group in finals, but I am not sure if they will break ground in other captions unless they just improve significantly, which isn't really up to the judging changes itself. 8. Wylie East: Wylie East will likely do better or worse on a broader scale, Id say they will do better across the visual captions and a bit worse in the music captions besides potentially the brass, but again this is a group I think we will have to see next year since they generally underperformed compared to previous years. 9. McKinney Boyd: I know Boyd is going to have major improvements in almost every regard since they had a tiny senior class (12% seniors across the band roughly), but in regards to judging, I believe they will see large improvements in the percussion and woodwind captions, everything else will be relatively consistent. 10. For the last finalist, I think Rock Hill will come back in the finalist groups, them and Plano East will likely become the consistent last finalists until realignment changes just about everything in 2026.

I would say the only school who had 100% the wrong placement was Cypress Woods, because they got TWENTY NINTH in brass… they had some of the most symphonic sounds in the stadium and while after watching state I wouldnt put them in finals, they were absolutely placed way too low, they shouldve been in the 18-22 range for sure because they sounded objectively fantastic Otherwise I cant really speak for the other bands outside of a subjective opinion, North Shore definitely needs some respect though cause they sounded great and the show was super enjoyable, one of my favorites from prelims for sure

Boyd alumni here, and we have had to deal with this exact situation since 2008, here's a little history on LISD for fun lmao. At first it was prime Marcus and Bell/Richland, 2010 had Marcus and Bell with Hebron on the rise, then Plano East in 2012, then Flower Mound became strong after 2013, then the realignment that caused areas B and C to look like how most mid-2010s band people recognize (thank god, prime Marcus, AND strong LD Bell with Hebron post-2015 would've been an absolute travesty), then things stayed consistent with Wylie as the state bubble group with replacing 5th with John horn or Sachse for 2018 and 2021 respectively. 2022 and 2023 were in general the most balanced area C (old b) had been in years since Prosper was still recovering after COVID and with Boyd hitting their massive senior class which made the top 4-7 super competitive. Then, the top 4-8 with 2023 and Wylie East moving to 6A, and now the Area J split which has all the problems of 2008 Area B 5A without the 5 bands to state policy that at least gave Richland and Haltom their representation back in the day, so the TRUE area B has had a wild ride leading up to over a decade of realignment, gerrymandering, and rise and falls of many old successful programs lol This was more of a history lesson rather than "Boyd gets screwed by alignment boo hoo hoo", since really Boyd sucked in marching until 2014 with the director change, and never really made area finals until 2014, and tbh they've never been the potential state qualifying group of the area besides 2016 and 2022, MAYBE 2018 since they were 5th in prelims, but that easily could've been due to the bad judging. Just thought Id give some insight into how truly dominant LISD is and has been, and has really stood the test of time compared to old powerhouses like LD Bell (who are still very very good)