BassoonSOLO5456

I can see Reedy and Lebanon Trail making high placements and am excited to see how everything plays out.

Using the same logic of putting LT above reedy despite reedy placing higher in Wylie, why is the Colony so much lower than Emerson? When In prelims of Birdville they beat Emerson by 19 points and only lost to them by 3 in finals?

I will say this, LT always cleans up a LOT before Area comes around, but it will be interesting to see how area judges react to Reedy's show this year. Argyle also has top 5 potential. 

Area is next Saturday for 5A  

Here are predictions based on results and trends:
1. Wakeland (one of the best bands in the country and have a high chance of medaling at state again this year)
2. Lone Star (having their best year yet and could honestly win here too)
3–9 can literally be anyone but here is what I think will happen
3. Argyle (might be a little bit high but their band has definitely sized up a lot and they’re coming in seeking revenge from what happened here last year, they will have to put their best performance forward with this area being the way it is but can for sure do it, after being decently close to making finals at BOA Bedford and having a good showing in the Melissa competition, they will definitely have a shot at making state)
4. Lebanon Trail (they were a state finalist last year after making through a crazy area competition last year, they’re show is really good this year and is definitely state finalist capable once again this year, it will be hard to recap with this competition shaping up to be even crazier this year, but I think that they will come in clutch like last year and will breakthrough to state once again)
5. Reedy (definitely one of the best bands, if not, the best band that Reedy has ever had and we’ll see if they can make state for the 1st time in school history, they will have to recap on their momentum from Wylie and breakthrough to get into the state championship, it will be close, but can definitely do it)
6. McKinney North (might be kind of low but can definitely medal here at this competition, their show is very similar to last year’s, which ended up being very successful by making state last year, and we’ll see how they can potentially recap on their state appearance from last year, with the area being even crazier this year, I have a feeling that they might end up here, but we’ll what they can do this year)
7. Walnut Grove (definitely a band that has taking a big step up this year with an impressive showing at McKinney and BOA Prosper and will for sure be in that mix to make state, they will have to put their best performance forward, but are definitely capable of breaking through, they may be new, but they are rising very quickly)
8. Emerson (very good show for Emerson this year and could honestly be in that mix to make state as well, similar to Walnut Grove, they are on the rise despite being a new school, but after very good showings at Birdville and McKinney, they will be a band to watch out for)
9. The Colony (after winning Don Hanna once again, they will definitely be a contender as well to make state, it will depend on if they can hang on with these rising bands and if they can breakthrough, they are for sure capable of it)
10. Independence (after not making finals last year, I think that Independence  will find their way back into finals, I think that it will come down to them and the other Frisco bands to fight for that last spot)
 
This area is definitely one of the hardest to predict and we’ll see what will happen. This is starting to remind me of 6A Area D where there are like 7-9 bands that have potential to make state finals, but only a few will get in. I can’t wait to see how this area shapes out in a few weeks.

I think these placements could very well be what ends up happening later this month but with this area being so rich in talent it’s very difficult to know. I’m sure Argyle and Lebanon Trail are going to focus a large amounts of time on cleaning and it’ll come down to what the other bands do to compete with that. We’re reaching the part in the season where there’s only so much that can be fixed and changed so the bands starting late might be a little too late. Overall I’m so hyped to watch these bands and it’s sure to be salty!

argyle- a pictures worth:
Wow Argyle!!! They really are motivated to make state and do well at nats this year, and they have a very strong chance!!! Lovely stuff from the Flute and Euphonium soloist into a massive opening hit!!! Huge brass sounds all around, amazing soloists, and massive shout out to that single tenor player in Perc, you were heard! Tons of visual GE, lots of picture sets throughout, just such a well designed and very well executed show. Definitely our AA champs, could see them surprise some people come results, amazing job Argyle!!

Argyle HS-
Alright, their wall of sound is amazing! They are marching very well and have made a great adapt to the 5A classification these past few years. I just can't get over how well they sound! Their show is ready for not just Area, but a possible 5A state apperance and Grand Nationals apperance! Amazing job Argyle HS! 

have you seen Emerson, because I don't know if there at the level of LT or Argyle yet, or really a good number of bands here. Ofc Frisco schools are known for getting good fast, but they like just opened. I've seen Lovejoy's show and they are much better than last year. Def not state but I think they'll make finals. Anna's show is good but I think they need time, but obviously we'll get a good look at some of these bands next weekend. 

Can I get the recording please?

If anyone wants to check out how the Wylie ISD shows are coming along pre-Area J, both Wylie High and Wylie East will be at BOA Prosper, along with all of McKinney ISD and Prosper ISD

WAIT IS THIS REAL?!?!?

It was probably recognized by youtube and the audio got taken down. But on this forum someone posted the video of their game and it had their shows in it, but the video got pivated.

Id like to see it if that is all good

they probably had to turn it off for the copyright laws, because of music licensing.

Frrr, when I saw their show I was completely bewildered with how good it was.

I don't have any performance videos, but I do think that the LT Mellos might have posted some of their music on their Instagram account.

Here’s the football game this past Thursday — The Colony vs. Wakeland 
 
Wakeland @ around 1:31:30
The Colony @ around 1:43:00
(Audio quality isn’t the best)

Can I get it once you have it

I’ll have one of McKinney North next Wednesday, Ill send in DMs like the Lone Star guy lol

I had the chance to watch Frisco HS, I have to say I like the pre-show. It gives off an "enchanted" style and I definitely will keep an eye on the show.

That will be a great halftime!

Wylie HS plays Flower Mound this week. Excited for that one!

First performance minus preshow.
 
Looking good so far!

Predictions 
*=State MBC Qualifier
1st-2nd Bubble
🥇Frisco Wakeland HS*: This is one of the most consistently good programs in the state. I've seen snippets of their show and the brass sounds great. Woodwinds sound like they could take their respective caption at state again. However, I don't think their show is something any more innovative than years past, and they may experience a slight plateau or even dip in their competition season results compared to last year. Other than that there's not much else to say. They're Wakeland.
🥈Frisco Lone Star HS*: Drove to their community preview in Frisco. Certainly a noticeable step forward in design. They sound PHENOMENAL for this early in the year, brass section is cranking more than ever before, and it's already cleaner than most, with a tougher book. I think they will once again be a crowd favorite, just from their opener alone. That said I think these top 2 are pretty locked. Lone Star's had nothing but an upward trajectory since 2020. They won here in 2022, though Wakeland was famously not there because of a UIL disqualification. There is also questions on how valid their win in Area Prelims last year was, what with spread-out performance times. However, I think the fact that Lone Star's had their foot in the door for a while there says that Wakeland is no longer untouchable in Area B. I see Wakeland still a little ahead, but I think they could definitely swap some ordinals with each other this year in finals. Lone Star could maybe even be a poor finals performance by Wakeland away from a more "undisputed" Area Championship.
 
3rd-5th Bubble
 
🥉Frisco Lebanon Trail HS*: I haven't seen LT yet, but they are a great program with some 5A state experience under their belt. Their show "Fascinating People" appears to be a step in the right direction this year, with a more "outside the box" show concept. I feel like that has been a consistent hold-back for this program, and it took them several years to escape their trend of safe, classical, albeit clean shows. I see some Chick Corea in their repertoire and that makes me excited. What the band staff does in terms of design with the show they've got, is what will make or break them against bands like Argyle, who are pretty heated up after last year's 4th to 5th place movement in finals.
4 McKinney North*: Not seen them yet. A lot of people talk about how this program gets "underscored" in UIL competitions because of their more BOA-oriented show designs. And while I see why people see it that way, I think North has gotten some pretty justifiable UIL scorings over the last few years, maybe even higher than expected. They've been a pretty consistent program since 2022, placing 3rd the last two years at Area, and making the SMBC last year for the first time in a while. I think they've found a neat identity with their jazzy shows and they remind me a lot of the Mandarins in terms of recent show design. I think they could be anywhere in the 3-5 bubble, but we'll see as the year plays out. 
5 Argyle HS: I put this program in 5th because I don't think I'm quite sold on them being fully on par yet with the big 5A bands. What they do have going for them, is lots of historically great state runs and I'm guessing some fired-up students after 2023's Area Finals. While this band IS similar in size to McKinney North, I feel like they still have a bit of 4A blood left in terms of show design, and North uses what they have far more effectively in my opinion. However, I would love for Argyle to prove me dead wrong, because I think they have found the top 5 bubble nice and comfortable these last two years, and are ready to make a swing for a possible top 4 or 3.
I think this top 5 is pretty set and will not be disrupted. 
 
6-10 Bubble
 
6 Frisco Independence HS: I think last year was a fluke. They have a great big sound for a smaller band, and they remind me a lot of Argyle, but a little louder.
7 The Colony HS: To be honest I don't really know where this program's headed. They never seem to attract a lot of attention in competition season leading up to this event (but I think they should get more credit), but always seem to end up in the middle-upper finals bubble. I think they'll stay there for now. I see them literally anywhere 6-10, or they could just randomly give Top 5 a small run for its money. 
8 Frisco Emerson HS: They really surprised me last year. I thought early on they'd be a dark horse for finals and ended up right. Lots of talent for a medium-size 5A band, especially being so new. I see them in the 8-12 range.
9 Anna HS: Another 4A band moving up, another with some good state experience. I think they will hover in the 8-14 range.
10 Lucas Lovejoy HS: This band is a lot like The Colony in terms of placement history, but has definitely been more volatile, with some historical 5th, 6ths, then 9ths and non-finals finishes. They consistently do very well in the prior competition season then get snubbed come Area, but I don't think they will break that Top 5 bubble. Anywhere from 6-12 for me.
Finals Bubble (In Descending Order): Frisco Memorial HS, Frisco Centennial HS, Frisco Reedy HS, Frisco Liberty HS, Prosper Walnut Grove HS
HUGE GRAIN OF SALT FOR THIS POST:  It's August. 95% of these are going to be wrong.