I don't think there are ever any shoe-in's in marching band. A lot of people think there are "guarantees" every season before anyone has announced any kind of whisper about a single show. Sure there are always going to be bands that stick in your mind as having a really good past few years, but I believe that until you have seen their 2009 field production you cannot reasonably know what is going to happen. Even with top bands things could go wrong, someone could trip and cause a massive collision possibly preventing their band from making finals or placing in the top 3 at State. Also just because a band has a successful recent past does not automatically mean their upcoming season is going to be as good as the last. There is a whole new group of kids and and whole new show. Things happen. To provide an example you could look at Reagan. Ask anyone 4 years ago if they could be stopped and 99.9% of the time they would have said no. Look at them now, instead of being at the top of the finalist bands they are towards the bottom. You also never know when some band will come from the shadows and become top dog. Where was Marcus 4 or 5 years ago? They were making finals but mostly in the bottom 5 or so. No where near the level they have become now. Every band works hard to be where they are and they don't win because of their name. They win because of what they put on the field.
Okay that was my rant.