QUOTE
nstead of trying to guess who will place 1 - 57, I decided to take a different approach: I got the list of bands attending off the BOA website, and pasted them into excel; Then, I split them up into 4 groups:
Group A: Made the finals at the last BOA contest they attended, or at San Antonio last year (+ 13 & 14th place) (only took top 6 from Houston, due to number of big bands that dropped out).
Group B: Received a 1st division rating at the last BOA contest they attended.
Group C: Received a 2 - 4 division rating at the last BOA contest they attended.
Unknowns: Have not attended a BOA regional in the last 2 years.
Even though they should technically be in "Unknown", I went ahead and put Langham Creek in Group A.
I also split Group A and B into two blocks; the first one being who I would consider to be the "heavies". Within the blocks, all bands are in alphabetical order.
If I had to guess who would win, I would say Marcus: I saw their show at Arlington, and it was incredible. But anything can happen...
I'd also like to point out that every band (except for Duncanville) that was in the Texas State UIL finals last year will be at this contest.
"Group A" Bands: (17)
L.D. Bell H.S.
Langham Creek H.S.
Marcus H.S.
Richland H.S.
Ronald Reagan H.S.
The Woodlands H.S.
Westfield H.S.
Winston Churchill H.S.
Berkner H.S.
Cedar Park H.S.
Clear Brook H.S.
Colleyville Heritage H.S.
Coppell H.S.
Haltom H.S.
Hebron H.S.
James Bowie H.S.
Spring H.S.
"Group B" Bands: (12)
Brazoswood H.S.
Cypress Falls H.S.
Harlingen South H.S.
Judson H.S.
Klein H.S.
United H.S.
Bel Air H.S.
Creekview H.S.
Fossil Ridge H.S.
Leander H.S.
The Woodlands College Park H.S.
W. Charles Akins H.S.
"Group C" Bands: (13)
Clear Lake H.S.
Columbus H.S.
Hidalgo H.S.
John B. Alexander H.S.
Lewisville H.S.
Oak Ridge H.S.
Sharyland H.S.
Smithson Valley H.S.
Victoria Memorial H.S.
Vista Ridge H.S.
Waller H.S.
Whitesboro H.S.
William B. Travis H.S.
"Unknown" Bands: (15)
Azle H.S.
Clements H.S.
Edinburg H.S.
Edinburg North H.S.
Gatesville H.S.
Georgetown H.S.
Jarrell H.S.
La Joya H.S.
Llano H.S.
Lopez H.S.
Northwest H.S.
Randolph H.S.
Roma H.S.
Samuel Clemens H.S.
Uvalde H.S.
I think that this persons theory is reasonable except for one part.."(only took top 6 from Houston, due to number of big bands that dropped out)". This part does not make sense to me because it shouldn't matter who dropped out because the facts still stand as to who made FINALS. You can't pick and choose who you want to include. That just isn't fair to the bands who worked just as hard as any other. Bands 7-10 could have made it whether the ones who dropped out attended or not. There is no way of knowing. So by you excluding them is almost an ultimate insult in my book. All the 57 competing bands at BOA San Antonio have just as much chance of making finals as any other. In my opinion I like when an underdog comes in and makes finals because seeing the same "power houses" over and over again kind of ruins the competition when you already have in your mind who is going to be in the top 3. What makes a good competition are the upsets because you know that is all people talk about the next day. Sometimes just making a BOA finals for one band means more than getting the first place trophy. So I really think this person needs to go back and revise their list if they are going to have correct statistics.