I agree. People predict too many bands as "locks" due to their average performance quality. However, thats not really how it works. If LD Bell (however unlikely) somehow broke time and ended up falling apart, they would not make finals. Obviously this is an extreme example, but the same principle applies: Judges judge what is on the field, not the average performance of the band. If a band from Knowhereville, TX shows up, has a decent show, and demomstrates that (for that performance) they have the highest marching/playing ability of the group, they should/would be rated first. You need that principle becuase if there wasn't any hope of doing well, the bottom half of the bands at any BOA Regional wouldn't show up! There always has to be a chance for the little guys to suceed.
That being said, these are bands that are LIKELY making finals:
Bowie, LD Bell, Marcus
Everyone else is in danger of getting out knocked by a band with once-in-a-year performance.