UIL 4A Area D 2024

[guardieeee]

  On 2/15/2024 at 12:57 AM, tastiestbiscuit123 said:

After this year's results, I think—and this is said every year by everyone—this year is going to be the biggest and most interesting year for Area D.

One thing to note is that 2023 was definitely the biggest year for Area D thus far. It was the second time in the UIL Marching Band's 46 year history that Area D sent 6 bands to State and the most bands attended the contest (this year, 32 bands advanced and attended the Area Level, 2021 had 31 bands advance but only 30 attended). It also saw La Grange and Venus High Schools' first time advancing to Finals and their best seasons yet (12th and 9th respectively.), Robinson Advanced to State for the first time in 9 years, Castleberry Advanced for the first time in 5 years, Springtown did not Advance for the first time in 13 years, China Spring and Alvarado saw their best finishes yet (1st and 2nd), and so many more accomplishments were made outside of the Finalists.

I know it's big, bold, and kind of high compared to this year's numbers, but I'm confident in saying that I think 36 Bands will Advance to Area this year. Area E, which has 1 less band than Area D (42 compared to 43) had 36 bands at Area, so it is likely. The reason I think this is because there were bands with their first Area appearance in years, showing us and themselves their ability, and even some bands not advance that almost always have. This would allow 12 bands to advance to Finals again, and 7 to advance to State. If this doesn't happen though, it would be a big surprise to me to see less than 6 bands advance to State again.

Now, for my 'insight.' This is for State Qualifiers and Area Finalists:

 

State:

Of course, China Spring will be a lock, but that and maybe Burnet are the only for sure schools. They've both made State 6 and 5 consecutive times respectively, and this is likely to be a continued trend. China Spring has a high likelihood of even being a State medalist next year with how well they've done in years past.

Alvarado and Gatesville are highly likely contenders as well. Once again, Alvarado saw their best finish, and Gatesville saw their third best finish, and even went on to end their season better than ever before. These two schools (one even being a Division 2) getting 2nd and 3rd at Area is just one way to show that Area D is changing, and I think these two will be spearheading this new era of bands. They're not locks like the last two, yet, but I'm sure they will be very soon.

Castleberry and Robinson are curious cases. Robinson has been an Area Finalist very consistently and close to making State every year, so they're likely to make it next year, but they may also falter and fall back to just a Finalist. Castleberry, on the other hand, is not as stable. This may have been their first time in five years advancing, but it was also their second time ever advancing (Robinson, for comparison, has been the State Champion 5 times, and have attend plenty more times than that). They did not attend the 2020 Area Season, got 9th in the 2021 Season, and 15th in the 2022 Season. It may have been an extended hiccup, but only time will tell.

Fredericksburg has got to come back with a vengeance, I'm banking on it. 5th in Prelims in 2022, dropped to 8th in Finals, and from 8th to 7th (State Alternate) this year, those incoming Seniors are the only ones left who remember advancing to State. Especially if we see 7 State Qualifiers, Fredericksburg can know that they have a high possibility of advancing, if they put in the work of course; nothing is guaranteed.

Springtown, woof. The audible gasps from both sides of the stands, kids and adults alike, when 8th place was announced has got to have hurt the '21 and '22 Area D Champs. I mean, they went from 9th at State in '21 to 15th in '22, but dropping from 1st to 8th in Area has got to bite. These guys are coming into the 2024 Season with maximum effort and will walk into that stadium on November 2nd showing those judges why they belong—or so we're lead to believe. Will this be just a fluke? A one-time mistake that will never happen again? Or, is this only the beginning? Has the King been overthrown for good? We'll see what the answers are in a few months.

Last little note is on the other four. Venus and La Grange might surprise given what I said earlier, but I'm not too sure this Season will be their time; I think they need another year or two to establish their dominance. I think it's going to be awhile before we see Kennedale back in the game, if ever. From what I saw of their new Head Director, she seems entirely able to take them to State, but the last two years have not been kind to Kennedale. Skipping the 2021 Season definitely hurt them and may have caused a comeback to be extremely difficult, maybe even impossible. Finally, Boerne: I think they're Area Finalists, but not State Qualifiers. Going into Area this year, I saw and heard so much praise for them, but 9th in Prelims and 11th in Finals kind of told me that maybe the show was a fan favorite, not necessarily a Judge favorite. However, making Area Finals twice may be the confidence boost they need to soar to higher levels. If one thing's for sure, nothing is consistent in Marching Band.

These are the only bands I think have a true chance of making it. Maybe Taylor will have a comeback after 3 years, and I think Jarrell got cocky and complacent and will do better next year, but I'm not betting on either.

 

Area Finals:

All 12 of the bands previously mentioned are, obviously, very likely to make Finals, but there are other players in the game.

Namely, Taylor, Jarrell, and Godley. All three of them were finalists in 2021, got 14th, 9th, and 11th in 2022 (only one made Finals), respectively, and none of them made Finals this year. Next year is what decides for the future for each: are they Area Finalists, or Area Qualifiers? I think, Qualifiers (maybe one will be a Finalist), and I'll explain why in a bit.

My wild card, hot take, whatever you want to call it, though, is Benbrook. In 2021, they got 30th Place (out of 30); in 2022, they didn't even Advance to Area; in 2023, they got 16th, beating 15 other bands. As I've said numerous times already, this might be a one-time deal, but I'm not so sure. Look at La Grange, who went from 16th to 12th. If they can do it, so can Benbrook.

Other than this, maybe Lake Worth, Bandera, or even Madisonville could shoot up there, but all three of them have been consistently in the teens for years. Wimberley surprised me with 21st, but they also got 21st in 2021, so maybe not too surprising. Manor New Tech might come back and have a possibility of snagging a spot after not making Area this year.

 

Now, I talked a lot about the 'New Era,' and how I think this year will play out given this. What I mean is the changing in bands. Now that the UIL SMBC is every year instead of every other year, and since Lake Belton left Area D back in '21, I think a gap has opened; bands have to work their hardest every single year instead of how it was for 3 decades with every even year (for the case with 4A). I think this was visible in 2022, but definitely evident in 2023. I think bands like Alvarado, Gatesville, Robinson, Venus, La Grange, Boerne, and even Benbrook are proof that the power of the bands is shifting. Another way to look at this is the powerful bands that are losing their power: Burnet, Fredericksburg, Springtown, Taylor, and even Godley and Jarrell.

2024 establishes the fourth year of every year State for 4A, and in my opinion first year of its normalcy, and and I think it will get the ball rolling for the next few years and how they will play out. I really do think 2024 has a lot in store for Area D, and I'm super excited to see where it goes.

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fredericksburg came back with a vengeance!