A 10 year review of TX Bands at BoA Grand Nationals Finals

[bchorn]

I did some analysis of the bands appearing in the Grand National finals for the past 10 years to see how often each of the states had bands appearing in the finals. So here's what I discovered.

 

Indiana 38

Texas 29

Illinois 12

Oklahoma 8

Georgia 8

Michigan 7

Ohio 5

Florida 6

Pennsylvania, South Carolina 2

California, Kentucky, Louisiana 1

 

Not surprising Indiana dominated the number of finals appearances with 38 (more about this later). Texas was a strong second with 29 appearances. However, a trend I noticed when looking at the results was that Indiana had the same bands appearing in the finals whereas Texas had a much wider variety of schools. So I then decided to look at the number of schools from each state participating in the finals. Here's where it gets interesting.

 

Texas 9

Indiana 5

Oklahoma 3

Georgia 3

Ohio 3

Illinois 2

Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, California, Kentucky, Louisiana 1

 

Texas had 9 different bands appear in the finals over the decade with 29 finals appearances. In contrast, Indiana had only 5 (with one band only appearing twice). While it is certainly commendable that Indiana has four nationally strong bands, it appeared to me that Indiana was top heavy in terms of band quality. Texas, on the other hand, has a wide variety bands making the finals every year. In fact, most of the Texas bands that made the BoA finals were not even the best Texas had to offer that year. Despite Texas never sending its current state champion to any of the finals this decade, Texas was still able to finish in the top 3 seven times (in 2003 TX had two bands in the top 3). Granted, it's more difficult for 4A schools to travel to Indianapolis so that eliminates half of the state champions from the decade.

 

What makes this decade for Texas even more impressive is that in the previous 10 years (91-2000), Texas only had 6 bands with 9 finals appearances (Spring, Duncanville, Klein, Westfield, Churchill, Leander). So the quality of Texas bands really improved on a national scale at the start of this decade.

 

Also, when talking about the number of finals appearances by the Indiana bands, something has to be said about proximity. All of these bands are essentially in the suburbs of Indianapolis and therefore these bands don't even have to spend the night in a hotel during the 3 day Grand Nationals competition. Can you imagine how many Texas bands would make the finals if BoA held the Grand Nationals in Dallas? Also, how many of the Indianapolis bands would still travel to Dallas every year? I imagine the results would be skewed heavily toward Texas bands if this were ever to happen.

 

Here's a list of the Texas bands that made the Grand National finals this decade with their finals placement included in parenthesis.

 

L.D. Bell 2001 (4), 2003 (5), 2006 (2), 2007 (1), 2008 (2), 2009 (2), 2010 (3)

The Woodlands 2002 (8), 2004 (7), 2006 (4), 2007 (8), 2009 (7)

Stephen F Austin 2002 (5), 2004 (4), 2007 (8), 2010 (9)

Ronald Reagan 2002 (11), 2003 (2), 2005 (2)

Bowie 2006 (12), 2009 (10)

Winston Churchill 2002 (10), 2006 (10)

Richland 2005 (7), 2007 (9)

Westfield 2003 (1)

Cedar Park 2010 (10)

Marcus 2009 (4)

 

Here's the same list by year.

2001 L.D. Bell (4)

2002 Stephen F. Austin (5), The Woodlands (8), Winston Churchill (10), Ronald Reagan (11)

2003 Westfield (1), Ronald Reagan (2), L.D. Bell (5)

2004 Stephen F. Austin (4), The Woodlands (7)

2005 Ronald Reagan (2),L.D. Bell (3), Richland (7)

2006 L.D. Bell (2), The Woodlands (4), Winston Churchill (10), James Bowie (12)

2007 L.D. Bell (1), The Woodlands (4), Stephen F. Austin (8), Richland (9)

2008 L.D. Bell (2)

2009 L.D. Bell (2), Marcus (4), The Woodlands (7), James Bowie (10)

2010 L.D. Bell (3), Stephen F. Austin (9), Cedar Park (10)

Edited November 23, 2010 by bchorn

[mrwood69]

cool story, bro

[alinktothepresent]

Great research -- "I guess band really IS better in Texas!", etc., etc.

[Xenon]

Awesome stuff!

[TxRaider13]

These are some great numbers...Texas owns

[takigan]

  bchorn said:

Texas had 9 different bands appear in the finals over the decade with 29 finals appearances. In contrast, Indiana had only 5 (with one band only appearing twice). While it is certainly commendable that Indiana has four nationally strong bands, it appeared to me that Indiana was top heavy in terms of band quality.

 

I don't think this is a strong enough argument to say that Indiana is top-heavy. Indiana fans could turn this argument back at you in that if Texas only had 1 major metropolitan area like Indiana does(Indy) instead of 5 (DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso) and also had Indiana's total population (1/4 that of Texas), Texas would have less good bands than Indiana. So they'd argue Quality over Quantity rather than "just having 5 good bands and that's it".

 

I will say I agree with your conclusion, just that you need to elaborate further since your argument doesn't provide enough evidence to support your claim on its own.

 

  Quote

What makes this decade for Texas even more impressive is that in the previous 10 years (91-2000), Texas only had 6 bands with 9 finals appearances (Spring, Duncanville, Klein, Westfield, Churchill, Leander). So the quality of Texas bands really improved on a national scale at the start of this decade.

 

Again, not enough evidence to draw this conclusion. You need to gather up the number of total attending bands for this decade and the last. BOA started gaining a really strong foothold in Texas starting in about 2001 or 2002, and as a result a lot more bands started competing in BOA events, including nationals. In the 90s only the strongest bands attended Nationals. Spring and Westfield attended with the intention of winning...if they didn't have a shot at victory than it almost wasn't worth it, since these bands were the LD Bell and Marcus of the 90s. I think this is part of the reason why Duncanville stopped going to Nationals (aside from the directors' disinterest in the system entirely). In this past decade a lot more bands are attending, so obviously we're going to see more finalist appearances. The population of Texas (and therefore the number of schools) has also increased a lot since 1990.

 

I honestly don't believe the grand national champion of today is better than the national champion of 20 years ago. I believe the top 1% of bands have stayed about the same in quality since '90, the top 5% has increased slightly in quality, 6-50% has increased a moderate amount and the lowest 50% has stayed about the same...possibly getting worse.

 

  Quote

Also, when talking about the number of finals appearances by the Indiana bands, something has to be said about proximity. All of these bands are essentially in the suburbs of Indianapolis and therefore these bands don't even have to spend the night in a hotel during the 3 day Grand Nationals competition. Can you imagine how many Texas bands would make the finals if BoA held the Grand Nationals in Dallas? Also, how many of the Indianapolis bands would still travel to Dallas every year? I imagine the results would be skewed heavily toward Texas bands if this were ever to happen.

 

I don't see a Texas dominated finals simply because it's held in Dallas. Keep in mind that even though the Texas bands would swarm Nationals if it was held here, Avon would still likely attend and they would place like they always do. Bell and Marcus would be in finals, so would Broken Arrow. I think Berkner would make Finals and so would SFA. There are only a couple bands in Texas that are even capable of beating a band like Tarpon Springs or Marian Catholic or Harrison, and that wouldn't change just because the event is held in Texas. We would see 5-7 Texas bands make finals instead of the usual 3-4, but there would still be representation in Finals from the rest of the country as well.

[Prof. Chaos]

  takigan said:

I don't see a Texas dominated finals simply because it's held in Dallas. Keep in mind that even though the Texas bands would swarm Nationals if it was held here, Avon would still likely attend and they would place like they always do. Bell and Marcus would be in finals, so would Broken Arrow. I think Berkner would make Finals and so would SFA. There are only a couple bands in Texas that are even capable of beating a band like Tarpon Springs or Marian Catholic or Harrison, and that wouldn't change just because the event is held in Texas. We would see 5-7 Texas bands make finals instead of the usual 3-4, but there would still be representation in Finals from the rest of the country as well.

 

Possibly, but look at what might happen in the music caption. An Indiana band that might place 3-5 in music at GN in Indy could suddenly be looking at 6-9. BOA scores can change based upon the ability of the competitors. You have to have room to slot everyone. Put Avon in 5A state finals and they'd easily place in the bottom half musically.* Not to mention that of the Texas schools in GN finals, 2/3 were not in 5A SMC.

 

Quite frankly, the Texas kids play their horns much, much better. (A lot of this is down to valuing different things among the two states' music educators.)

 

*I've only seen the Avon Semi-Finals show on The Fan Network. Perhaps finals was much better and I just missed it.

[mellopwn1]

  takigan said:

I don't think this is a strong enough argument to say that Indiana is top-heavy. Indiana fans could turn this argument back at you in that if Texas only had 1 major metropolitan area like Indiana does(Indy) instead of 5 (DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso) and also had Indiana's total population (1/4 that of Texas), Texas would have less good bands than Indiana. So they'd argue Quality over Quantity rather than "just having 5 good bands and that's it".

 

I agree that his statement might be a little harsh on Indiana.

 

If you choose any one metropolitan area in Texas, you get several possible GN finalist bands. I listed the following bands divided by metro area in order of their likelihood and level of ease in making finals.

 

Dallas is obviously the strongest: Marcus/LD Bell, Duncanville, Berkner, Hebron, Coppell, etc.

 

Then perhaps Houston: The Woodlands, SFA, Spring, Brazoswood (The latter two are on the Center Grove level, in my opinion)

 

Then Austin:James Bowie, Cedar Park, and maybe some of the strong 4A bands like Dripping Springs. I am not too familiar with 4A, though.

 

Then San Antonio: Ronald Reagan and CTJ. I think that's it for them, though I wish I could still put Churchill on this list.

 

El Paso would have trouble even getting a band into Semi-Finals.

 

So, if you narrow it down and try to think of it that way, then Indiana and Texas are very comparable in their level of talent. You have to give Indiana a bit of a Handicap when you look at their "best" because of the diminutive size of Indiana in comparison to us. down here.

Edited November 24, 2010 by mellopwn1

[takigan]

  Prof. Chaos said:

Possibly, but look at what might happen in the music caption. An Indiana band that might place 3-5 in music at GN in Indy could suddenly be looking at 6-9. BOA scores can change based upon the ability of the competitors. You have to have room to slot everyone. Put Avon in 5A state finals and they'd easily place in the bottom half musically.* Not to mention that of the Texas schools in GN finals, 2/3 were not in 5A SMC.

 

Quite frankly, the Texas kids play their horns much, much better. (A lot of this is down to valuing different things among the two states' music educators.)

 

*I've only seen the Avon Semi-Finals show on The Fan Network. Perhaps finals was much better and I just missed it.

 

I definitely see your point about a wider music caption spread caused by the large pool of Texas bands in the competition, and the non-Texas bands would definitely find themselves with lower Music Performance scores than if the contest were held in Indy because of it, but I don't see them losing more than .5 because of this, which often isn't enough to even move a band by 1 placement. Besides, I think Texas would find themselves outclassed in Visual by a lot of these non-Texas bands at the same time.

 

Avon had the highest score in Music at Nats this year in Finals. I don't think it would have been this way if Marcus had attended, but even Kennesaw pushed Bell into the #3 spot for music in Finals.

 

1. Avon (IN)

2. Marcus

3. Broken Arrow (OK)

4. Bell

5. Tarpon Springs (FL)

6. Carmel (IN)

7. Bowie

8. The Woodlands

9. Kennesaw Mountain (GA)

10. Marian Catholic (IL)

11. Berkner

12. Lawrence Central (IN)

 

(bubble)

 

13. SFA

14. Hebron

15. Ronald Reagan

16. Cedar Park

17. Union (OK)

18. Spring

19. Center Grove (IN)

20. PCEP (MI)

 

That's how Finals likely would have gone this year if Nats had been held in Texas. I think between Avon, Carmel, LC and Marian, at least one of those bands might not have attended, and if they didn't it would make room for a sea of Texas bands just outside the Finals bubble to break in. Union would still have shown up, but Center Grove might not have....same with PCEP

[bchorn]

  takigan said:

I don't think this is a strong enough argument to say that Indiana is top-heavy. Indiana fans could turn this argument back at you in that if Texas only had 1 major metropolitan area like Indiana does(Indy) instead of 5 (DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso) and also had Indiana's total population (1/4 that of Texas), Texas would have less good bands than Indiana. So they'd argue Quality over Quantity rather than "just having 5 good bands and that's it".

 

I will say I agree with your conclusion, just that you need to elaborate further since your argument doesn't provide enough evidence to support your claim on its own.

You raise an excellent point here. I was looking at the sheer number of quality bands in Texas and not taking the total population base in consideration. I would have to agree that proportionally Texas and Indiana have an equal amount of quality bands.

 

  takigan said:

Again, not enough evidence to draw this conclusion. You need to gather up the number of total attending bands for this decade and the last. BOA started gaining a really strong foothold in Texas starting in about 2001 or 2002, and as a result a lot more bands started competing in BOA events, including nationals. In the 90s only the strongest bands attended Nationals. Spring and Westfield attended with the intention of winning...if they didn't have a shot at victory than it almost wasn't worth it, since these bands were the LD Bell and Marcus of the 90s. I think this is part of the reason why Duncanville stopped going to Nationals (aside from the directors' disinterest in the system entirely). In this past decade a lot more bands are attending, so obviously we're going to see more finalist appearances. The population of Texas (and therefore the number of schools) has also increased a lot since 1990.

 

I honestly don't believe the grand national champion of today is better than the national champion of 20 years ago. I believe the top 1% of bands have stayed about the same in quality since '90, the top 5% has increased slightly in quality, 6-50% has increased a moderate amount and the lowest 50% has stayed about the same...possibly getting worse.

Another fair point raised since I wasn't following BoA back in the 90's. If I had a lot more free time on my hands, I would have downloaded all the prelim standings and done a more complete competitive analysis that way. As such, I chose to stick with the finals.

 

  takigan said:

I don't see a Texas dominated finals simply because it's held in Dallas. Keep in mind that even though the Texas bands would swarm Nationals if it was held here, Avon would still likely attend and they would place like they always do. Bell and Marcus would be in finals, so would Broken Arrow. I think Berkner would make Finals and so would SFA. There are only a couple bands in Texas that are even capable of beating a band like Tarpon Springs or Marian Catholic or Harrison, and that wouldn't change just because the event is held in Texas. We would see 5-7 Texas bands make finals instead of the usual 3-4, but there would still be representation in Finals from the rest of the country as well.

 

At this point, I think we are just talking semantics. To me, 5-7 Texas bands in a Grand Nationals finals is a Texas dominated finals. If I made it sound like I thought the finals would be all Texas bands then that was not my intention. I'm sure the bands that travel far distances today like Tarpon Springs and Broken Arrow would still travel to Texas and I'm sure they would still place. I just think there would be greater representation towards Texas bands given the home field advantage of proximity.

[takigan]

  bchorn said:

You raise an excellent point here. I was looking at the sheer number of quality bands in Texas and not taking the total population base in consideration. I would have to agree that proportionally Texas and Indiana have an equal amount of quality bands.

 

I disagree, haha . I was saying the Indiana people could make that argument....I don't agree that the 2 states are proportionally equal when it comes to good bands against population.

[mrwood69]

Anyone notice CP's placement from BOA SA to BOA GN changed by only one place? Just saying.

[mellopwn1]

  mrwood69 said:

Anyone notice CP's placement from BOA SA to BOA GN changed by only one place? Just saying.

 

How is that relevant to anything...?

[Prof. Chaos]

  mellopwn1 said:

How is that relevant to anything...?

 

I think his conjecture is that, all things being equal, the top bands at BOA SA are as good as those at GN.

 

It requires some assumptions:

-Everyone improved to the same degree as Cedar Park in the 2 weeks between shows, etc.

-Judging panels see things the same way.

 

The wrench gets thrown into the argument when you consider that most BOA SA participants' shows were designed to peak that weekend (and in the next 3 days at 5A State). CP was designed to peak 2 weeks later.

[mrwood69]

  Prof. Chaos said:

I think his conjecture is that, all things being equal, the top bands at BOA SA are as good as those at GN.

 

It requires some assumptions:

-Everyone improved to the same degree as Cedar Park in the 2 weeks between shows, etc.

-Judging panels see things the same way.

 

The wrench gets thrown into the argument when you consider that most BOA SA participants' shows were designed to peak that weekend (and in the next 3 days at 5A State). CP was designed to peak 2 weeks later.

 

 

Exactly. Granted, I'm sure Avon, Broken Arrow, and other top non TX bands at GN this year still would've made finals, I think it's very safe to assume that had all the finalists who placed better than Cedar Park at BOA SA went to GN, about half would've made finals, and the other half would've been right outside.

 

However I don't quite understand how you can actually tell what shows were designed to peak when. I think what you're saying is that when their show was conceived, the design team knew CP was going to GN and tried to make a show designed to "peak" at that point? I don't quite understand how someone does that. Peaking is simply a point when a band as a whole ceases to execute their show at any higher of a level than they physically/mentally can on a consistent basis. I'm sure all Cedar Park did after BOA SA was clean, not add new elements. I mean, we've all seen their show, there's really nothing you can do to it other than add some visual moments and clean, whereas if you're Marcus or Churchill just add prop material, etc.

[november rain]

  mrwood69 said:

Anyone notice CP's placement from BOA SA to BOA GN changed by only one place? Just saying.

 

Placing is not revelant as score is. Take the SA score, and add 3-4 points or so (bands do improve by that amount in two weeks) and that's your score there.