UIL Area predictions

[Drum major]

  drum_mom said:

My list didn't copy/paste well. Let's try that again . . .

 

Region 8 bands:

A&M Consolidated

Belton

Bryan

Copperas Cove

Ellison High

Harker Heights

Killeen

Midway

Shoemaker

Temple

 

Region 12 bands:

C.T. Johnson

Canyon

East Central

Judson

Lee

MacArthur

Madison

New Braunfels

Ronald Reagan

Roosevelt

Smithson Valley

Steele

Wagner

Winston Churchill

 

Region 18 bands:

Akins

Anderson

Austin

Bowie

Del Valle

Hendrickson

Pflugerville

San Marcos

Westlake

 

Region 26 bands:

Cedar Ridge

Lake Travis

McNeil

Round Rock

Stony Point High

Westwood

 

Ok.... I'll bite. Thinking they are taking six.....barring from anything tragic happening...

 

LOCKS:

Round Rock

Bowie

C.T. Johnson

Cedar Ridge

Ronald Reagan

 

ON THE FENCE:

Westlake, Hendrickson and Anderson

 

Next?

[T.Stechnij]

  Drum major said:

Ok.... I'll bite. Thinking they are taking six.....barring from anything tragic happening...

 

LOCKS:

Round Rock

Bowie

C.T. Johnson

Cedar Ridge

Ronald Reagan

 

ON THE FENCE:

Westlake, Hendrickson and Anderson

 

Next?

Honestly, I think it could be seven hopefully:1. Bowie 2. Claudia Taylor 3. Reagan 4. Cedar Ridge/ Round Rock 5. Cedar Ridge/ Round Rock 6. Westlake 7. Anderson 8. Pflugerville 9. Hendrickson 10. Lake Travis/ Churchill

Edited October 19, 2012 by T.Stechnij

[Statebound]

  anthony v said:

Maybe I'm outta the loop, but I don't think Keller is in area B. I have a feeling they're taking 5 bands this year, though.

Good catch--the Keller schools are all in Area A. That gives some other deserving programs a chance.

[Drummantx]

  T.Stechnij said:

Honestly, I think it could be seven hopefully:1. Bowie 2. Claudia Taylor 3. Reagan 4. Cedar Ridge/ Round Rock 5. Cedar Ridge/ Round Rock 6. Westlake 7. Anderson 8. Pflugerville 9. Hendrickson 10. Westwood

 

Wow, getting into finals is even a feat, that's a deep set of bands.

[longhornsax]

Ah yes, classic Area D. It seems every time a few bands drop down to 4A, only to be replaced by even better upcoming schools.

 

I honestly don't think there are many locks in this contest, especially considering the lack of head to head results between the schools. So i'm just gonna do in order of my confidence of advancing

 

Bowie

CTJ

Round Rock

Reagan

Westlake (when was the last time they missed state??)

Cedar Ridge

Anderson

Churchill (how can everyone forget Churchill?)

Hendrickson

Lake Travis (not as hot as last year, but still a strong program)

Pflugerville

 

What a mess...yeah, that was 11 bands...so what?

 

[OCPantherSnare]

Looks like Area D is going to be just as stacked as usual! But like someone has already said, I'm pretty sure they'll take 7 bands, not 6, out of Area D because there were 34 bands at the area competition in 2010, and there's a few schools that have moved up to 5A and will advance to area without a doubt (Lake Travis, Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge).

 

As for my Area D picks:

 

Locks for State:

Bowie

Johnson

Round Rock

Reagan

(all of which will either make state finals or get very close to the top ten at state, IMO)

 

Likely to go to State:

Cedar Ridge

Churchill

Anderson

Westlake

 

Darkhorses for State, likely to make Area Finals:

Hendrickson

Pflugerville

Lake Travis

McNeil

 

So that's my breakdown for Area D. For my own area, Area G, I think it's the usual suspects. Likely state advancers are Harlingen, Hanna, Donna, Lopez, and O'Connor. There will be a ton of bands fighting for the last two spots though, and I really can't predict who is mostly likely to make it.

Edited October 19, 2012 by OCPantherSnare

[mellopwn1]

Can someone answer a burning question?

 

Say I am director of Band X in Area Z. My area takes 5 bands. I think my band may be in that group of 5 advancers, however it would be the first time and it is far from definite. How do I plan for an overnight trip to San Antonio when I'm not sure if my band is going to make it? What happens when a band that would never dream of making state somehow advances? Has this ever happened?

 

For bands unsure whether they will advance or not, I feel like UIL state must be a logistical nightmare.

[Xenon]

  mellopwn1 said:

Can someone answer a burning question?

 

Say I am director of Band X in Area Z. My area takes 5 bands. I think my band may be in that group of 5 advancers, however it would be the first time and it is far from definite. How do I plan for an overnight trip to San Antonio when I'm not sure if my band is going to make it? What happens when a band that would never dream of making state somehow advances? Has this ever happened?

 

For bands unsure whether they will advance or not, I feel like UIL state must be a logistical nightmare.

And it's even worse in the case of a band like Galena Park North Shore which was an Alternate to State and only found out at the last minute that they would be advancing due to one of the advancing bands being DQ'd.

[Statebound]

  mellopwn1 said:

Can someone answer a burning question?

 

Say I am director of Band X in Area Z. My area takes 5 bands. I think my band may be in that group of 5 advancers, however it would be the first time and it is far from definite. How do I plan for an overnight trip to San Antonio when I'm not sure if my band is going to make it? What happens when a band that would never dream of making state somehow advances? Has this ever happened?

 

For bands unsure whether they will advance or not, I feel like UIL state must be a logistical nightmare.

I've been involved in the coordinating of all this at one time or another so here's my version of it. Nearly all of the bands that have a realistic chance at making state are are already playing at BOASA. Yes--there will be a couple exceptions. In state years, you book your hotel of choice for 2 "hard" nights and give the hotel a deposit for the other 2-3 nights in case your program is fortunate enough to make state. The worst you can do is lose your deposit. The state contest is always on Tuesday night, so even if you don't already have hotel rooms you would still be able to reserve something within 30 minutes of downtown with 10 days notice.

 

As crazy as it sounds, you can pull the rest of it together fairly quickly once you know how long you're going to be there. One good thing about having all these contests in San Antone is that it is a tourist city that is ready made for large crowds. Every restaurant has large dining areas and party rooms and many are within walking distance of the Alamodome. Jason's Deli doesn't even blink when you call them with 200+ box lunches. As long as you have a rough outline and a weeks notice, you can just roll with it.

[mellopwn1]

  Statebound said:

I've been involved in the coordinating of all this at one time or another so here's my version of it. Nearly all of the bands that have a realistic chance at making state are are already playing at BOASA. Yes--there will be a couple exceptions. In state years, you book your hotel of choice for 2 "hard" nights and give the hotel a deposit for the other 2-3 nights in case your program is fortunate enough to make state. The worst you can do is lose your deposit. The state contest is always on Tuesday night, so even if you don't already have hotel rooms you would still be able to reserve something within 30 minutes of downtown with 10 days notice.

 

As crazy as it sounds, you can pull the rest of it together fairly quickly once you know how long you're going to be there. One good thing about having all these contests in San Antone is that it is a tourist city that is ready made for large crowds. Every restaurant has large dining areas and party rooms and many are within walking distance of the Alamodome. Jason's Deli doesn't even blink when you call them with 200+ box lunches. As long as you have a rough outline and a weeks notice, you can just roll with it.

 

 

Geez, I don't care how easy you make it sound. I still would't want to be the booster in charge of all that! haha. Thanks for enlightening us.

[Statebound]

  Xenon said:

And it's even worse in the case of a band like Galena Park North Shore which was an Alternate to State and only found out at the last minute that they would be advancing due to one of the advancing bands being DQ'd.

I've not heard that one. I'd love to hear their story.

[longhornsax]

  Statebound said:

I've not heard that one. I'd love to hear their story.

 

In 2008 The Woodlands was disqualified after area for what I think was an ineligible marcher? However, the decision in actually disqualifying them took a few days, meaning North Shore (the alternate) had an unbelievably short amount of time to plan that trip. It's exciting, but I can't imagine how stressful that must have been...

[Nosagi]

  longhornsax said:

In 2008 The Woodlands was disqualified after area for what I think was an ineligible marcher? However, the decision in actually disqualifying them took a few days, meaning North Shore (the alternate) had an unbelievably short amount of time to plan that trip. It's exciting, but I can't imagine how stressful that must have been...

It was because of an ineligible marcher. Funny thing is....[Not really that funny--Takigan][i guess it is hard to convey sarcasm over written text - Nosagi].... It was a nightmare for both TW and NS. But if I'm not mistaken, the directors at TW started some harsh list checking every year henceforth, if you were anywhere remotely close to failing you got a stern talking to.

Edited October 24, 2012 by Nosagi

[TXMarchingMadness87654]

  Statebound said:

I've been involved in the coordinating of all this at one time or another so here's my version of it. Nearly all of the bands that have a realistic chance at making state are are already playing at BOASA. Yes--there will be a couple exceptions. In state years, you book your hotel of choice for 2 "hard" nights and give the hotel a deposit for the other 2-3 nights in case your program is fortunate enough to make state. The worst you can do is lose your deposit. The state contest is always on Tuesday night, so even if you don't already have hotel rooms you would still be able to reserve something within 30 minutes of downtown with 10 days notice.

 

As crazy as it sounds, you can pull the rest of it together fairly quickly once you know how long you're going to be there. One good thing about having all these contests in San Antone is that it is a tourist city that is ready made for large crowds. Every restaurant has large dining areas and party rooms and many are within walking distance of the Alamodome. Jason's Deli doesn't even blink when you call them with 200+ box lunches. As long as you have a rough outline and a weeks notice, you can just roll with it.

 

I also have been involved in the process. We go to SA for BOA and come home. The kids go to school on Monday and we leave Monday after school to go back to SA for State. We stay in different hotels that are already reserved for said dates. Yes, they have to come back. They cannot afford to stay Sat & Sun night and miss school on Monday, too. They are regulated pretty heavily. They leave very late on Tues night and still have to go to school on Wednesday. We are all completely exhausted, but it's exciting. I can imagine that the band directors have a pretty good gauge on the chances their band will make it to State. While I'm sure that things come "out of the blue" from time to time, most, at the very least, have it in the back of their minds that they could go...especially if they are alternates.

 

On a side note: One of these days, Haltom will be considered a lock for State, too. I guess making it every year since 2000 still hasn't garnered them that "priviledge" from most people. It's all good, though. I DO like underdogs, even underdogs who make it to State six times in a row.

Edited October 19, 2012 by TXMarchingMadness87654

[Chupacabra1222]

Area D in my opinion is maybe the toughest most competitive Area in the State..... The Area with Marcus, Bell, Richland etc. could also claim the same thing.... That said here's how I see Area D

 

Finalists:

 

CTJ

Bowie

Round Rock

Reagan

Cedar Ridge

Westlake

Anderson

Hendrickson

Churchill

Lake Travis

 

State Qualifiers:

 

1) Bowie

2) CTJ

3) Round Rock

4) Reagan

5) Westlake

6) Hendrickson

7) Anderson

 

Alt.... Churchill

 

 

  OCPantherSnare said:

Looks like Area D is going to be just as stacked as usual! But like someone has already said, I'm pretty sure they'll take 7 bands, not 6, out of Area D because there were 34 bands at the area competition in 2010, and there's a few schools that have moved up to 5A and will advance to area without a doubt (Lake Travis, Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge).

 

As for my Area D picks:

 

Locks for State:

Bowie

Johnson

Round Rock

Reagan

(all of which will either make state finals or get very close to the top ten at state, IMO)

 

Likely to go to State:

Cedar Ridge

Churchill

Anderson

Westlake

 

Darkhorses for State, likely to make Area Finals:

Hendrickson

Pflugerville

Lake Travis

McNeil

 

So that's my breakdown for Area D. For my own area, Area G, I think it's the usual suspects. Likely state advancers are Harlingen, Hanna, Donna, Lopez, and O'Connor. There will be a ton of bands fighting for the last two spots though, and I really can't predict who is mostly likely to make it.

[terpsichore]

  whitewing09 said:

Probably the same usual bands.

 

Rio Hondo

Port Isabel

Crystal City

Fredericksburg

Hidalgo (I think they just had an off year last time around, but I could be wrong)

 

down here in south texas, la grulla hs has been turning some heads.

port isabel has been doing very well, also coming out on top.

rio hondo has not been doing as well as they have in years past. not sure why this is happening...

hidalgo has not been up to their reputation...

haven't heard anything about kingsville... but they should be roaring up a storm come Area time.

[inventions99]

  terpsichore said:

down here in south texas, la grulla hs has been turning some heads.

port isabel has been doing very well, also coming out on top.

rio hondo has not been doing as well as they have in years past. not sure why this is happening...

hidalgo has not been up to their reputation...

haven't heard anything about kingsville... but they should be roaring up a storm come Area time.

 

Grulla could be a surprise Area E finalist and even state qualifier. They came out on top of Hidalgo last weekend at City of Palms. Earlier in the season they came in 4th out of 21 bands overall at the PSJA contest, on top of all but two 5A bands (Harlingen and San Benito) and a 4A (Rio Grande City). I think their chances will really depend on how many Area E will be sending to state, though.

[Donezo]

  planolandl said:

For Area C,

 

I see Duncanville, Coppell, Berkner, and N. Mesquite as the top 4. I've seen Rowlett and Sachse and feel they will not be ahead of N. Mesquite.

 

As for other finalists, I predict this as the order:

 

1 Duncanville

2 Coppell

3 Berkner

4 N Mesquite

5 Rowlett

6 Lake Highlands

7 Midlothian

8 Naaman Forest

9 Mesquite

10 Sachse

 

I can see this happening, though I second the earlier mention of Garland as a likely area finalist. I just watched the North Mesquite region performance video. It's a great show, and they look very good. Musically, it's still pretty dirty. I'm still on the fence about their chances, but I really hope they pull it off. This is by far the best they've ever been.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Donezo

[jbob43]

  Chupacabra1222 said:

Area G in 5A is gonna be a tight race this year.....

 

Finalist Guesses:

 

Harlingen

O'Connor

Donna

Hanna

Lopez

San Benito

Laredo United

Harlingen South

Pace

Brandeis

 

State Guesses:

 

Harlingen

O'Connor

Donna

Lopez

Hanna

San Benito

Laredo United

 

What do you think about Laredo United's chances at Area/Finals this year?

[AtxBrass123]

  OCPantherSnare said:

Looks like Area D is going to be just as stacked as usual! But like someone has already said, I'm pretty sure they'll take 7 bands, not 6, out of Area D because there were 34 bands at the area competition in 2010, and there's a few schools that have moved up to 5A and will advance to area without a doubt (Lake Travis, Hendrickson, Cedar Ridge).

 

As for my Area D picks:

 

Locks for State:

Bowie

Johnson

Round Rock

Reagan

(all of which will either make state finals or get very close to the top ten at state, IMO)

 

Likely to go to State:

Cedar Ridge

Churchill

Anderson

Westlake

 

Darkhorses for State, likely to make Area Finals:

Hendrickson

Pflugerville

Lake Travis

McNeil

 

So that's my breakdown for Area D. For my own area, Area G, I think it's the usual suspects. Likely state advancers are Harlingen, Hanna, Donna, Lopez, and O'Connor. There will be a ton of bands fighting for the last two spots though, and I really can't predict who is mostly likely to make it.

 

I was at UIL Region 26 Tonight and i don't feel like Lake Travis is as good as they used to be. I really enjoyed Westwood, Cedar Ridge, and McNeil. All 3 were very strong bands and could easily be in finals. Area D is super tough

Edited October 21, 2012 by AtxBrass123

[inventions99]

Area G already has 37 bands qualifying for the contest, and that's not even counting the region 14 bands yet! So Area G is taking at least 7, and more likely 8 bands to state! There's almost no need to even hold finals!

[Bandmanio]

  inventions99 said:

Grulla could be a surprise Area E finalist and even state qualifier. They came out on top of Hidalgo last weekend at City of Palms. Earlier in the season they came in 4th out of 21 bands overall at the PSJA contest, on top of all but two 5A bands (Harlingen and San Benito) and a 4A (Rio Grande City). I think their chances will really depend on how many Area E will be sending to state, though.

 

27 bands will be at Area E 3A.

 

Bands in performance order:

 

Hondo

Columbia

La Feria

Port Isabel

Robstown

Boerne

Fredericksburg

Rio Hondo

Pleasanton

Hidalgo

Somerset

Sweeny

Crystal City

Orange Grove

Canyon Lake

HM King

El Campo

Rockport-Fulton

Stafford

LaVernia

Ingleside

Needville

Sinton

Carrizo Springs

Pearsall

Zapata

Grulla

 

Should be some great bands at this contest!

[T.Stechnij]

Lake Travis sounds amazing, if they do not make state I would be shocked.

They have great soloist and their winds sound better than they did last year. I have no idea what everyone is talking about and why people are leaving them out. A decent recent video

It is so hard to predict for Area D now- honestly, with one more region to go it will either be 34, 35 or 36. In my opinion I think that the only bands that will certainly go are Bowie, CTJ and Lake Travis. It is going to be a blood bath.

Edited October 21, 2012 by T.Stechnij

[longhornsax]

  T.Stechnij said:

Lake Travis sounds amazing, if they do not make state I would be shocked.

They have great soloist and their winds sound better than they did last year. I have no idea what everyone is talking about and why people are leaving them out. A decent recent video

It is so hard to predict for Area D now- honestly, with one more region to go it will either be 34, 35 or 36. In my opinion I think that the only bands that will certainly go are Bowie, CTJ and Lake Travis. It is going to be a blood bath.

 

I don't think anyone is counting out Lake Travis, but the fact that they were 5th among bands that they are competing with at area at that contest, with really just a handful of those potential finalists at the contest, there is reason for doubt. Of course it's just one contest with a very different rubric for judging, but it's very hard to consider them a lock by any means. I do love the show though!

[OCPantherSnare]

  inventions99 said:

Area G already has 37 bands qualifying for the contest, and that's not even counting the region 14 bands yet! So Area G is taking at least 7, and more likely 8 bands to state! There's almost no need to even hold finals!

 

Haha, well there has to be a finals to somehow cut down the mass swaths of bands into a more reasonable number. Although, with Area G still growing and so many bands advancing on to the area competition, they should think about taking more bands from prelims to finals. Plus, I can't imagine how disappointing it be to be one of the two or three bands that makes it into finals but doesn't advance to state...

 

Before the marching season even started, there was talk of splitting up the area into two "zones" that would each hold separate area contests and send three or four bands to state each. From my understanding, the politics of it all is what made the idea fizzle out.