UIL Area predictions

[principalagent]

I'm also not too sure why Anderson is being underestimated here as well. I would think that their performances this weekend would solidify them as a near-lock to State and a contender for finals even. Although Area D is slightly more stacked than it was in 2010, I don't see them missing out at all. At this point, I see Anderson and Westlake advancing out of Area D over the additions from 4A, with Cedar Ridge having the best chance of breaking through or grabbing the seventh spot.

[Drum major]

  mellopwn1 said:

Personally, I can't see Lake Travis placing ahead of Round Rock. But then again Cedar Park got 9th or 10th in Area D Prelims last year...so you never know at these things.

 

1. Bowie

2. CTJ

3. Round Rock

4. Reagan

5. Cedar Ridge

6. Lake Travis

7. Anderson

8. Westlake

9. Churchill

10. Hendrickson

 

 

I would be way more sure of these if this was a BOA contest, but its hard to tell what shows will do well in UIL until after these area contests!

 

Anyone who is watching and understanding what is being judged would agree with you that Lake Travis probably won't be in the top 5 contenders ( if everyone marches a clean show.)... Don't get me wrong, I really liked Lake Travis' show... but to over take some of the bigger bands and what they are bringing... don't see that happening . With that being said, Anderson just did well at BOA St. Louis, s they will be bringing some confidence to the field.

Keep in mind, that most directors realize that they are dealing with having to please both UIL and BOA judges and have put those aspect in their shows.

There are variences that can also affect marching also...

There is a 30% chance Rain on Saturday.

Any band playing before 9:00 is going to be wiped.

These kids are having to get up as early as 4:30 am to get a practice run in - Most have football games the night before. I'm feeling for them.

Let's hope everyone brings their A game.

[FoobYen]

  mellopwn1 said:

Personally, I can't see Lake Travis placing ahead of Round Rock. But then again Cedar Park got 9th or 10th in Area D Prelims last year...so you never know at these things.

 

1. Bowie

2. CTJ

3. Round Rock

4. Reagan

5. Cedar Ridge

6. Lake Travis

7. Anderson

8. Westlake

9. Churchill

10. Hendrickson

 

I would be way more sure of these if this was a BOA contest, but its hard to tell what shows will do well in UIL until after these area contests!

 

2011 Area D Prelims

 

1- Dripping Springs

2- Hendrickson

3- Vista Ridge

4- Connally

5- Lake Travis

6- Vandegrift

7- CEDAR PARK

8- Hays

9- Cedar Ridge

10- Canyon

 

2011 Area D Finals Placement

1- Dripping Springs

2- Lake Travis

3- Cedar Park

4- Vandegrift

5- Hendrickson

6- Connally

 

Cedar Park jumped pretty far but not from 9th or 10th! Area D was an intense competition last year with 4 bands from the same district battling it out and qualifying for state. (All four bands from district 25-4A went on to make finals at state.)

[drum_mom]

  hoguetw said:

CTJ dropped to 4a this year. they annouced 4A at Uil Region 12. I also see Judson jumping up in finals next to Lake Travis. they managed to steal a spot infront of Lake Travis at Westlake in Pre-lims and Finals.

 

 

They're still 5A. The announcer mis-spoke.

[kammcam]

Schedule is up for Area G. With 42 bands advancing its going to be along day for all especially the finalist.

 

http://www.uilforms.com/regions/14/AreaMar...-Oct27-2012.pdf

[Donezo]

Rumor has it that there will be two panels of judges each for Areas D and G due to the very high number of participants. Expect to see some big shifts from prelims to finals in those areas!

[T.Stechnij]

  Donezo said:

Rumor has it that there will be two panels of judges each for Areas D and G due to the very high number of participants. Expect to see some big shifts from prelims to finals in those areas!

I heard the same thing. They should really consider including more bands in finals for these areas.

[Donezo]

Logistically, that would be a bit of a nightmare. Both areas are starting finals pretty late as it is. I don't know that I trust anyone over the age of 50's judgment past 11 pm!

 

I also think that in this situation where the primary goal is to find the right bands to send to State, putting 12-14 bands in finals runs the risk of muddying the waters too much. The Area level is where most judging drama tends to happen, and I'm all in favor of presenting a more limited set of options for the judges to choose from rather than giving more of a chance for complicated ties and inconsistent placements. I'm sure prelims results from both areas will be a mess as it is.

[Brenden]

Area D is going to be a heartbreaking night for alot of people, its a shame they can only take 6-7.

 

Either way, my top 7 choices (without guessing the order past 2nd place because that would be a nightmare)

 

1. Bowie

2. CTJ

 

3-6

 

Reagan (With such a contrast between Denton and Conroe results its tough to place them, especially in a UIL setting, but after seeing them in Conroe I would be willing to bet my left arm they end up top 6 and probably close to state finals in San Antonio.)

 

Round Rock (Havent seen them this year, but theyve been getting better and better the last couple years so ill assume that hasnt changed, especially considering their latest win over Dripping Springs who sounded pretty great at Conroe.)

 

Churchill (Everyone seems to have either counted out or forgotten Churchill, but they barely missed state in 2010 and they are much stronger now after starting to rebuild than they were at the time. The shows a little more BOA-oriented so i expect them to make a bigger splash at San Antonio but theyll still be competitive at Area.)

 

Cedar Ridge (Saw them in Conroe, fun show performed well with a great Coldplay segment featuring the only singer Ive ever enjoyed in a marching show. I expect a good showing at Area.

 

Westlake (A solid program, havent seen them this year but i doubt theyll miss it with their UIL track record.)

 

Bubble Bands

 

 

Anderson

Hendrickson

Lake Travis

[Danpod]

  Donezo said:

Rumor has it that there will be two panels of judges each for Areas D and G due to the very high number of participants. Expect to see some big shifts from prelims to finals in those areas!

 

Rumor confirmed, via the Region 18 website.

The judges for the 5A Area D Marching Band Contest are:

Richard Armstrong - Waxahachie

Keith Bearden – TTU (Retired)

Scott Coulson – Poteet HS (Mesquite)(Retired)

Gerry Miller – Wakeland HS (Frisco)

Fred Velez – Lone Star College

(A second panel of judges is currently being hired – Assignments TBD)

 

We can only assume that the second judging panel will take care of Finals.

 

Separate Finals judging panel + UIL System = Potential chaos when State Qualifiers are announced.

[T.Stechnij]

  Danpod said:

Rumor confirmed, via the Region 18 website.

The judges for the 5A Area D Marching Band Contest are:

Richard Armstrong - Waxahachie

Keith Bearden

[mellopwn1]

  kammcam said:

Schedule is up for Area G. With 42 bands advancing its going to be along day for all especially the finalist.

 

http://www.uilforms.com/regions/14/AreaMar...-Oct27-2012.pdf

 

The Area G competition won't be over until Sunday. Insane!

[Donezo]

  T.Stechnij said:

This is a really good panel!

 

It is, but I'm worried about the "B" panel, because most qualified judges are either

 

a.) already scheduled to judge an area on Saturday

b.) directing a competing band somewhere in Texas

c.) tied up in scheduling conflicts that prevented them from taking area judging invitations already

 

This could get messy.

[ocbass120]

  mellopwn1 said:

The Area G competition won't be over until Sunday. Insane!

 

Well, the scores probably won't be announced until the "next day"...12 AM+. Going to be a long day, for sure!

[OCPantherSnare]

  Danpod said:

Rumor confirmed, via the Region 18 website.

The judges for the 5A Area D Marching Band Contest are:

Richard Armstrong - Waxahachie

Keith Bearden

[Danpod]

  OCPantherSnare said:

Wow. Has that ever happened before, having two separate judging panels at an area competition for prelims and finals?

 

Not to my knowledge. That sort of thing is common for State Prelims/Finals. Two judging panels means that Finals will be littered with maxed-out performances.

[OCPantherSnare]

  Danpod said:

Not to my knowledge. That sort of thing is common for State Prelims/Finals. Two judging panels means that Finals will be littered with maxed-out performances.

 

Well that is very interesting and pretty unprecedented. I wonder if Area G will have two judging panels as well...I understand that the overall caliber of Area G bands is lower than Area D bands, theoretically making it easier to pick out the finalist bands, but there are a record 42 bands competing at Area G. Although I'm sure UIL would be hard pressed to find a solid group of judges, for reasons that have already been listed by another person. I just see this becoming an "us too" kind of thing.

[Drum major]

  Brenden said:

Area D is going to be a heartbreaking night for alot of people, its a shame they can only take 6-7.

 

Either way, my top 7 choices (without guessing the order past 2nd place because that would be a nightmare)

 

1. Bowie

2. CTJ

 

3-6

 

Reagan (With such a contrast between Denton and Conroe results its tough to place them, especially in a UIL setting, but after seeing them in Conroe I would be willing to bet my left arm they end up top 6 and probably close to state finals in San Antonio.)

 

Round Rock (Havent seen them this year, but theyve been getting better and better the last couple years so ill assume that hasnt changed, especially considering their latest win over Dripping Springs who sounded pretty great at Conroe.)

 

Churchill (Everyone seems to have either counted out or forgotten Churchill, but they barely missed state in 2010 and they are much stronger now after starting to rebuild than they were at the time. The shows a little more BOA-oriented so i expect them to make a bigger splash at San Antonio but theyll still be competitive at Area.)

 

Cedar Ridge (Saw them in Conroe, fun show performed well with a great Coldplay segment featuring the only singer Ive ever enjoyed in a marching show. I expect a good showing at Area.

 

Westlake (A solid program, havent seen them this year but i doubt theyll miss it with their UIL track record.)

 

Bubble Bands

 

 

Anderson

Hendrickson

Lake Travis

 

 

 

Just curious... Why does most assume that Bowie will place first? Bowie has been laying low and other than the one contest (that i know of) does anyone have an idea of where they are at in their show. Is it fair to say that they being predicted to be 1st because of their history or is their show just that good? Case in point... Cedar Park has been a power house but this year they seem to be vulnerable and seems to be missing from the 1 and 2 spot consistently. Again ... Just wondering

[Danpod]

  Drum major said:

Just curious... Why does most assume that Bowie will place first? Bowie has been laying low and other than the one contest (that i know of) does anyone have an idea of where they are at in their show. Is it fair to say that they being predicted to be 1st because of their history or is their show just that good? Case in point... Cedar Park has been a power house but this year they seem to be vulnerable and seems to be missing from the 1 and 2 spot consistently. Again ... Just wondering

 

Cedar Park is a 4A school. This is a 5A State Marching Contest year.

[Drum major]

  Danpod said:

Cedar Park is a 4A school. This is a 5A State Marching Contest year.

 

I'm well aware of that fact... It wasn't the point of the question

[Xenon]

  Danpod said:

We can only assume that the second judging panel will take care of Finals.

I bet that the primary panel listed will take Finals while the newly hired panel will handle Prelims.

[mellopwn1]

  Drum major said:

Just curious... Why does most assume that Bowie will place first? Bowie has been laying low and other than the one contest (that i know of) does anyone have an idea of where they are at in their show. Is it fair to say that they being predicted to be 1st because of their history or is their show just that good? Case in point... Cedar Park has been a power house but this year they seem to be vulnerable and seems to be missing from the 1 and 2 spot consistently. Again ... Just wondering

 

Bowie's reputation is certainly a factor, but Denton also proved that their show is more than capable of rolling with the big boys. We can all probably agree that CTJ and Bowie are the two top dogs in Area D right now, and I think a lot of people are siding with Bowie for first place because of their proven track record in UIL events.

 

It's a question of who is executing better, and Bowie is the safer bet.

[Brenden]

  Drum major said:

Just curious... Why does most assume that Bowie will place first? Bowie has been laying low and other than the one contest (that i know of) does anyone have an idea of where they are at in their show. Is it fair to say that they being predicted to be 1st because of their history or is their show just that good? Case in point... Cedar Park has been a power house but this year they seem to be vulnerable and seems to be missing from the 1 and 2 spot consistently. Again ... Just wondering

 

 

I have not yet seen Bowies show this year but based on their last few years its a safe bet that they should still be considered the favorite to take Area D, though it is close. I think i saw someone call Johnson a BOA monster but honestly what first sparked my interest in them was 2010 when they were still a somewhat obscure band, but their success in UIL and showing at state kind of got their name out there. I expect Johnson to perform extremely well under UIL scoring once again but i just dont think theyre ready to topple a giant like Bowie yet. Give them a year or two and thatll be a whole different story no doubt.

 

 

Regarding CP, dont get me wrong because they are one of my all time favorite bands, but i dont consider them a powerhouse. They have the talent, and possibly the best sound of any group, but i find their visual packages and sometimes show designs to be a little dull which has kept them out of the top 5 as of late, finishing 6th at San Antonio last year, and 9th the year before, with a 10th place Grand Nats finish. Not to mention their scoring seems to be a little erratic, placing 9th in Area prelims last year and then 3rd in finals, and as yall know taking 1st at State. So i dont think its exactly a new trend that they seem underrated most years since On Edge in 08. But as Danpod mentioned, they are 4A which is why they participated in the 4A State Marching Contest last year.

[Drummantx]

Regardless of where Cedar Ridge places, I just watched a video, and WOW. That's a powerful show, one of my favorites of the season for sure!

[longhornsax]

Bowie had arguably one of its best seasons in its long history last year...in my opinion they had a show that would have been top 3 at UIL state last year, if not the winning show. I think they're at the top of their game right now, and while history isn't everything, it's about all we got to go off of for these predictions (that mean pretty much nothing in the end). I think both Bowie and CTJ will be in the hunt for top 5 at state this year though.

 

And Cedar Park, not a powerhouse?? A Grand Nat finalist and a state championship in the couple of years and they aren't a powerhouse? Do I like their shows now as much now as I did the 07/08 shows? No, but the level of achievement they reach with a band their size and the old school approach they take (none of the flashy props or story lines)...they're a powerhouse in my book.