2014 BOA San Antonio Super-Regional Predictions

[Amusicman]

  On 10/15/2014 at 2:59 AM, MusicalClarinet said:

I understand, but like ugh, read. They are going to Duncanville (in texas).

Cedar Ridge is actually competing at the California BOA regional

[Jellyfishes]

.

[Jbl3770]

OK - This in not as advanced as the TXBANDS survey - but I took results to this point looking at the top 6  finishings - this is not weighted based on the actual placements you listed but the total number of you that predicted a top 6 finish

 

may update later if there are more entries

HEBRON       12

CTJ                12

BOWIE           11

MARCUS        10

TWHS              8

LEANDER        8

LD BELL           2

VANDERGRIFT, CEDAR PARK, BRAZOSWOOD, REAGAN - ALL AT 1 EACH

 

just interesting to look at - i will keep you posted

[bandamonium]

Hebron

James Bowie

Marcus

Claudia Taylor Johnson

The Woodlands

Leander

LD Bell

Flower Mound

Round Rock

Vandegrift

Ronald Reagan

Cedar Park

Spring

Vista Ridge

[Hard Core Band Fan]

All I'm going to say is remember last year when only a few thought Round Rock was going to do well at the Grand Nationals and they got 4th in the prelims, 4th in the semis, and 4th in the finals (and a music caption in the semis). So far, most everyone is putting them as a bottom-feeders in the BOA SA finals. If they could have the same kind of push that they had last year, I could see them doing well here and at the 6A State finals. I'm not saying they will, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I've seen some not-so-strong performances from the typical big boys so far this year and there could be some shake-ups. It should be fun to watch!

[knoxisawesome348]

  On 10/16/2014 at 4:48 AM, Hard Core Band Fan said:

All I'm going to say is remember last year when only a few thought Round Rock was going to do well at the Grand Nationals and they got 4th in the prelims, 4th in the semis, and 4th in the finals (and a music caption in the semis). So far, most everyone is putting them as a bottom-feeders in the BOA SA finals. If they could have the same kind of push that they had last year, I could see them doing well here and at the 6A State finals. I'm not saying they will, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I've seen some not-so-strong performances from the typical big boys so far this year and there could be some shake-ups. It should be fun to watch!

You're right about that. I remember noticing that not even the Round Rock students predicted themselves to place as high as they did for Grand Nats (the highest prediction I remember seeing on the list was 5th place). I also recall that the forums came to a consensus last year that the top 6 at San Antonio would be Marcus, Hebron, LD Bell, CTJ, and The Woodlands no questions asked. Well, 2 of those (the 2 that historically dominated this competition for nearly the past decade at that) ended up coming in 8th and 9th place, so our predictions at a "top 6" this year could easily be just as off. If you had told anyone that Marcus would come in 8th place after scoring a 96.1 the year before you would've been laughed off the forums.

[Rubisco]

I'm going to have to predict pretty loosely this year. Unlike last year, I don't feel confident declaring a band the likely champion after seeing the early regional videos. I'm tempted to say Hebron, but again, I still think that might be getting ahead of myself. It's all going to depend on what happens within the next three weeks.

 

Likely Top Five (alphabetical)

 

Claudia Taylor Johnson

Hebron

James Bowie

Marcus

The Woodlands

 

Top Threats to the Top Five (alphabetical)

 

Flower Mound

L.D. Bell

Leander

Round Rock

 

Other Finalists (alphabetical)

 

Cedar Park

Ronald Reagan

Spring

Vandegrift

Winston Churchill

 

Outstanding Music Performance - 1. Hebron 2. James Bowie 3. Claudia Taylor Johnson

Outstanding Visual Performance - 1. The Woodlands 2. James Bowie 3. Marcus

Outstanding General Effect - 1. Hebron 2. Claudia Taylor Johnson 3. The Woodlands

 

I think we have two coins this season. Two sides of one coin are Hebron and Marcus. These are bands that sound quite a bit like concert ensembles on the field. There's a ton of calmness, warmth, and clarity in how they play. They also don't water down their music as much as other groups when they translate it to the field. Both of their shows this year are a bit sentimental and whimsical as well. They aren't as fast-moving and thrilling (in the traditional sense) as some of their competitors, but they more than make up for it with other things. I love, love, love that Marcus is doing Russian Christmas Music this year. It's such a nostalgic piece for me, and of course they do it justice. The drill in their opener is also highly sophisticated, befitting a show called Imperial Treasures. Hebron is the group that had me declaring that everyone should be peeing their pants after I heard a stand-still performance of their entire show. There is so much demand in the music it's absolutely insane, and the level of achievement is extraordinary-- and will only get more extraordinary as the season progresses.

 

The two sides of the other coin are Claudia Taylor Johnson and The Woodlands. These are groups that are highly Drum Corps-esque. Both of their shows this year are fast, in-your-face, unsentimental, and quirky. Watching CTJ's finals show from Conroe was like watching a rare specimen creep out onto the field at night. There was something truly exquisite about the whole thing. CTJ plays so powerfully, but with such clarity, and they seem to have a whole lot of fun doing it. This show is sprinkled with small, ingenious moments, like when they superimpose the flute solo from Mvmnt III of The Symphonic Metamorphosis on top of Herbie Hancock's Chameleon. It's without a doubt the cleverest music moment of the year. More than anything else, I want them to place in the top 3. It's the only thing I hope for the results at San Antonio, especially after CTJ missed it the last two years with excellent shows. As for The Woodlands, yes, they were upset big time by CTJ, but I wouldn't count them out, especially given what was clearly a weaker performance in finals, and the fact that they are known to skyrocket in quality by late season. (Oh, and the show was incomplete.) What they lack right now in brass energy, ensemble contribution, and volume can be A.) Fixed by the time San Antonio rolls around, and B.) Made up for by the fact that their show design is the bee's knees. I will say this, the show is already great visually, and it's only going to come across better way high up in the Alamodome press box (where the GE judges are) where you can actually see all the arrow props and arrows being made in the drill.

 

James Bowie is sort of the odd one out for me. It's such a fun, quirky show. I thought the level of their performance in finals at BOA Austin, both musically and visually, was way beyond what I was expecting. It was really exceptional. I think they're a definite threat in both of the performance captions at San Antonio, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the top three again. This is a group that is absolutely one of the most consistent groups in the state of Texas, especially after what happened last year at BOA San Antonio, where the two most dominant groups ever at the SA Super Regional dropped into the bottom half in finals. Alongside The Woodlands, it seems like Bowie's always within the top 3 or 4 groups at San Antonio and has never placed outside the top half of finals at the Super Regional, though I know that they actually totally missed finals in 2006 shortly before making national finals the same year. Anyway, super consistent group.

 

I think this is probably the best I'll be able to do before seeing the shows performed at San Antonio!

[Jackson1]

Awesome recap!!!! Being a DFW homer I'm curious on your thought on your next four bands. Flomo has a great show. Well designed! Beautiful music. If the tighten it up they may may a splash in SA and Indy. Bell also has a great show just not as grandiose(?) as usual. I like that the music is more focused. The flag work in the closer is mesmerizing. Can't wait to see where that show ends up.

 

I am familiar with Round Rock from their incredible run last year and before. I am not familiar with Leandar and think I should be as I am hearing great things about their program.

 

If you have time I would love to hear your thought on the above bands. San Antonio is going to be incredible!!!

 

Thanks for posting your thoughts! Great stuff!!

[Rubisco]

Here are my thoughts on what I called the "Top Threats to the Top Five", as requested.

 

Flower Mound. For some reason, I thought this group was doing a bunch of Samuel Barber music, though it turns out that it's only their ballad that is by Samuel Barber. Anyway, their show this year is by far the best they've ever done. It opens calmly with concert French horns, and then it floors you, typical Texas GN finalist style, with a wall of sound. If I recall correctly, it then segues into Torke's Javelin. There's something about the calm and deliberate way that they play Javelin that reminds me of their neighbor, Marcus. The drill, while not extremely fast moving here, is also reminsicent of Marcus in its level of sophistication. I also love their color palette this year. Lots of purples and pinks and whatnot that look great on the green of the football field. The white columns from last year are put to good use, producing beautiful tapestries pulled out onto the field. The bassoons in the box during Barber's Violin Concerto is like a cherry on top, a little gift for the audience. (Careful with that double-reed intonation, though!) It's like a purple flower opening up on the field. I expect FM to comfortably make finals at Grand Nationals this year. Best of luck to them!

 

L.D. Bell. What is there to say about L.D. Bell, really? They're one of the most consistent groups in the state of Texas, and until recently, they were the best marching band in the state. While the level of the performance might not be what it was a few years ago, that's not saying all that much, because a few years ago they were the best. Their show this year, Vertical Meditations, has a creepy, Hollywood movie aesthetic to it. In parts, the guard and band seem to worship ladders. The general feel of the show is mysterious, dark, and gloomy. The audience is lulled into the nightmare with a very beautiful, but eerie flute solo-- something which seems to have become an L.D. Bell trademark. I love how the somewhat minimalistic, tango-like woodwinds in the opener give rise to pointed trombone attacks and glissandos. Even more, I like how all of this music is reflected in the visual package.

 

Leander. Who would have guessed that this group would have done as spectacularly well at BOA Austin as they ended up doing? Their show this year is just so far beyond what I expected from them that it's breathtaking. The opening drill is a masterclass in how less can sometimes be much, much more. It fits the music perfectly. The entire opener has a very suggestive feel to it, as if to indicate that something great is on the way. That's when they hit the ballad, which is far and away the best ballad of the year. Yes, it was sort of creepy of me, but I immediately looked up Leander's All-State results from last year to see if they had a clarinetist make it, because that clarinet solo is just an absolute wonder. The tone quality, the complete warmth of it, the way the phrases are perfectly contoured. Julliard, I say! Julliard! The ballad actually made my eyes get a *little* wet. That's a pretty powerful thing, especially since I was watching a video recording of it and not a live performance (and I'm not a terribly sentimental person). Anyway, Leander is my top pick for top threats to the top 5. When you see them, you'll understand why.

 

Round Rock. Top Five Grand National Finalist last year. If anything, that tells you to never rule out Round Rock from hitting a home run late season. I think in the early season video I saw of them, I mentioned something about there could be a bit more clarity in their sound. Round Rock is very much an exciting, wall-of-sound kind of band. They are in no need of energy or excitement, though a little more control would be a welcome late-season development. They open with Arabian Nights from Aladdin, which I found to be super charming and should thrill all the Disney lovers out there. They segue into The Wind and the Lion, and very quickly everything is fast, exciting, and Lassiter-esque. I absolutely love when they pull the Persian rug out onto the field. It's such an unexpected visual moment. I know some people criticize bands when their props don't do much but sit there, but I would argue that any prop, regardless of whether or not it's a cardboard cactus or a rocket ship that shoots off into the air, completely changes the visual balance of a program. For instance, I think Hebron's props added a ton of visual effect to their show, especially since it's clear that the drill was written with them in mind. It's all about that balance, and Round Rock understands this.

[takigan]

Leander has the unusually rare skill of not making Finals at early season BOA (Dallas, Conroe etc.), but then ends up making finals at BOA SA (made SA Finals in '08, '09, '12, missed it by one in '13).

I wonder what's going to happen at SA now that Leander is not only making finals at early season, but DOMINATING at it!

[alyglad87]

I like the way some of you think with these predictions.

[principalagent]

I just about completely agree with Rubisco's analysis. I think CTJ and Hebron are the two battling for the win at the moment. Hebron's execution is out of this world, and CTJ's design is quite spectacular. The Woodlands, Bowie and Marcus can definitely break that though, and they'll likely round out the top 5.

 

Leander's show is a break out this year, and they should lead the next pack, and even challenge the log jam in the top 5. Bell and Round Rock both are known for pushing in the late season, and they could also challenge higher. Assuming Flower Mound doesn't intend to peak yet, they'll probably round out the next four. All nine of these bands are locks, as far as I'm concerned. I would be a bit surprised to see any fall out of the top 10 for that matter.

 

I think the next four spots after that go to Vandegrift, Ronald Reagan, Cedar Park and Spring in some order. Reagan probably has the highest chance of punching above this grouping. The last spot is tough to place. My favorite dark horse is Lake Ridge, whose visual package is insane, but Berkner, Richland, Hendrickson, Aledo, Vista Ridge and Churchill can challenge that. If Westlake cleans up from Austin, they could very well make finals and place towards the middle as well.

 

Regardless, it's a going to be an amazing show!

[CrownMan18]

  On 10/18/2014 at 3:25 PM, alyglad87 said:

Bowie's show (imo) is not as good as last year (with regard to music and visuals.) 

 

I saw Bowie at a football game 2 weeks ago and I have to respectfully disagree. Their show design is coming together quite nicely and I think that their music and drill is already cleaner than their show last year was at the end of the season. They continue to get better and better and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them place higher than they ever have before at San Antonio this year.

[Mellorips]

Last year was really crazy, but I'd be worth mentioning that last year Reagan got 5th in finals even though people were expecting them to not make finals, I was just wondering why people still put them in the bottom half?

[~ME~]

  On 10/18/2014 at 9:54 PM, Mellorips said:

Last year was really crazy, but I'd be worth mentioning that last year Reagan got 5th in finals even though people were expecting them to not make finals, I was just wondering why people still put them in the bottom half?

Personally, I don't expect Reagan to finish in the top 7, but I still expect them to finish in the top 10. I think I can give you a few reasons as to why people are putting them in the bottom 7 places in finals as opposed to the top.

 

1). CTJ, Hebron, Bowie, Marcus, and The Woodlands are going to be incredibly hard to beat. Now, we may ultimately be wrong like we were last year, but that doesn't change the fact that as of right now, the general consensus seems to be that these are the best bands in Texas at the moment. Throw in the fact that FloMo and Leander have extremely well designed programs this year along with other top notch groups like Round Rock and Bell, and you've got a ton of bands that will be tough competition. But like I said, I expect Reagan to finish among the top 10, and to be one of those tough bands.

 

2). Last year's SA results were a little... strange (i.e. The 7th place band winning the Music Caption, Marcus going from 3rd in prelims to 8th in finals, The Woodlands finishing 5th in prelims ). Not saying that they were wrong placements and that bands didn't deserve the placements they got (seriously, I want to make it VERY clear that I have no intention of discrediting anyone), but the results were at least odd enough to raise some eyebrows, rather they were wrong or right. Not that it matters anyways, because:

 

3). Every year is different. I think Leander's breakout year this season is a perfect example of this.

 

4). People basing predictions off of early season placements. I don't think that this is the brightest thing to do (especially when it comes to Reagan). I can guarantee you that not everyone does this, but I wouldn't be surprised if it shaped some of the predictions you've seen. Also, for the people that DON'T do this, that leads to Reagan being virtually unpredictable at San Antonio.

 

 

You do make a good point though. Since 2010 Reagan has shown that they are VERY capable of finishing around the 5-6 area, so it certainly is a possibility that I wouldn't count out this year.

[ben_thatdrummer]

Top 6 I believe will be(in no particular order)

Hebron

Leander

The Woodlands

Claudia Taylor Johnson

James Bowie

Marcus

All of these bands will be in finals, almost guaranteed.

The next 6 bands also in no particular order

Flower Mound

Cedar Park

Round Rock

Ronald Reagan

LD Bell

Vandegrift

I believe the last 2 finals spots are up for grabs, some bands to look at would be

Vista Ridge

Richland

Plano East

Anderson

Aledo

Spring

Friends wood

[snares]

I completely agree with you. 100% across the board, top six, bottom six. I think friends wood has a really good chance at making finals, but we will just have to wait and see! Finals is only 13 days away!

[CrownMan18]

I'm curious to see how the three TX regional winers (CTJ, Bowie, and Hebron) will stack up against each other at San Antonio this year. Any thoughts?

[snares]

I personally think that marcus has a better chance at placing higher than CTJ and Bowie. I like Marcus and Hebron more than any other show in the state. That is just my opinion. My top four is

1) Hebron

2) Marcus

3) CTJ

4) Bowie

 

Again this is just my personal thoughts and predictions, but I think hebron is ahead of ctj and Bowie.

[knoxisawesome348]

I know it goes against instinct to predict a (relative) newcomer to place higher than bands that are always on top, but Leander is looking and sounding far more exceptional than I was expecting. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they beat at least one of everyone's "top 5" (CTJ, Marcus, Bowie, Hebron, The Woodlands). At the very least, I'm willing to bet they are top 6.

 

REALLY wish they had taken this show to nationals, but oh well. Bet they would've taken the class AAA championship. Visually, I'd say they're currently near the top for Texas bands as well. 

 

 

 

As far as the order of the top 6 goes, I'm still really unsure. Hebron's music performance is incredible and I think they'll take the music caption (and probably win).

 

The Woodlands has a great design that musically is on par with what they had on the field last year in terms of GE. My favorite musical moment of any show I've seen this year is definitely when they play "Everything in its Right Place" by Radiohead. Super cool effect. However, their visual GE has taken a bit of a dip, but not a significant one. I'm honestly a little confused how they placed 3 whole points below CTJ at Conroe, but they're the same band that won a grand national class championship (GN semi-finals) 6 years before they even won their first regional championship, so by november I think they'll be at the top of their game. 

 

How Marcus, CTJ, and Bowie place in respect to each other is incredibly difficult to call. They have 3 very different show designs, and are 3 bands with very different strengths. I would hate for any band to be disappointed in their placements, but for one band to move up, one must move down. 

 

So that being said (and not having seen videos of Marcus or Bowie since BOA Denton and Austin respectively), my top 6 is now looking a lot like last year for CTJ and Bowie:

 

1. Hebron

2. The Woodlands

3. Bowie

4. CTJ

5. Leander

6. Marcus

[crossblue82]

Knox,

 

Leander is certainly not a newcomer, unless you mean it more in the context of being in the

elite recently. They have a proud BOA history including a regional championship and a Grand

Nationals finals performance. They did however fall off the big radar for a few years but have

made great strides, and really stepped it up this year, to get back in the discussion of the best

bands in the state. I think they got new visual people they love right now, strong musically and

have one of the best guards in the state. That guard has really helped propel them as well.

They're not going away soon, they have tons of momentum, growing numbers and I'm close to

the program and know they have a great group of kids, attitude and talent right now. They really

believe in the product they are putting on the field right now and it shows. Even though people

know Leander, they are by far the 'most improved' or 'where did they come from' group this year.

I'm hopeful for a top 5 finish, maybe more, and a chance to fight for visual and GE captions overall.

Call me selfish but they can easily sweep 3A captions and win 3A convincingly at SA. They really

are a step above Cedar Park and Vandegrift this year. Gotta love LISD.

[Rubisco]

Knox, I agree with most of it. I think Hebron will win the music caption. Right now, it's the caption I feel most confident about. I think the difficulty/accomplishment ratio will give them the edge in it, although I think Bowie might actually be producing the better quality ensemble sound. Bowie will (or at least should) be up there in both performance captions. That's also why I would give the edge to Bowie over Leander going into the competition, because I have a strong feeling that Bowie will score moderately higher in performance-- more than I think Leander could beat them in GE, but anything is possible. GE is a pretty powerful thing in BOA!

 

I watched the videos of CTJ's performances before The Woodlands' performances. In finals, this was the exact order, though in prelims, The Woodlands had the benefit of performing last, well after CTJ performed in the morning. CTJ's performance in finals was extremely passionate, loud, and energetic. In comparison, The Woodlands seemed anemic. Also, the effect of the ballad was demolished by the failed electronics. Anyway, I actually think you have it backwards with regard to TW's Music GE being stronger than the Visual GE. If I recall correctly, John Howell, who, by the way, was probably the most veteran BOA visual judge on that panel, had TW first in visual GE over CTJ by more than a point in prelims. In fact, it's where TW generated most of the point gap they had over CTJ in prelims. I think TW's music book is wonderful, but they need a passion transfusion in their performance if they want to take GE at San Antonio. This is why I'm giving the edge to CTJ right now. Music counts for more of the score. The Woodlands does, however, have history on its side. For at least a decade, it seems like they've added at least 10 points to their early regional score. Plus, they always beat one or more groups that beat them at the early regional, which would have to be CTJ this year.

[CrownMan18]

  On 10/20/2014 at 10:43 PM, Rubisco said:

Knox, I agree with most of it. I think Hebron will win the music caption. Right now, it's the caption I feel most confident about. I think the difficulty/accomplishment ratio will give them the edge in it, although I think Bowie might actually be producing the better quality ensemble sound.

 

Are you basing this off of Bowie's performance at BOA Austin? Or a more recent performance of theirs? Im just curious because I thought that compared to Bowie's Austin performance, Hebron's Denton performance had just a tad better ensemble balance and blend. I do realize that Hebron performed a whole week after Bowie did, which is why I'm kind of wondering which Bowie performance you are basing this off of. 

[Rubisco]

I'm basing it solely on those two performances. It is quite close, though. I'm pretty confident the demand of Hebron's music will put them on top. The other two captions are more difficult to predict.

[snares]

I think any of the "general consensus top 5" (woodlands Bowie marcus hebron CTJ, not saying these bands are an automatic top 5) have a shot at taking visual. That's up for grabs. I think the woodlands might be the leader of that caption. But GE is where it gets interesting. I think that woodlands and hebron have the best general effect, but hebron just seems to emerge as the leader there. But I guess this is just my prediction which is probably gonna be wrong as I found out last year (I had marcus taking second at BOASA)