2014 BOA San Antonio Super-Regional Predictions

[bandamonium]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iz2p26W96ps

Recent Video of Marcus

 

Recent Video of Hebron

 

Just saw Bowie at Region 18 contest last night, I think they could easily rival these performances, if not beat them. It's going to be a very exciting end to this season!

Is anyone going to Area D competition?

[ctx]

I agree about Bowie. Someone earlier said that they were one of the most consistent bands in the state. Year after year they have been right there. I figured this year would be no different...they would have a great show but probably fall short to Hebron or Marcus. And then I saw their show. I have seen the BOA Austin regional and most recently UIL. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is their year. Long overdue.

[Rubisco]

Going through the more recent videos, I actually think Leander could win the San Antonio Super Regional. They are unbelievable in that UIL video. What a wonderful show. I love how they use one of the progressions in Rocky Point Holiday to segue into Over the Rainbow at the end. It is so unexpected. Brilliant, brilliant stuff, and a really rousing closer to what was already a great show. Also, based on these videos, I'd be very surprised if Hebron or Marcus take the visual caption. (I guess that means I should replace Marcus as a nominee for the visual caption with Leander or a different group.) Then again, I'm going almost entirely on ensemble performance and not individual performance. Plus, they've got time to clean. It's not like it's the most desirable caption anyway. You just don't want it to cost you a win, which I know has happened to Marcus in the past (2006).

[Rubisco]

For anyone that has seen Bowie more recently, have they added any props to their visual package since BOA Austin? There's a sparseness to the way the drill is written that suggests that there might be props that weren't made in time for the regional.

[bandamonium]

  On 10/23/2014 at 8:22 AM, Rubisco said:

 

For anyone that has seen Bowie more recently, have they added any props to their visual package since BOA Austin? There's a sparseness to the way the drill is written that suggests that there might be props that weren't made in time for the regional.

They have added new tree limbs to the uniform to fit the theme (If a Tree Falls). They also added roots to the tree stump that the oboe player falls off of in the ballad. Other than those changes I don't think they're adding anything else.

[Rubisco]

Thanks. Maybe what I'm reading as sparseness was done on purpose. I guess it would sort of make sense, given the whole "If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it" thing.

[snares]

I do agree that Leander probably has one of the if not the strongest visual shows so far. They also sound very good. But honestly their show doesn't really come close to difficulty when it comes to tempo and miscue ship as marcus or hebron. I mean their show still may be hard, but marcus and hebron always blow out everyone in the difficulty level. Boa also has some sort of multiplier for difficulty of show. That will really help those lewisville schools (hebron and marcus). Also, the one reason I still have hebron on top is that their show has a fantastic general effect. Everything flows. It's an amazing show, that still tells a story extremely well. That's what I love. Marcus doesn't have as great of a GE but they still have very cool music. That's why I have them winning state.

 

Has anyone seen either hebron or Marcus' UIL Region performances?

[Pear]

  On 10/24/2014 at 2:34 AM, SnareSnare13 said:

I do agree that Leander probably has one of the if not the strongest visual shows so far. They also sound very good. But honestly their show doesn't really come close to difficulty when it comes to tempo and miscue ship as marcus or hebron. I mean their show still may be hard, but marcus and hebron always blow out everyone in the difficulty level. Boa also has some sort of multiplier for difficulty of show. That will really help those lewisville schools (hebron and marcus). Also, the one reason I still have hebron on top is that their show has a fantastic general effect. Everything flows. It's an amazing show, that still tells a story extremely well. That's what I love. Marcus doesn't have as great of a GE but they still have very cool music. That's why I have them winning state.

 

Has anyone seen either hebron or Marcus' UIL Region performances?

Interesting view point. Personally I never found Marcus or Hebron to have extremely hard shows. The way these two bands got it done was through making their shows with as little flaw as possible. Every year these guys are very clean and that is why they are always in the running for the gold at State. Tempo wise I will disagree with you in that I actually think that the schools in Dallas play slightly slower tempos to sound really good while schools such as Claudia Taylor, Leander and the Woodlands push tempos to gain GE points for their lack in music clarity at times. Lastly, I do agree that herbon has a well designed show but so does everyone in the top for the most part. It will come down to who can execute that Saturday night.

[LKendrick]

Slower, doesn't mean easier.  Faster, doesn't mean harder.  

[Xenon]

In 2012, Hebron had unison open rhythmic technique that was spread across the field 80 yards apart. The difficulty of that alone is beyond insanity.

[knoxisawesome348]

Last year it seemed at least somewhat clear going into San Antonio that Hebron and The Woodlands were the top 2, and even then the top 14 switched COMPLETELY in order between prelims in finals. This year I think the water is a bit muddier. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if CTJ came in 1st in prelims and Leander in 5th, while in finals Leander comes in 1st and CTJ in 5th. I'm betting the score gap at the top will be razor thin (think 2001 GN finals thin - 1 point separating the top 5 bands).

 

On a side note, I'm going to also predict that Leander places first in visual GE. 

[Rubisco]

Honestly, last year, I didn't think Hebron would win going into it. I predicted a Woodlands win the night before the competition (pretty much the whole season, actually). It wasn't until the competition itself that I thought Hebron might have a shot, because I was way more impressed by the show than I was at Conroe, where I saw it live. That, and also the prelims results were uber bizarre, which led me to think I wouldn't see eye to eye with the judges. I ended up being right in the end, though just barely. That's also why I'm more cautious this year. Things can surprise you.

[Jellyfishes]

.

[stentem]

  On 10/24/2014 at 11:10 PM, Rubisco said:

 

Honestly, last year, I didn't think Hebron would win going into it. I predicted a Woodlands win the night before the competition (pretty much the whole season, actually). It wasn't until the competition itself that I thought Hebron might have a shot, because I was way more impressed by the show than I was at Conroe, where I saw it live. That, and also the prelims results were uber bizarre, which led me to think I wouldn't see eye to eye with the judges. I ended up being right in the end, though just barely. That's also why I'm more cautious this year. Things can surprise you.

[stentem]

Rubisco, really like your analysis. You send very knowledgeable. I do believe that if TWHS cleans things up before SA, they will take it again this year. Really surprised CTJ took them in finals and disappointed to hear some of the nasty comments from the parents in the stands about knocking off the reigning BOA champs. Classless.

[Rubisco]

Thank you.

 

I'm not sure I would be so harsh about the whole "beating the reigning champion" response. I can't really blame them. I'd be thrilled, too. It was a big upset. Besides, it seems like the two programs have a very good relationship, considering TWHS invited CTJ to their band hall and whatnot. I wouldn't read into it too much.

[Rubisco]

My 200th post will be completely wrong predictions for the top 6 at this Saturday's BOA contest. (Go Leander!) I've tried to watch the most recent videos of groups possible, and I just saw the Area F contest live. For those of you that are interested, there's a video of Hebron's Area finals performance already up on YouTube. Just search for "Hebron Nix". Great video and great performance. If I get a chance to watch the SA finals stream in its entirety, I'll be sure to update these predictions with ones that are much more accurate and complete. Hahaha. I certainly don't feel all that confident!

 

1st Leander

2nd The Woodlands

3rd Hebron

4th Claudia Taylor Johnson

5th Marcus

6th James Bowie

 

Outstanding Music Performance - Hebron

Outstanding Visual Performance - The Woodlands

Outstanding General Effect - Leander

 

Recent videos of Leander, Hebron, and Marcus are available on YouTube, but there really isn't anything recent for the other three. I just saw The Woodlands live, so that leaves CTJ and James Bowie as my "wild cards". The Woodlands' show has changed... uh... a lot since Conroe. Another very avant garde show brought to you by the guy that brought you Star '91, Blast!, and the Bluecoats' Tilt show. To paint a picture: the arrow props that spin and are moved around on the field are now painted magenta on top, which looks so much better than the blue (I think) they were colored before. The band begins in the endzone in body-sculpted chaos. As a pre-recording of Radiohead's Everything in Its Right Place plays, the band creeps out onto the field LD Bell 2006-style, Broken Arrow 2012-style and the arrow props that are already out on the field begin to spin chaotically. The opening set congeals, and after the announcer finishes, the band begins with The Canyon, now with added movement. Speaking of added movement, it's all over the place-- typical for late-season Woodlands. Even transitions into certain drill sets, like into the arcs of the ballad, have been made to look more "chaotic" with added movement. Even so, the show is clean. (I only see Bowie possibly challenging them in the visual caption, though who knows.) Big musical hits have also been modified. For example, they now end the opener with 3 power chords in what is clearly a homage to last year's show. They've also added some brass parts to the opener that I think were previously only played by a synthesizer. Throughout the show, Thom Yorke's distorted voice from EIIRP pops up in a way that's effectively disorienting. The band itself sounds great, very controlled, loud, though I'd prefer even a little bit more volume and energy. The enormous 50+ member guard is extremely well-integrated into the show, demonstrates a variety of skills, and is probably better than it has been since 2007. Unlike your typical Wes Cartwright show, they don't abuse the flag ocean, saving it only for the powerful last statement of the show. Anyway, my head says The Woodlands (or *maybe* Hebron) will win on Saturday, but my heart says Leander. So, I'm going with my heart, though I reserve the right to change my opinion when I realize that I've placed everything in its wrong place.

[Rubisco]

I also want to add that I think Reagan was low-balled at Conroe and could place considerably higher than expected.

[beowulf]

  On 10/26/2014 at 7:48 AM, Rubisco said:

I also want to add that I think Reagan was low-balled at Conroe and could place considerably higher than expected.

Reagan was wonderful last night.  Reagan-Johnson-Bowie were very evenly matched.

[Rubisco]

For the record, I'm not predicting the other placements yet because I work from the top down, and I don't have the top figured out!

[Rubisco]

Your 2014 BOA SA Adjudication Panel

Music

Scott Atchison
Carl Bly
Chip Crotts
Allan Kristensen
Paul McGarr
Steven Page
Ken Snoeck
Jay Webb

Visual

Lee Carlson
John Howell
Kyle Miller
Chris Moss
Tim Ochran
Jeff Young

If anyone knows the specific prelims/finals assignments, feel free to post them!

[mnblaker97]

I agree with most of the top five placements that everyone is posting but Bowie beat CTJ at area so it could be close!

[marzlovesjj]

  On 10/26/2014 at 7:43 AM, Rubisco said:

there's a video of Hebron's Area finals performance already up on YouTube. Just search for "Hebron Nix". Great video and great performance.

 

 

 

 

 

All videos of Hebron (this season) on Kevin Nix's account were removed.

[~ME~]

I'll update my thoughts and predictions on who I think the top 6 will be one last time... (My predictions for the other 8 finalists have just about stayed the same).

I'm going to say Hebron wins it. Hebron always steps it up a bit at San Antonio, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a visually improved Hebron with a complete show win the whole thing. I think they've got Music in the bag, and I also think they'll be first in visual GE (they very well might win overall GE, but it will be close). However, it's the Visual Performance caption that I think will make or break them, so we'll see.

I'm going to say The Woodlands will be a CLOSE second unless Hebron doesn't improve enough visually to hold on, in which case they'll win. They step it up more than any other band does at San Antonio, and they're going to be firing on all cylinders. I say they will win Visual.

I think this is CTJ's year for a medal so I'm going to have them at third, though Bowie may medal again as well. I'm personally not predicting either of them to win a caption, but it's a possibility for sure obviously.

I know this is going to sound a little strange, but I'll say Leander takes 5th, taking first in music GE (I think they have the best written show musically this year) and winning the overall GE caption. I could be totally wrong about this because there's really no way to know this from videos in the stands, but the reason I have them in fifth is because I could see them struggling to keep up with Hebron, Woodlands, CTJ, Bowie, and Marcus from an individual performance standpoint. Like I said, I'm making a rather uneducated (and probably stupid) guess with this one, but I could see it happening. Regardless of how they place though, I think Leander takes the cake for my favorite show of the year.
 

I'll put Marcus at 6th, but I could easily see them place higher with their music and visual performance scores (both individual and ensemble).

 

Can't wait for next weekend, it's so close to being that time once again! 

[snares]

Can someone explain to me exactly how General Effect at BOA is judged?