2014 BOA San Antonio Super-Regional Predictions

[LKendrick]

  On 11/1/2014 at 8:05 PM, SnareSnare13 said:

I think marcus will win visual, but I think their sister band in hebron will win music. GE is where the blood bath will be

 

The reason I think Marcus wins Music is their Individual scores from the field are usually insanely high, I'm also taking that into account.  We'll see.  I think Marcus/Hebron will be close in Music, for sure.  

[Rubisco]

I got a chance to watch the first three in the last block (TW, Bowie, Marcus). Then I watched Hebron from earlier. It was a little bit more of a direct comparison than what the judges got. (Unfortunately, I can't say anything about Leander and CTJ.) I think Hebron and The Woodlands are probably out in front right now, as many people predicted. I really enjoyed the additions Hebron has made. The pre-show, which really sets the mood, is so lovely, with all the guard girls mopping the field. Heck, the entire show is lovely, and their musicality is as predicted insane. They sound so fabulous. The ending is also so much more powerful than what they brought to UIL. On the flip side, I thought their show was clearly the least clean of the four groups I saw. I don't know how much that will hurt them, but I can't imagine it preventing them from winning, if they get the GE advantage. (Note how I said "least clean" and not dirty. The show isn't dirty, obviously.) The Woodlands show was like getting bitten by a rattlesnake. It's completely unsentimental (which actually could hurt them compared to Hebron), but so aggressive and so absolutely thrilling. They sounded and looked so much better than they did at Conroe. They also probably have the most creative show of the 4 groups I saw. It wasn't the cleanest run I've seen from them, but I'd still have them in first place in visual performance. I thought they were clearly the strongest of that first group of 3 in the final block, as amazing as that group was. That means that I'd be pretty surprised, though maybe not entirely surprised given the competition, to see Hebron or TW place outside of the top 3 in class AAAA, since even if CTJ is among the top 3, that leaves two open spots.

 

So, based on the tiny bit I've seen, music caption in class AAAA to Hebron, visual caption to The Woodlands, GE to either Hebron or The Woodlands. Hebron and TW battling for first, with Marcus in third. (By the way, I adore both Marcus' and Bowie's shows. I'm just completely floored by the displays of talent. Also, I could see Marcus posting a high visual GE score. I just love everything about the drill and the color scheme, though I'd probably have them in 3rd after TW and Bowie in visual performance.)

 

Wonderful performances all around. Finals is going to be amazing!

[LKendrick]

I do think the top 3 is The Woodlands, Hebron, and Marcus.   I think Hebron/Marcus will win Music, The Woodlands/Marcus will win visual, and all 3 could win GE.  Gonna be close!  4th - 10th or so and 11th - 16th is just going to be a bloodbath coming down to tenths and consistency across the board, one low score could kill anyone in those groupings.  

[Jellyfishes]

.

[Rubisco]

I guess I could see Marcus winning either of the performance captions. It's certainly not unreasonable, especially since it's hard to judge individual performance when you're not on the field. Heck, it's hard to judge anything when you're simply watching a video. Like most I'd imagine, I probably do better with live predictions.

[~ME~]

First off, I've gotta say that Lake Ridge blew me away. Last year they already showed that they aren't afraid to FLY around the field, but this year they have really started to develop a good sound as well. They definitely have a very, very bright future ahead of them if they keep improving at the rate they have been so far these past two years. 

 

Hebron, The Woodlands, and Marcus seemed to be the clear top 3 in prelims. Unless they have a bad run, I really think Hebron's going to be the winner tonight. That new ending is all sorts of awesome. I would probably have Marcus second in prelims, and The Woodlands third, but I think it's very close between them (I think Woodlands was definitely the best visually in prelims, but I think Marcus was much better musically than Woodlands, and probably the second best visually). Can't wait to see what happens...

[LKendrick]

We'll see, Individual scores can throw a wrench in anyone's predictions (Broken Arrow at Nationals in 2012 anyone?).  

[Rubisco]

What about CTJ? For those that have actually seen them, do you think Marcus has the edge over them? Performing on the first day might not be all that helpful for them in prelims, though they did walk away with a GE caption last year after prelims. Coincidentally, it looks like the finals performance order in the middle could be Marcus, The Woodlands, CTJ, and Hebron, one after the other.

[sosaswag]

Is there a way to see the actual scores from prelims before finals? 

[~ME~]

  On 11/1/2014 at 8:46 PM, Rubisco said:

What about CTJ? For those that have actually seen them, do you think Marcus has the edge over them? Performing on the first day might not be all that helpful for them in prelims, though they did walk away with a GE caption last year after prelims. Coincidentally, it looks like the finals performance order in the middle could be Marcus, The Woodlands, CTJ, and Hebron, one after the other.

I think CTJ certainly has a shot at the top 3, but I think Marcus definitely has an edge over them in the performance captions. However, GE could very well be their saving grace, and I also think they are stronger than The Woodlands musically. I'm very interested to hear these prelims results, that's for sure.

[Rubisco]

CTJ sounded great in finals at Conroe, so I'm assuming they'll post a high score in music performance, as well as a very solid GE score. In fact, I think all the groups at the top will post high scores in music performance, which is why I think the groups will be distinguished more on the basis of visual performance and, of course, GE.

[LKendrick]

It could end up being like last year with Hebron where the most consistent across the board, even if it's second in every caption ends up winning prelims, and win or be VERY close in finals.  

[LKendrick]

Alright, my top 14:

 

1st - Marcus

2nd - The Woodlands

3rd - Hebron

4th - Claudia Taylor Johnson

5th - James Bowie

6th - Leander

7th - Vandegrift 

8th - LD Bell

9th - Flower Mound

10th - Ronald Reagan

11th - Round Rock

12th - Friendswood

13th - Cedar Park  

14th - Westlake

 

Don't ask why, lol I'm still not sure.  Those last 3 spots in my opinion could go to A LOT of bands.  

[Parkwoodmom]

Who are these judges again?

[Rubisco]

Well, to all those that said a GE winner could place lower than 3rd, you just got your validation! Hahaha. Way to go Flower Mound! That must feel good going into nationals.

 

The performance captions weren't surprising. I didn't see CTJ, but I know they sound excellent. Bowie was the group I had in second place after The Woodlands in visual performance, so if TW wasn't going to win it, I would have had Bowie next in line. Really puzzled by the absence of Hebron in the top 3 in class AAAA, though the top 3 is certainly a strong, deserving group. Maybe Hebron's visual performance was an Achilles' heel. I would say performance time, but CTJ performed the previous day and still ended up in the top 3. Mind you, the main goal of the judges in prelims is to determine the finalists, not the champion. That's a difficult enough task when you've got to judge 64 groups.

 

Congrats to all the finalists! I'm excited!

[knoxisawesome348]

After seeing Flower Mound win GE, I'm a bit surprised they didn't place in class. But that just shows how close the scoring is I guess. I'm expecting an entirely different outcome in finals like last year.

[~ME~]

Wow, congrats to Vista Ridge on their first BOA San Antonio finals appearance! Very well deserved! 

 

And those 4A results sure were interesting... Only one of the caption winners finished in the top 3 (and it wasn't the GE winner)? This definitely looks like it will be all over the place just like 2013. It's very exciting having no idea what's going to happen!

[Rubisco]

Marcus, The Woodlands, CTJ, and Hebron perform one after the other in finals. You don't get more of a direct comparison than that. Leander and FM go on a couple bands before them.

[Rubisco]

After watching finals, my personal favorite is still Leander! I'm not entirely convinced the judges have shared my immense love for them, but I hope they place up there in the top 5 or 6 somewhere! I wasn't as blown away by The Woodlands or Hebron in finals as I was in prelims. Maybe it was the performances, maybe it was performance order psychology, or maybe it was the fact that I've seen both shows so many times now that I've spoiled them for myself. It should be close among all groups at the top. Then again, some judges have very strong opinions!

[stateband2015]

And how about Dripping Springs placing 6th in BOA Atlanta tonight!  Way to show them what a Texas band can do!  

[Rubisco]

Surprise, surprise! Way to go CTJ, Bowie, and Leander! A few head scratchers, but when aren't there?

 

Finals Results:

1) 93.35 - Claudia Taylor Johnson
2) 92.15 - James Bowie
3) 91.80 - Leander
4) 91.00 - Marcus
5) 90.10 - The Woodlands
6) 90.05 - Hebron
7) 89.95 - Cedar Park
8) 88.90 - LD Bell
9) 87.35 - Ronald Reagan
10) 87.05 - Vandegrift
11) 85.05 - Round Rockd
12) 84.70 - Westlake
13) 84.55 - Flower Mound
14) 84.00 - Vista Ridge

Music - Tie - Leander & Marcus
Visual - Tie - Claudia Taylor Johnson & James Bowie
General Effect - Claudia Taylor Johnson

[LKendrick]

Wow.  Just.  Wow.  Flower Mound is the only one I had a negative reaction to their placement.  Marcus was complete shock.  Just woah.  That was the most unexpected Finals retreat I've ever watched, and not in a bad way!  Excited to dig into those recaps.  Congratulations Claudia Taylor Johnson on your first Super Regional Championship!  

[Rubisco]

And, like I said, some judges have very strong opinions, which would explain the gaps that, in my opinion, should be much, much smaller.

[LKendrick]

  On 11/2/2014 at 4:58 AM, Rubisco said:

And, like I said, some judges have very strong opinions, which would explain the gaps that, in my opinion, should be much, much smaller.

 

You're automatically jumping to that?  Wow, haven't even seen the recaps and you're jumping to that already.  Unless you were on the field watching those individual captions you have no idea, those can make it or break it some times, Grand Nationals 2012 for instance.   I'd love to know which judges have "opinions".  

[Rubisco]

Oh, lord. Calm down. We'll see in a few minutes whether or not I misspoke.