Popular Post principalagent Posted October 29, 2015 Popular Post Posted October 29, 2015 LD Bell won't be in San Antonio finals. They'll be in Atlanta finals instead. bandamonium, Xenon, vincentlee1220 and 1 other 4
bandamonium Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 Top 6 (random order) Hebron Flower Mound Claudia Taylor Johnson James Bowie Leander Ronald Reagan Finals locks (random order) Marcus The Woodlands Cedar Park Round Rock Bubble- Vandegrift Vista Ridge Hendrickson Westlake Wakeland Keller Coppell Cedar Ridge Captions- Music- Ronald Reagan Flower Mound Hebron Leander Visual- James Bowie Ronald Reagan Hebron Flower Mound General Effect- Flower Mound James Bowie Ronald Reagan Hebron
HighToes Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 2:22 AM, principalagent said: LD Bell won't be in San Antonio finals. They'll be in Atlanta finals instead. oo awk. ok bump down everything and insert Dripping Springs to grasp last.
HighToes Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 2:16 AM, Samuel Culper said: You've got quite a list of bands there thay will NOT finish ahead of Vista Ridge. :-) well this is a mixture of shows I've seen and soley placings that I've seen, so... I'm not very accurate here haha
bandamonium Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/28/2015 at 5:44 AM, Chaseguy15 said: Bowie will be very clean of course but they may be a slight disadvantage GE wise compared to other bands. I believe a combination of the two is what separates the good from the great and this year, many bands have this. Just a thought, but Bowie has won the GE caption at both competitions they went to this year. They beat Ronald Reagan, Leander, and Cedar Park respectively in this caption. Definitely doesn't seem to be a disadvantage to them.
HighToes Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 2:16 AM, Samuel Culper said: You've got quite a list of bands there thay will NOT finish ahead of Vista Ridge. :-) On 10/29/2015 at 2:20 AM, vincentlee1220 said: LD Bell not in finals is a bit of a stretch. And as an alumni, come on, at least put Vista Ridge in the bubble Oh um. Is this the Vista Ridge you're talking about. Oh um. How have I not heard about them yet?! Oh um, I've changed my predictions...
takigan Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 It feels really weird putting the Woodlands in 8th after they won the Eagle in '13, made top 5 @ San Antonio last year, and took 3rd in prelims at Conroe this year behind the SA champ from last year (CTJ) and a rising Reagan which managed to best CTJ in Finals.....but that's where I ended up having to put them.For all intents and purposes, TWHS's prelims performance at Conroe would slate them for the bronze medal at San Antonio when you consider who they lost to.....but the fact that Round Rock had the highest Finals pre-penalty score at Austin (ahead of Leander, who got 3rd at San Antonio last year--ahead of TWHS...even though Leander is actually a stronger band THIS year) only to go on to Arlington and place 4th behind their crew of Hebron, Marcus and a breakout Flower Mound....unless TWHS is stronger this year that's about where you have to put them.But the real kicker is TWHS could totally WIN it all and it wouldn't surprise me in the least bit! And that goes for pretty much every single band in this insane Top 10. The top 3 from BOA Austin, Arlington and Conroe will all be there (not to mention every single finalist from both Arlington and the ridiculously close Austin regional)...plus Owasso (missed GN Finals by 1 last year) to spice things up even further. I have Wakeland in 13th.....and they got 15th at Nats last year! ...Insane. And with FloMo, Leander, Hebron and Reagan having some of the most engaging shows in many years, this is going to be a very exciting Finals to watch! I'm looking forward to it.All this, and LD Bell won't even be there.... HighToes 1
LKendrick Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 Looking at performance times, growth in recent weeks, show development, cleaning, changes, when bands seasons end, ect. this is shaping up to be something pretty crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of last years finalists out, some new faces, someone in the top that isn't expected, ect. This is going to be crazy, and I can't wait. HighToes and NTXBandFan 2
NTXBandFan Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 2:54 AM, bandamonium said: Just a thought, but Bowie has won the GE caption at both competitions they went to this year. They beat Ronald Reagan, Leander, and Cedar Park respectively in this caption. Definitely doesn't seem to be a disadvantage to them. FloMo Won GE in the two competitions they were in as well over Marcus in both, and Hebron & Round Rock among others in Arlington. On 10/29/2015 at 2:10 AM, HighToes said: Hebron Flower Mound CTJ Reagan Leander Bowie Woodlands Cedar Park Round Rock Marcus Vangergrift Owasso*** Cedar Ridge** Vista Ridge** Changed it-- Forgot Marcus and Vista! GE: Hebron, CTJ, Bowie, Leander Music: Flower Mound, Hebron, Reagan Visual: Hebron, CTJ, Reagan **= potentially not in finals In my opinion, there is a RIDICULOUS amount of groups that could take the last three spots: Dripping Springs Westlake Aledo Brazoswood Cy-Fair Hendrickson Morton Ranch Oak Ridge Spring Wakeland T.W. College Park Shocked you have FloMo listed under music, which is usually their weak point, while leaving them out of GE, which their show is known to be loaded with this year.
bandamonium Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 4:16 AM, NTXBandFan said: FloMo Won GE in the two competitions they were in as well over Marcus in both, and Hebron & Round Rock among others in Arlington. Shocked you have FloMo listed under music, which is usually their weak point, while leaving them out of GE, which their show is known to be loaded with this year. Yeah in some ways I think Bowie and FloMo will be fighting for GE with other groups like Hebron, Marcus, and Reagan thrown in the mix.
natertater21000 Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 Really hoping rain doesn't hurt the Friday pre lims bands, it's looking like it could complicate or even delay the contest.
VictoryRun Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 I'd just like to take a moment to acknowledge how absolutely STACKED this competition is!!! Texas bands really prove why they are most of the best in the entire profession from competitions like this, and good luck to everyone performing this weekend!!! Now for rankings, I really feel like the absence of Duncanville Invitational leaves massive room for "upsets", as we can't compare the Arlington and Conroe regionals in terms of scores. But, this is my guess regardless: 1)Hebron 2)Flomo 3)Reagan 4)CTJ 5)Marcus 6)Leander 7)Woodlands 8)Cedar Park 9)Round Rock 10)Bowie 11)Vista Ridge 12)Vandegrift 13)Cedar Ridge 14)Wakeland That being said, I think, I think the last 3 or 4 spots could be taken away by any of these bands: Coppell, Westlake, Hendrickson, Dripping Springs, Keller, Owasso, Oak Ridge (did really well at BOA Conroe!), Cy-Fair, Brazoswood, Friendswood, or Spring. I think FloMo takes GE, Hebron takes Music, and Reagan and CTJ tie for Visual. From past showings, FloMo's GE points have been insane and I think that this will continue to this weekend. Marcus should definitely give Hebron a run for its money in Music though. Both Reagan and CTJ are so so so sooo good at being perfectly consistent visually and I think they are really the only two contending for that caption. HighToes 1
HighToes Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 4:53 AM, VictoryRun said: I'd just like to take a moment to acknowledge how absolutely STACKED this competition is!!! Texas bands really prove why they are most of the best in the entire profession from competitions like this, and good luck to everyone performing this weekend!!! Now for rankings, I really feel like the absence of Duncanville Invitational leaves massive room for "upsets", as we can't compare the Arlington and Conroe regionals in terms of scores. But, this is my guess regardless: 1)Hebron 2)Flomo 3)Reagan 4)CTJ 5)Marcus 6)Leander 7)Woodlands 8)Cedar Park 9)Round Rock 10)Bowie 11)Vista Ridge 12)Vandegrift 13)Cedar Ridge 14)Wakeland That being said, I think, I think the last 3 or 4 spots could be taken away by any of these bands: Coppell, Westlake, Hendrickson, Dripping Springs, Keller, Owasso, Oak Ridge (did really well at BOA Conroe!), Cy-Fair, Brazoswood, Friendswood, or Spring. I think FloMo takes GE, Hebron takes Music, and Reagan and CTJ tie for Visual. From past showings, FloMo's GE points have been insane and I think that this will continue to this weekend. Marcus should definitely give Hebron a run for its money in Music though. Both Reagan and CTJ are so so so sooo good at being perfectly consistent visually and I think they are really the only two contending for that caption. It would be pretty cool to see Reagan get ahead of CTJ. I mean even though I'm more of a CTJ fans, I like new things also!
Rubisco Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 I'm not going to bother with placement predictions this year. Everything early season was way too close, and comparing scores across contests is an extremely unreliable method of making predictions. The best I can go off of is what I've seen and my own thoughts about the shows. (And to be perfectly honest, nothing has really floored me yet -- the result of my fastidiousness.) Until last year's San Antonio, I could watch an entire finals and rank all the groups either exactly the same as they ended up, or very close to it. I have a feeling that this year will be the same as last year, when I watched the entire finals and had groups near the bottom that somehow placed in the middle-of-the-pack instead. It was all such a mess. Actually, it sort of started in 2013. A couple of days before the contest, I confidently declared, "The reason The Woodlands is going to win on Saturday night is because blah blah blah," and then prelims results rolled around, and I was in shock. I ended up being right about SA finals, but those prelims results were really the first taste of the instability that we got a heavy dose of in 2014 and will almost surely get again this year. In fact, my feeling at this point is that the most shocking thing that could happen on Saturday night is for a band to sweep the captions. That wasn't so shocking just a few years ago. If you want to see where I would group the groups (but not really rank them) before seeing them at SA, you can see all that on the BOA forums thread. It's all based on having seen good mid-season videos. I still haven't really seen mid-season Bowie, and definitely not mid-season FloMo or Marcus, so those groups could end up being the most pleasantly surprising! Anyway, best of luck to all. In the meantime, I'm off to search for a way to record the live-streams on Friday and Saturday. For posterity, you know! Parkwoodmom 1
principalagent Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 I still can't decide specific placements, so here are groupings instead. Group 1: Leander Hebron Flower Mound Ronald Reagan I think the winner comes out of these four, and I think the captions will go exclusively to these four. Wouldn't be surprised to see ties occur like last year. I'm thinking Leander has a great shot at first, and probably by doing what they did at Austin - being the consistent second place group caption-wise as other groups end up high in one caption and low in another. I also think their strong performance at UIL makes them a contender for performance captions as well. But I could see anyone in this group winning with truly fantastic and well designed shows. All of these groups will have GE scores >54, and probably >55.5, barring any wackiness like last year's Music GE scoring. Group 2: The Woodlands Marcus Bowie CTJ For what it's worth, I think TWHS is more like group 1.5. Their show is coming along quite nicely, but I think it needs more time to grow. They may not catch Hebron on Saturday, but I think they'll jump them in Indianapolis based on what I've seen mid-season. It's weird putting the other groups in 6-8 range, but I haven't seen Marcus yet, in full disclosure. For the other two, I'm not sure their shows have the same effect as last year and definitely not the same execution (although Bowie's design could propel them forward). Group 3: Cedar Park Round Rock Vandegrift While I think they came out of the gate guns blazing and may be cooling off, I could see Cedar Park jumping up. Round Rock could very well play up too. Vandegrift will likely end up in this range, but solidly. Group 4: Wakeland Owasso These are the last two groups I'm willing to put anywhere close to a lock conversation, without quite saying they're a lock for finals. Bubble: Hendrickson Keller Vista Ridge Dripping Springs Friendswood This will be vicious. I don't know what will happen between these five, but I think these five groups have the best chance of claiming the last spot. Here's hoping for a tie for 14th in prelims? Three-way tie maybe? I plan on going to the majority of Saturday prelims - from Flower Mound on - if weather isn't bad in the morning, but am definitely going for finals. I can't wait!
Bandbandband123 Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 This is a bit unrelated, but isn't Hebron getting new uniforms this year? I wonder if they'll debut it at San Antonio.
FloMoParent Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 I saw Marcus's complete show last night at the community performance (FloMo is tonight). I believe they will be competing for a medal.
NTXBandFan Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 3:48 PM, FloMoParent said: I saw Marcus's complete show last night at the community performance (FloMo is tonight). I believe they will be competing for a medal. FloMo doesn't have a community performance tonight. It's just a rehearsal.
Bring The Mojo Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 3:48 PM, FloMoParent said: I saw Marcus's complete show last night at the community performance (FloMo is tonight). I believe they will be competing for a medal. It's not really a community performance, but we're changing into full uniforms for the run through around 6:30.
Rubisco Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 On 10/29/2015 at 12:50 PM, principalagent said: I still can't decide specific placements, so here are groupings instead. Group 2: The Woodlands Marcus Bowie CTJ For what it's worth, I think TWHS is more like group 1.5. Their show is coming along quite nicely, but I think it needs more time to grow. They may not catch Hebron on Saturday, but I think they'll jump them in Indianapolis based on what I've seen mid-season. It's weird putting the other groups in 6-8 range, but I haven't seen Marcus yet, in full disclosure. For the other two, I'm not sure their shows have the same effect as last year and definitely not the same execution (although Bowie's design could propel them forward). If The Woodlands is going to play hopscotch (and they might not), they'll probably do it by Saturday night. Why do I think that? Mainly because of their history. In 2006, they were 5th place at Arlington, away from 1st place LD Bell by 5 points. By SA, they added 17 points to their score and placed 2nd, jumping over Marcus and poor Bowie, whom they beat by a whopping 7+ points in prelims at SA. In 2007, TW's show was such a mess early season that they withdrew from the Pearland regional. They still ended up a comfortable 3rd at San Antonio and 4th at Nationals. In 2009, they placed 3rd in their class and 4th overall in prelims at Pearland, losing out to groups like Brazoswood. They were beaten by SFA by over 3 points in prelims and a little over a point in finals. They ended up beating SFA by over 6 points at San Antonio and placed 3rd overall. In 2010, TW was 5th in finals at The Woodlands Regional (ha), down by 5 points to Cedar Park, who placed 2nd. At San Antonio, they placed 4th, beating everyone who beat them at The Woodlands Regional besides SFA, who did not attend San Antonio. They beat Cedar Park by over a point. In 2011, TW was 4th in prelims and 3rd in finals at Conroe. They were down by almost 4 points to Marcus. At San Antonio, they placed 2nd, beating Marcus by almost 2 points and SFA, who beat them in prelims at Conroe and was close to them in finals, by over 8 points. In 2012 and 2013, TW won their early season regionals and placed 2nd and 1st at SA, respectively. 2014 is really the first year in recent memory that they didn't beat a group that beat them early season, although if they had attended San Antonio in 2008, I seriously doubt they would have topped LD Bell, who was the only group that beat them at Houston. Also, I think people might be surprised by what Bowie and Marcus bring to SA in a couple days. They are both incredibly consistent groups. Bowie, for example, has placed in the top 3 at SA the past four times they've gone, and I think their show this year is better than most of their recent shows. BaritoneBro 1
HighToes Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 yeah, I'd agree with you in saying Flomo could take GE On 10/29/2015 at 4:16 AM, NTXBandFan said: FloMo Won GE in the two competitions they were in as well over Marcus in both, and Hebron & Round Rock among others in Arlington. Shocked you have FloMo listed under music, which is usually their weak point, while leaving them out of GE, which their show is known to be loaded with this year.
snares Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Here are my updates: 1-6 Marcus Flomo Hebron Leander Reagan Bowie 7-10 CTJ Woodlands Cedar Park Round Rock 11-Bubble Hendrickson Wake land Owasso Vista Vand Music- Marcus or Flomo Visual- CTJ or Bowie GE- Hebron or Leander So as you can tell, my captions are all over the place. I really have no idea what will happen. The top 8 will probably end up being historically close this year, I can pick any of them to win. This is crazy. Marcus has moved up my latter because I saw their football game and MAN they're clean. I wouldn't say that they necessarily have a hard show but they're very Marcus, very good, almost perfect. I actually think Flomo and Leander might be the two bands in not sure will stay in the top 6. Yes Flowermound won Arlington, but that was competitive against what I'm assuming is very little of hebrons closer. Marcus didn't seem to be quite what they usually are, which probably contributed to the 1.2 ish point gap between them and silver, but they're a ton cleaner now. Leander is kind of in the same boat in the sense that I think they grew faster at the start than other bands. I also think there's a chance TWHS springs up and steals a medal. I love the factoid Rubisco provided, they didn't even medal in prelims of San Antonio. Round Rock will probably be ahead visually. But for me the outliers are Bowie and Hebron. Bowie seems to have a monster of a show popping up down there in San Antonio. I think they might be my favorite to win it right now. And then Hebron, and as much as I love their ballad, I just think Bowie might have the edge. And people keep saying what they think will be the crazy thing that happens this year is, here's my crazy situation: Hebron wins prelims ahead of Bowie and CTJ, winning their first ever caption at a super regional in VISUAL. Surprising right? Here's another curve, the winner of finals won't win a single caption. I think we might see that in Bowie. We just might. Then Hebron will fall to bronze, CTJ down to the 5-8 range, and Reagan shooting up and taking fourth, and Leander improving last year with a second place finish and a music caption. Reagan will take GE, and Marcus with visual. I'm probably wrong on all of this like usual Last thing, 1-8 are separated by less than 3.5 points
natertater21000 Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 We could definitely see a huge flip flop from pre lims to finals given that it's looking more and more like Friday pre lims bands will not get warm ups
principalagent Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 If I'm not mistaken, they'll do indoor warmups if it rains. Not advantageous, but not the end of the world by any means.
trumpetdrumajorpower13 Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 On 10/30/2015 at 5:15 AM, principalagent said: If I'm not mistaken, they'll do indoor warmups if it rains. Not advantageous, but not the end of the world by any means. I've heard the same thing
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