2016 Nationals

[Bonertrom]

flomo+marcus 2k17

[natertater21000]

Cedar parks complete show from a rehearsal is on YouTube under the channel bjconnpac.

 

I really love how this show has come together, the closer is great and man can they play. It's gonna be interesting to see where they land in both San Antonio and grand nationals. Personally I don't quite think they will medal at either but they are a probable upset for top half at both events in my opinion.

[Hard Core Band Fan]

  On 10/14/2016 at 2:35 PM, natertater21000 said:

Cedar parks complete show from a rehearsal is on YouTube under the channel bjconnpac.

 

I really love how this show has come together, the closer is great and man can they play. It's gonna be interesting to see where they land in both San Antonio and grand nationals. Personally I don't quite think they will medal at either but they are a probable upset for top half at both events in my opinion.

 

Cedar Park always performs well and sometimes I think they don't get the respect they deserve. I think they will be top half in both. The fight for medals is going to be a blood bath and I don't want to guess who those bands will be, other than Flower Mound. I'm just going to watch and enjoy. I will say that I don't rule out an upset on someone no one is expecting to do as well as they will do - at both BOA San Antonio and the Grand Nationals.

[JTApex]

  On 10/14/2016 at 2:21 AM, Bonertrom said:

flomo+marcus 2k17

Highly unlikely Lewisville ISD would allow both those schools to go in the same year.

[crossblue82]

Leander fielded entire show last night and it is up on YouTube.

Just search Leander 10/14 Fourth Dimension.

Last minute and a half is pretty cool. Big GE moment.

Now a month to clean and improve.

[LKendrick]

Have been keeping my eye on out of state shows:

 

At the Illinois State Championship O'Fallon Township nearly 3 points Marian Catholic, dethroning Marian Catholics winning the event every year since 2008.  

 

O'Fallon Township - 89.15

Marian Catholic - 86.2

 

Last week in California Vista Murietta scores as close as they ever have to Ayala, 1.4 behind.  

[Hard Core Band Fan]

  On 10/14/2016 at 9:55 PM, JTApex said:

Highly unlikely Lewisville ISD would allow both those schools to go in the same year.

 

Well, you never know. Round Rock ISD let Round Rock and Cedar Ridge go in 2013 and North East ISD is letting CTJ and Reagan go this year. It could happen!

[trumpetdrumajorpower13]

  On 10/19/2016 at 2:03 AM, Hard Core Band Fan said:

Well, you never know. Round Rock ISD let Round Rock and Cedar Ridge go in 2013 and North East ISD is letting CTJ and Reagan go this year. It could happen!

And Leander ISD is letting Cedar Park and Leander go in the same year as well.

[Fwguard17]

I thought I had read somewhere that finals this year would be a top 6/next 6 draw instead of the usual random draw for finals (poor Hebron...). Can anyone confirm this?

 

Obviously we will have more info afte the Supers, but here are my tiers for Nationals after all the regionals we've seen:

 

Fighting for Gold

Tarpon Springs

Ronald Reagan

Carmel

 

Top Six Probables

Leander

Avon

William Mason

 

Definite Finalists

CTJ

Bowie

Cedar Park

 

My Pick for the Last Three

Union

Owasso

Ayala

 

Could replace any of the above:

Marion Catholic

Dobyns-Bennett

Wando

[LKendrick]

I think that Claudia Taylor Johnson has the most potential for growth myself, yes they started (for them at least) a bit slow but there is the possibility of them really exploding in November. That show was a huge work in progress the last time I saw it, but in terms of music and Music GE I wouldn't be surprised to see them pop some huge numbers in San Antonio and at nationals.

 

They're the sleeper this year. The one that got kinda written off after a slower start. Those can come back to bite.

 

Leander has a ton of room as well tackling that closer and fleshing the rest out.

 

Ronald Reagan, James Bowie, and Cedar Park are a lot farther ahead in performance and production value/show completion so they'll have more time to perfect but I could see some shake ups in a few weeks.

[Fwguard17]

To Clarify the Above

 

 

  On 10/19/2016 at 4:51 PM, Fwguard17 said:

Top Six Probables

Leander

Avon

William Mason

 

 

The first surprising thing about my prediction is Mason being so high.. Ahead of CTJ and Bowie???!! Yes. Mason has consistently been a strong finalist, has an awesome show that won a regional by 3+ points and (I've heard) has the full attention of one Wes Cartwright. Watch out everyone.

 

  On 10/19/2016 at 4:51 PM, Fwguard17 said:

My Pick for the Last Three

Union

Owasso

Ayala

 

Could replace any of the above:

Marion Catholic

Dobyns-Bennett

Wando

 

The next surprising thing for most people will be me leaving Marion Catholic out of finals. This would be a massive upset as they've been a finalist for my entire life. However, the number of quality bands attending from afar (Texas) and the fact that this is there most recent performance:

 

Means unless they have some late season magic, their in trouble to miss finals.

[natertater21000]

I'm very excited to see what ctj has on the field in San Antonio. I also feel like the show they are doing is so difficult that it affected their start but once it's all down its gonna be killer.

[Hard Core Band Fan]

  On 10/19/2016 at 5:07 PM, Fwguard17 said:

To Clarify the Above

 

 

 

 

The first surprising thing about my prediction is Mason being so high.. Ahead of CTJ and Bowie???!! Yes. Mason has consistently been a strong finalist, has an awesome show that won a regional by 3+ points and (I've heard) has the full attention of one Wes Cartwright. Watch out everyone.

 

 

 

The next surprising thing for most people will be me leaving Marion Catholic out of finals. This would be a massive upset as they've been a finalist for my entire life. However, the number of quality bands attending from afar (Texas) and the fact that this is there most recent performance:

 

Means unless they have some late season magic, their in trouble to miss finals.

 

That video was less than impressive, but they still have a couple of weeks. Those kids work really hard and are talented, but that show is just really flat to me. But, being that they are Marian Catholic means that they will have to really perform badly to miss the finals. I just can't ever see that happening because of politics and no judge wants to be on the panel that denied them for the first time. Don't think it will happen this year.

[Fwguard17]

  On 10/19/2016 at 5:51 PM, Hard Core Band Fan said:

That video was less than impressive, but they still have a couple of weeks. Those kids work really hard and are talented, but that show is just really flat to me. But, being that they are Marian Catholic means that they will have to really perform badly to miss the finals. I just can't ever see that happening because of politics and no judge wants to be on the panel that denied them for the first time. Don't think it will happen this year.

I definitely agree with the political angle. This is pretty evident by the fact that they've consistently placed higher in semifinals than in prelims/finals. I simply think this is shaping up to be the "perfect storm" year for them. The number of Texas bands, the growth of union and owasso and the fact that they've been slipping over the last few years. I also heard that they're playing some of the same music as Tarpon, though I can't confirm that.

 

Besides, predictions are more fun if they're bold!

[natertater21000]

Finally found a video of tarpon...I don't think this season will end any differently than 2014 what a show

[bingogooberman]

  On 10/14/2016 at 9:55 PM, JTApex said:

 

Highly unlikely Lewisville ISD would allow both those schools to go in the same year.

I think the suggestion was that with state now occurring the same week as grand nats, the fact that attending both contests would require the band to miss an entire week of school (plus the Friday before potentially for SA) the district would be unwilling to let their bands compete at both contests in one year. Therefore, flomo gets bumped up to 2017 with Marcus

[LKendrick]

I don't think Tarpon is going to be unbeatable at Nats, but the list of bands that will be able to do it is very limited.  Tarpon's got huge advantages in terms of production value, GE, and visual performance.  All it would take is the right show, a really strong music performance, and bands being able to get close in visual.  

 

Definitely not saying it will be easy but there are a handful of shows that I saw early on that had huge potential, 3 or 4 come to mind.  We shall see!  

[crossblue82]

Leander's UIL region run is up on YouTube.  I am very excited after seeing that.  Maybe part of me had some minor doubts if they could break into the top 3 at nats (or even have a chance at the Eagle) but after seeing that I am fired up.  In my opinion great strides were made in a week.  It appears a little cleaner and a lot of the visual stuff I would have liked to have seen added have indeed.  It's almost as if every part of the show I saw a need for something visually it was compensated for.  Lots of the cube work (or I bet they really should be referred to as tesseracts) has been added, especially in the final big GE sequence.  If they can continue to improve upon the challenging at and times, very exposed music, and continue to fine tune and clean visually they will be a force to be reckoned with.  Note that on the video they are starting the show at a later point than the very beginning to accomodate to the UIL 8 minute rule.  If you are not familiar with the show you may have to supplement with an earlier video to see the beginning sequences of the show leading up to that point.  My Leander homerism aside my best guess if nationals happened today would be as follows:

 

1. Tarpon ( have seen online )

2. Reagan ( have not seen anything on them)

3. Leander

4-6 Avon, Carmel, Mason (in any order)  (they could easily make top 3 and I have them just a HAIR behind right now, but like I said I haven't seen either of these bands on video, let alone a live performance...

7-9 CTJ, Cedar Park, Bowie

 

CTJ is one that could really move up the ladder in my opinion if they clean that show up.  I think it is at least within possibility for Leander to have a shot at the crown but I think it will take an amazing run in finals both visually and musically.  Whereas Tarpon might could win the thing running at 90%, I think Reagan and Leander have no margin for error if they want to beat Tarpon.  So excited, only 3 more weeks...

 

Thoughts?

[natertater21000]

After seeing Johnson a couple days ago at a game I think the show is really coming together but still needs a fair amount of work in the cleaning and polishing department. As for Reagan I've got no clue. I've seen a partial video from conroe but not enough to make a conclusion on how I think they will do, I know it'll be well the question is how well.

 

On the subject of Leander I completely agree. I was getting a tad nervous about them staying in the medal range for nats but after seeing the amount of improvement and additions made in one week I feel fairly confident that if they keep that up over the next two weeks that they will stay in medal contention.

[LKendrick]

Can't seem to find this region video.

[natertater21000]

there ya go

[akinez]

As a member of the CTJ Band, I must admit that I absolutely love Reagan's show, especially that beautiful opener. They really have been making a comeback this past year and a half. 

[crossblue82]

I'm not sure if they are off at the very end with that frantic tempo, but I can tell you if they are ( Leander ) it is because the DM's were pushing the tempo hard because apparently they finished at 7:58 or 7:59 by my clock.  Yikes!  I heard they almost went over the 8 minute threshhold so I would bet that's what happened in that case.  Again, love the changes I've seen.  I have not seen Reagan but watching Tarpon I didn't look at that show and say it was a lock for first.  Favorites?  Probably and almost definitely but they can be beaten in a few weeks...  Thanks for sharing the video tater I didn't see it on YouTube any longer either once LKendrick made mention of it.

[natertater21000]

Seems all of our Texas schools will be going on Friday morning, from 8 am to 1 pm.

Leander goes on right after tarpon springs so an easy early comparison is cool.

[takigan]

  On 10/25/2016 at 4:17 PM, natertater21000 said:

Seems all of our Texas schools will be going on Friday morning, from 8 am to 1 pm.

Leander goes on right after tarpon springs so an easy early comparison is cool.

 

Sounds about right.  Texas schools have gone on Thursday before, but bands who are more than 500 miles away from Indy have priority for Friday timeslots.

 

Edit: I'm not directing that towards you specifically....just to the readers in general.