Realignment 2016-18: UIL and TMEA

[principalagent]

TMEA and UIL are working on the new region and area expansion (to 33 regions and 8 areas) and realignment. You can see what they're proposing here: http://align.tmea.org/index.php for more, but beware that it's a pretty slow website. Disclaimer that UIL and TMEA often break areas up separately (like now, they're in many ways different and not too sensical - especially TMEA D), but I would suppose they would start off the same or nearly so in 2016.

 

Here's what I've noticed so far:

 

Area A:

Not much change in this area. They moved the North and West Ft Worth suburbs out of the area, which makes it easier for the West Texas schools to advance to state and helps travel times as well. However, there are fewer state advancement spots in the bigger classes. It's also worth noting that zoning this Area like they did in 2014 would probably result in one fewer advancement spot.

 

Winners: Pretty much everyone.

Losers: Pretty much everyone if they zone the larger classes.

 

Area B:

Some huge changes here. Most notably, Lewisville ISD (Marcus, Hebron, FloMo) all got moved out, and Coppell got moved in from C along with the Keller schools from A. This Area ultimately only got slightly easier to advance out of (if at all), and is still projected to pretty much only have about 4 advancers. The Area still stays large for 5A, with a couple of new competitors from old A as well.

 

Winners: Keller ISD

Losers: Nobody in particular. 

 

Area C:

Another huge shakeup. The Area loses its anchor in Dallas and becomes much more expansive of North Texas. With Duncanville and Coppell gone, one would think it easier for some schools on the edge of advancing to become more competitive - namely North Mesquite, Sasche, and Lake Highlands within the past few cycles. However, moving in Marcus, Hebron and Flower Mound makes this Area a fair bit harder to advance out of than it was. Again with Area B, this area would likely only have four advancers (and honestly, maybe three), creating the same issues Area C had with clear heirs apparent year in and out.

 

Winners: Nobody really. This Area may actually become more difficult than it already was.

Losers: Everyone. Think about the close calls Coppell and Duncanville have had in old Area C. Can you imagine Hebron or Marcus missing?

 

Area D:

Probably the largest shake up. It begins to look like old TMEA Area D, minus the North Houston suburbs. It's also worth noting that the Pflugerville schools were moved to Region 26, displacing the Leander schools. This district becomes Dallas proper down to Northeast Austin suburbs out to the Louisiana border, encompassing a wide range of schools and probably only allowing 5, maybe four advancers. However, leaving out NE ISD from San Antonio and Austin proper eases the competition a bit in exchange for effectively just Duncanville.

 

Winners: Bands that just missed advancing from Area D recently like Round Rock and Hendrickson, but they'll still have to compete. 

Losers: Area D will still be tough as nails to get out of, just by virtue of the current strength of the Northeast Austin schools. However, the race for finals should ease up.

 

Area E:

Pretty much a new area, taking the Western part of Central Texas now. Leander ISD and Dripping Springs are in very tough shape now, as this area will likely only advance three in 5A with probably the best five bands in the classification (note: this may get better or worse depending on LISD growth). However, those three, barring any new developments, will pretty much be set to sweep medals. The schools of old area D also get more breathing room in this area for 6A. This area should advance five. Watch this area to be the growth of marching in Texas for the rest of the decade, like Houston in the 90s and DFW in the 00s.

 

Winners: Like new Area D, the bands who were on the edge in old Area D like Anderson and Churchill, unless LISD schools start moving back up to 6A.

Losers: Leander ISD and Dripping Springs, big time. Northside ISD schools who have to compete in a tougher area with fewer advancing spots. Also, if enough LISD schools move back up to 6A, then this area becomes really not much better than old D.

 

Area F:

No major changes here, except for this is more North Houston than everything-but-directly-west-of Houston now, with the Cy schools taking over for schools like Brazoswood, Friendswood, Pearland/Dawson and the Clear schools - probably slightly easier for Area F. Besides A and new H, this may be the most inconsequential realignment.

 

Winners: I think with a more expansive second Houston area, yet retaining it's size, most everyone wins.

Losers: Nobody really loses either. Honor Band should get a little more fun with Jersey Village and Langham Creek in the mix, but still maybe lighter with Brazoswood and Friendswood out. Some Cy schools will have a tougher road to State marching, but have more advancement spots to play around with than in old Area E.

 

Area G:

Don't let 49 schools fool you. Many of these schools, unfortunately, will not advance to area, but this area will still advance about 6 (7?) to state, giving Katy and Ft Bend schools much more breathing room, especially with Cy-Fair out. Regions 17 and 19 and Brazoswood also move out of a slightly crowded F to new G, also allowing them a bit more room too. It seemed as if Metro Houston had too few spots in the old alignment relative to Dallas, and this evens the score a ton.

 

Winners: Everyone.

Losers: Nobody.

 

Area H:

Pretty much old G, but with East San Antonio schools instead of West and North ones. Also not a huge change, but one or two fewer spots to advance from. 

Winners: Judson ISD for sure gets a great deal here.

Losers: Eh.

 

These are just my thoughts and speculation. Like I said, this can still change and UIL may pick a different alignment altogether. Any other thoughts? Especially on 5A, which I glossed over except for Area E?

[Xenon]

Fantastic analysis!

 

These changes are definitely going to be huge; we are likely going to see a lot of new faces at State in 2016.

[Samuel Culper]

As far as LISD goes, it looks likely Vandegrift and Vista Ridge move up to 6A in realignment. Possibly Leander as well. Current projections for those schools for 2016-17:

 

Vandy 2426

Vista 2285

Leander 2098

 

Rouse will stay 6A and Cedar Park will stay 5A.

 

Glenn will start varsity competition in 2018 as a 5A school.

[Bonelife]

Looks like top 5 in E might be Bowie, Reagan, CTJ, Vandegrift, and Westlake/Vista Ridge if Vandegrift and Vista Ridge do move up. I don't know much about a lot of the San Antonio schools and I'm extremely biased towards Austin-area schools but it looks like pretty much all the spots are going to go to former Area D-ers.

 

On a side note, what's up with those band enrollment numbers? I was looking at area D and it says westwood has 773 people that are enrolled in the band! Apparently they are also the Allen High band. Also says that Round Rock has 496. What is up with this?!? Round Rock ISD's band enrollment numbers are all sorts of screwed up. Cedar Ridge has 605 people?  I feel like I'm missing something here.

[principalagent]

Just speculating off of last year, State in 2016 with these areas (barring school splits, director changes, class moves up/down etc) would look something like

 

Area A: Coronado, El Dorado, San Angelo Central

Area B: Coppell, Bell, Haltom, Keller

Area C: Marcus, Hebron, Flower Mound

Area D: Duncanville, Round Rock, Cedar Ridge, Westwood, Hendrickson

Area E: Bowie, CTJ, Reagan, Westlake, Anderson

Area F: TWHS, College Park, Spring, Cy Falls, Cy-Fair, North Shore

Area G: Brazoswood, Pearland, Friendswood, Dickinson, SFA, Clements

Area H: Judson, Harlingen, Wagner, Hanna, Lopez, San Benito

 

which is about 38 bands at State, one more than 2014 (however, it would have been 38 if it were not for zoning in Area A). It's very clear now that Houston wins big time, the I-35 corridor relaxes a little bit, and Dallas becomes a bit worse off. South Texas also becomes worse off under this scenario. However, chances are that none of 2014's finalists would magically miss with this new zoning without other new developments.

[Jellyfishes]

.

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

Here's some speculation similar to what principalagent did, but with the 5A bands for 2017. This scenario assumes that Vandegrift and Vista Ridge will move up to 6A, and is mainly based off of 2013.

 

Area A: Hanks, Eastlake, Lubbock

Area B: Wakeland, Lake Ridge, Newman Smith, Southwest, Liberty, Boswell/Frisco Centennial

Area C: Wylie, Sherman, Poteet

Area D: Waxahachie, Connally, Georgetown

Area E: Leander, Cedar Park, Dripping Springs

Area F: Tomball Memorial, Lumberton, Waller, Tomball

Area G: Foster, Ridge Point, Barbers Hill

Area H: Alice, Calallen, Rio Grande City, Roma, Gregory-Portland, Nixon, Winn

 

(I'm kind of pulling straws for the last couple of qualifiers in Area F and for the bands below Roma in Area H)

 

There's about 29 qualifiers, barely up from 28 in 2013. Of course, we have yet to see what 2015 yields, both in terms of what bands and how many bands emerge to be qualifiers.

[Statebound]

This is a fantastic rundown. Thanks for posting. The most glaring winner in this for me is Area B and specifically LD Bell and the Plano schools. It's many months later and I still can't process that LDB did not make state. There have been consistent scuttlebut that the Plano schools were looking to ramp up their marching programs (PESH has already been decent for the past few years). This could be the catalyst do that because this Area is now wide open.

 

On the other hand, If you're in Area C you're now wondering what you did to stir Goliath. The Lewisville ISD schools obviously need to go somewhere but Area C is only going to have 3 to possibly 4 state qualifiers and you just added 3 of the top programs in the state. That's brutal.

[knoxisawesome348]

  On 7/25/2015 at 3:29 AM, Statebound said:

This is a fantastic rundown. Thanks for posting. The most glaring winner in this for me is Area B and specifically LD Bell and the Plano schools. It's many months later and I still can't process that LDB did not make state. There have been consistent scuttlebut that the Plano schools were looking to ramp up their marching programs (PESH has already been decent for the past few years). This could be the catalyst do that because this Area is now wide open.

 

I'm waiting for the day that Plano Senior and Plano West start kicking their marching programs up a notch. The Plano schools each send around 7-10 all-staters out of a very competitive TMEA Area C every year so it's not like they're lacking in quality players. I honestly don't see why these two put such little emphasis on marching when there's quite a talent base and the marchers are all juniors and seniors. I also would like to see PESH attend more BOA regionals than just San Antonio every year. I feel like they could make Conroe finals most seasons if they attended so long as the lineup isn't absolutely stacked. 

[Xenon]

This is the first time that Coppell and Duncanville haven't been in the same Region/Area since Coppell moved up to the largest classification in 2000 right after winning 4A State in 1999.

 

As everybody has noted, even with Coppell and Duncanville getting split out of Area C and into different Regions/Areas (B and D), Area C just got even more crazy. 2 State Finalists moved out, but 3 State Finalists moved in and still likely only 4 advancing. Berkner, North Mesquite, Lake Highlands, Rowlett, Sachse, etc just got a super raw deal.

 

6A Area D is basically Pflugerville ISD, Round Rock ISD, Georgetown, and Duncanville. Even though multiple recent largest classification State Finalists were moved out and only one moved in, this area will probably still have some of the best bands that don't advance out of Area. I hope D can advance 5 to State; 4 would be a travesty.

[principalagent]

More fun - the breakdown of BOA SA Finalists and UIL State Finalists under this new alignment is (with old numbers in parentheses)

 

BOA:

Area B - 1 (4)

Area C - 3 (0)

Area D - 2 (9)

Area E - 7 (0)

Area F - 1 (1)

 

UIL

Area A - 0 (1)

Area B - 2 (3)

Area C - 3 (2)

Area D - 1 (3)

Area E - 3 (0)

Area F - 1 (1)

 

This is an interesting way to see that the spread has become a bit more even, and that Area E is still probably going to be a very dominant area, considering its depth between both 5A and 6A.

[bandperson1997]

I think that Austin area schools should have their own area. As well as San Antonio schools. 

 

Area E is going to be a nightmare with the current schools, not to mention LISD schools that might move in. 

 

Seriously... 7 previous BOA San Antonio Finalists in Area E.

 

Judson and Wagner are probably rejoicing right now, they finally get to go to a different area than Bowie, CTJ, RR, Reagan, etc.

[azn]

Area C is just a huge mess of power houses. Also there is only about a total of 25 6A bands in the Area C so unless all 25 somehow gets 1st division rating in regionals during state year we could only see 4 or 3 rarely 5 advance to state xD

[takigan]

  On 7/26/2015 at 12:26 PM, Xenon said:

6A Area D is basically Pflugerville ISD, Round Rock ISD, Georgetown, and Duncanville.

 

Remember Georgetown ISD has 2 5A High Schools; Gtown and East View.  But yes....Area D 6A Finals will mainly just be Pflugerville, RR and Dville ISD schools it seems.  Dville, RR, Westwood, McNeil, Cedar Ridge, Pflugerville, Hendrickson for the Top 7.  I see Highland Park taking number 8, and Midlothian and maybe either S.G.P or one of the Irving schools taking the remaining 2 spots.

[azn]

Area C:

Area C is going to have a bitter competition for top 4 because top 5 is impossible without 25 6A bands in Area C when there is only 24 6A bands total maybe they should add another region into the Area or fix it again xD I know that UIL Region Alignment for Marching Band is deviating separately from TMEA Region Alignment for Bands and adding onto those region alignment separate from UIL School Region Alignments for Sports xD

Heavy Contenders: Allen HS, Hebron, Marcus, Flour Mound, L.V. Berkner, Rowlett

Top 4 (In Alphabetical Order) Allen (possible 4th), Flour Mound, Hebron, L.V. Berkner (possible 4th), Marcus, Rowlett (possible 4th). 

I can see that they were trying to fix the power house issue but it still exists xD Except now there is 7 Powerhouse in Area C instead of 4 power house of Berkner, Coppell, Rowlett, Duncanville

If there was a Top 5 from a band becoming 6A or adding another region possibly then....

Top 5 (In Alphabetical Order) Allen (possible 4th/5th), Flour Mound, Hebron, L.V. Berkner (possible 4th/5th), Marcus, Rowlett (possible 4th/5th)

Winners: nobody pretty much

Losers: Everybody simply because now there is a powerhouse of 6

[Xenon]

Don't forget about North Mesquite in Area C.

[bxOxAxUIL]

How will it be for 3A schools?

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

The region alignments have been finalized and the TMEA, ATSSB, and UIL areas will be posted on December 18th, 2015.

http://www.tmea.org/divisions-regions/regions/realignment-project

[hgpatx]

Finally AISD will get a better chance than it has had to put some bands into the 5A State Competition. Area D was a nightmare for AISD schools in 2013, with only 2 advancing to finals and no AISD school placing higher than 8th (LBJ). I assume that Leander will move back up to 6A because I think it's just above the cutoff point, so if the new Area E puts 3 5A bands into state regularly it would be:

- Cedar Park

- Dripping Springs

- LBJ

if 4:

- Cedar Park

- Dripping Springs

- LBJ

- McCallum

Based on 2013 Area results, without Leander Schools.

[Samuel Culper]

Leander's projections put it just below the current cutoff. If the UIL raises the cutoff they likely stay 5A.

[Xenon]

Cedar Park is a Leander ISD school.

[hgpatx]

  On 10/3/2015 at 2:44 AM, Samuel Culper said:

Leander's projections put it just below the current cutoff. If the UIL raises the cutoff they likely stay 5A.

Ok thanks. I thought the cutoff was like 2050. Thank you.

[Band_dad_of_2]

The enrollment numbers on the schools....is that a projected number by TMEA or is that what has been reported by the schools as current enrollment? 

 

I am almost certain those are old numbers....can anyone confirm?

 

 

[Samuel Culper]

Are you referring to the LISD numbers? If so, those are the projections from the school district for 2015-16 based on rezoning for the opening of Glenn HS.

[Samuel Culper]

Sorry, that should read 2016-17 school year.