2016 6A State Predictions

[snares]

Well, this is gonna be fun. (Not really)

So here are my thoughts, we're gonna see a jump from Flowermound but their show isn't as hard musically as Hebron or Marcus, so I'll put them at a 5 spot. I think they're gonna be a BOA type band, but as we've seen in past years, the marching concert bands take the cake.

I think Duncanville makes it to finals, beating out their recently separated brothers in Coppell for 7/8. I don't think we have any major changes in Houston/SanAn areas, at all actually. I think we see the same qualifiers as we did two years ago. I think Haltom might move further up the bubble, same thing with they Cypress schools. So with that, here are my finalist predictions:

(In 2014 Order)

Marcus

Hebron

Johnson

Bowie

Reagan

TW

Duncanville

Coppell

FM

Haltom

 

I'm really sorry Keller. Really really sorry. I just think this is Haltoms year. After beating Bell, I think they've shown how powerful they are.

 

Now here are my predictions:

10)Haltom

9)Coppell

8)Duncanville

7)TW

6)Flowermound

5)Bowie

4)Reagan

3)Johnson

2) ummmm

1) ummmm

 

So obviously this is a long shot of a guess. There isn't too much moving around but there still is some. I think Reagan is slowly returning (well not really slowly?). Flowermound makes their jump, I can see them as high as 4th but this is a completely different ride than BOA.

Now with the real question, who's better, Marcus or Hebron.

Considering how close they were last year (7-9) and that Hebron didn't have a very good start to their finals run through, I don't know where to even begin my predictions for this. I don't think anyone really touches them, just like two years ago. It's daring to go against Marcus' 10 years of dominance, but I think I might just do it. I'm gonna poke the belly of the beast. I think Hebron wins 7-9 in ironic fashion,either that or they change the scoring format and win by .05 (is that correct from 2013?). Here it comes: 2016 will be the year for a new champion.

The problem is that Hebron has an expectation they need to live up to. They need to be better than they have been ever. We all know Marcus will be dominant, it's just Hebron's time to shine.

 

However in the theme of all of the Socialist stuff going around, I think they'll decide at the end of the contest that everyone should win just for participating and 10 champions will be crowned.

[Samuel Culper]

So, out of curiosity, do you give the three Leander ISD bands moving up to 6A any chance to make finals?

[principalagent]

I would personally put Leander and Vandegrift and probably Vista Ridge at better odds for finals than Haltom and potentially quite competitive towards the middle of the pack. Those programs are only getting stronger and they were all (along with Cedar Park) clearly above the rest of the pack at UIL last year. They will all make a splash. All three making finals would be a stretch, but not a *very* shocking one by any means.

 

Bowie may have a tougher year as well with director changes happening, but they could also not skip a beat.

[snares]

I would agree with principalagent, I forgot that they're all moving up. I'd definately put Vandergift in finals, along with Cedar Park. I think Leander will be a border band, the might make it in. I just think the fight for those last two spots is gonna be ridiculous

[Samuel Culper]

Cedar Park is not moving up. Leander, Vandegrift and Vista Ridge.

[natertater21000]

i'm curious to see how much focus Leander will actually put on state, they are only 6A by less then 50 people and they were not expecting to even have to attend this contest in the same week as grand nationals. A plus would be some extra practice in a dome if they make it though.

 

As far as the top 10 go i just have no idea yet, but i will make one bold prediction. Coming off of their great nationals results Hebron will finally take the 6A title from Marcus.

[snares]

I've seen videos of Leander and Vandergrift, and I think Leander is the one that will be behind the other two. Vandergrift was always a top notch dominant band in their classification. I also like Vandergrifts music (so far) a lot more than Leander's, that's just my opinion and it doesn't really mean anything. Also, very clean percussion from both groups, especially for this early in the season

[LKendrick]

I agree with the title "Way Too Early".

 

Haha, fun to speculate nonetheless.

 

I know from personal experience after getting our butts kicked early on my senior year of high school, it's all about the last few weeks of the season when you see how far you can push the show. We then did the butt kicking later on at area against bands that kinda beat us up in September/Early October.

[natertater21000]

I wouldn't count Leander out against vandegrift and especially not against vista ridge, seeing as all contests considered vandegrift has only beaten Leander once in the last two years (State last year) and vista hasn't at all. Stuff can change year to year for sure and it's way to early to tell, but based on past results i wouldn't count them out.

[Statebound]

I can see Leander and Vandegrift making finals at 6A state although I don't quite think that Vista Ridge is there yet. Music and drill are the big components at state and both of these bands can play, particularly Vandegrift.

 

My gut feeling is that this could be CTJ's big breakout year at state although my eyes and ears are telling me that Hebron should win it. CTJ's strength has always been GE while they have continued to improve musically. Hebron's strength has traditionally been their musical performance while they have improved dramatically on the GE side since their World of Wonder show a couple years ago. Music counts more at state so Early top 5 would be:

 

Hebron

CTJ

Marcus

FloMo

LD Bell - sentimental pick

[Samuel Culper]

  On 6/29/2016 at 1:12 AM, Statebound said:

I can see Leander and Vandegrift making finals at 6A state although I don't quite think that Vista Ridge is there yet. Music and drill are the big components at state and both of these bands can play, particularly Vandegrift.

 

Just to interject a little fact here:  Vista Ridge finished 2nd in Music in the Finals of last year's SMC, ahead of both Leander and Vandegrift.  I'm am not making any predictions at all about what will happen this year, just pointing out that they can absolutely "play".

[natertater21000]

i agree that vista ridge can definitely play, but that wouldn't happen to be the same judge that gave leander 8th and CP and vandy 5th and 6th would it? i think vista plays great but second at state last year...i don't know about that. 

[LHSax]

Vista's been on the heels of the other 3 for a while now, just can't seem to get over the hump. They did go through pretty much a complete overhaul of the staff (other than the head director), so we'll see what they do this year. This is always a fun group of bands to watch through out the season, and these next few years will see the addition of a likely much improved Rouse and the new school. What's obvious is that these bands continue their upward trend, now we get to see how high they can go.

[crossblue82]

I'm more interested to see what people think of Leander's chances at nationals? If you want to discuss the others going (CTJ, Bowie, Cedar Park, Reagan, and also Whitesboro) you can as well. Aside from Whitesboro I think the power 5 bands of Texas are all locks for finals. The only one I might hold on at this point would be Bowie because of uncertainties with a new director? Broken Arrow not attending anymore pretty much secures another band a finals spot as well that would not have been there. If Leander can continue the strong momentum and if The Fourth Dimension becomes an incredible show I think they are a dark horse candidate even to win the Eagle. I honestly feel like Leander, Reagan and CTJ will all be top 5-6. I am thinking those 3 with Tarpon and Avon are your 1-5, with Tarpon probably the favorite going into it. I see CP more in the 6-8 range unless they buck their trend of not quite appealing to the BOA scoring format as much as UIL. Carmel probably also in this range. The key to me will be music because I think Leander will be a GE player no doubt. They are very food musically but a great music score could mean the difference between a top 5 finish and a top 3 or even top overall finish. What are everybody's thoughts?

[principalagent]

  On 7/1/2016 at 1:42 PM, LHSax said:

a likely much improved Rouse

Jeremy Spicer left Rouse at the end of the semester, so it's likely that Rouse has some growing pains again. Not that they couldn't do well still, but they probably need more time still and the right director.

[natertater21000]

I definitely feel like Leander has the vehicle to be in the top 5 at nationals, and possibly winning. They have been preparing this show for a while shown by the fact that they already have most of the music distributed to the band. I personally really enjoy the musical score (a good marriage of the last two shows) and if the visual package is on the same par as color study then it will be a monster. Something tells me  Cedar Park is gonna surprise people too. The competitiveness between them and leander and vandegrift has pushed them passed where they were so i'm expecting big things from them.  Same goes for Reagan and CTJ, i could see either of them winning the whole thing with right show. The Texas schools being sent are all top notch this year, with maybe the exception of Bowie although i hope they pick themselves back up from the end of last year despite the director change. i'm not too familiar with whitesboro though so i can't make an educated comment on them.

[Jackson1]

Sooooo?????? UIL 6A state predictions?? Two sided coin. It woul be cool to see someone dethrone Marcus at state. I think a few bands have a shot. Hebron being the front runner but not the only one.

 

On the other side it would be cool to see Marcus win for a 6th time. Love them or hate them, they OWN Texas UIL State. Has any other band, anywhere, come close to that record?

 

Do other States have a State championship like Texas? I am not saying other states are not as good, I am asking if there has been another band in any other state as dominant in music as Marcus has been.

 

My prediction is either Hebron or Marcus takes it. Would love to see any other band take it as well.

[Xenon]

In the largest conference, Westfield did 3 consecutive over 3 years in the 80s and Spring and Westfield both did 2 consecutive over 4 years in the 90s. Marcus' 5 consecutive over 10 years is completely unprecedented.

[principalagent]

  On 7/5/2016 at 10:50 PM, Jackson1 said:

Do other States have a State championship like Texas? I am not saying other states are not as good, I am asking if there has been another band in any other state as dominant in music as Marcus has been.

 

I think the only state with a dedicated State Championship that comes close to Texas is Indiana. Avon had a streak in their highest class from 2003-2007, as well as two more wins in 2001 and 2002 in Indiana's second highest class. They've also won three in a row to this point, and I'm inclined to believe that will continue. All in, they haven't scored lower than 3rd since 2000.

 

Plymouth-Canton also had a long(er) streak of wins in MCBA if I'm not mistaken, but Michigan didn't have quite the depth to make their dominance as impressive.

[NTXBandFan]

I'm curious why Flower Mound is being written off musically compared to Hebron & Marcus.  They produced the 2nd most All-stater in 2014 & 2015 (only coppell had more), they also had the most all-area and all-region qualifiers.
Also, not that their wind symphony was very well received at the Midwest Clinic in 2015.  A good portion of this year's seniors and juniors participated in the midwest clinic twice, once in high school, and once in middle school.

Finally, their wind symphony finished in second and missed first by 1 point for the 2016 TMEA honor band.

All of that tells me Flower Mound has the musicians to compete.

Add to that 2014 was their first time ever competing at state, and they had a rough finals run with the electronics malfunction.

I think they will surprise folks.

[principalagent]

An exceptionally strong concert program doesn't automatically make for an exceptionally strong music ensemble in a marching band - with a long list of evidence to support that. Additionally, Hebron and Marcus also have quite a laundry list of accolades too from their concert program along with consistently strong music scores in the fall.

 

I don't think it's so much that FloMo is being written off compared to its sister schools, more so that they haven't scored consistently well in music to be an immediately thought of threat. Yet. I don't think many, if any, would say that they couldn't snag music captions all season.

[pokemongopractice]

While Flower Mound is a great band, we have seen in the past where both Hebron and Marcus have outscored Flower Mound in Music (tie for music caption at san antonio). To me, it seems that Flower Mound this past year seemed to start stronger than before and was able to maintain it, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened this year.

[NTXBandFan]

Keep in mind FM won the prelims music caption in San Antonio, and not that it matters as much early in the season, but they also took the Finals music caption in Arlington.

[Jackson1]

Can Flomo take state? Yes. Will it be easy? No. Marcus and Hebron are pretty dominant the last two state years. Flomo had an outstanding season last year. But Johnson, Reagan, the Woodands, Copell, Keller, Duncanville, etc also had great years. What happened last year doesn't mean anything this year.

 

I hope Flomo has another great year and it would be great to see them win state. In Texas that is a tough feat given all of the outstanding bands capable of doing great things. I still have Marcus and Hebron taking gold and silver but after witnessing the last two years nothing would surprise me.

 

The first football games are right around the corner. Looking forward to everyone's early opinions of the shows. Good luck to all bands this year!!!

 

Texas marching bands rock!!!!!

[pokemongopractice]

Has anyone heard anything concrete about FloMo, Marcus's, or Hebron's shows? I know that FloMo and Hebron both had parent performances, but I'm surprised that not many people know about their shows.