2016 6A State Predictions

[NTXBandFan]

An exceptionally strong concert program doesn't automatically make for an exceptionally strong music ensemble in a marching band - with a long list of evidence to support that. Additionally, Hebron and Marcus also have quite a laundry list of accolades too from their concert program along with consistently strong music scores in the fall.

 

I don't think it's so much that FloMo is being written off compared to its sister schools, more so that they haven't scored consistently well in music to be an immediately thought of threat. Yet. I don't think many, if any, would say that they couldn't snag music captions all season.

 

 

While Flower Mound is a great band, we have seen in the past where both Hebron and Marcus have outscored Flower Mound in Music (tie for music caption at san antonio). To me, it seems that Flower Mound this past year seemed to start stronger than before and was able to maintain it, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened this year.

 

 

Can Flomo take state? Yes. Will it be easy? No. Marcus and Hebron are pretty dominant the last two state years. Flomo had an outstanding season last year. But Johnson, Reagan, the Woodands, Copell, Keller, Duncanville, etc also had great years. What happened last year doesn't mean anything this year.

 

I hope Flomo has another great year and it would be great to see them win state. In Texas that is a tough feat given all of the outstanding bands capable of doing great things. I still have Marcus and Hebron taking gold and silver but after witnessing the last two years nothing would surprise me.

 

The first football games are right around the corner. Looking forward to everyone's early opinions of the shows. Good luck to all bands this year!!!

 

Texas marching bands rock!!!!!

So... how do you feel now?

[HUHreally]

Here are the margins a victory for the last few years at BOA Dallas:

 

2015 - .10 - Flomo

2014 - .85 - Hebron

2013 - .55 - Hebron

2012 - 1.6 - Marcus

2011 - .05 - Bowie

 

2016 - 3.85

 

No one else finds this a problem?  A band has a finished show and wins the DFW competition by almost 4 points? 

[principalagent]

I only saw the webcast but Flower Mound honestly looked *that* much ahead. And a finished show, that polished, should score 4 points ahead of the crowd - even when the crowd consists of 3 BOA GN medalists and two other finalists.

 

Flower Mound's win isn't even the most egregious this season in BOA. William Mason won Toledo with an incomplete show by almost 6 points over Plymouth Canton. To be honest, I don't find that suspect either.

[Xenon]

Also of note, while FloMo won Finals by almost 4 points above both Marcus and Hebron, in Prelims they had already beaten Marcus by nearly 4 points and Hebron by almost 5! The gap was pretty definitive, consistent, and definitely real from how I viewed it from the stands.

[Jackson1]

Flomo had the most complete show there by far. I was there and saw 3/4 of prelims and all of finals. Flomo should have won and by a large margin. I think he/she is asking how a band gets that much better over, for the most part, the same pool of bands in one year. Did the other bands all get worse? I remember thinking in Plano after prelims, in 7 years of attending the event it has never been so unclose before. Usually it is a battle of 2 or 3 bands at least. My hat is off to them for such drastic improvement over some very impressive bands. I hope they win it all this year. Must be something in the water.

[snares]

Does anyone know where the Area C competition will be? I'm finding a hard time that a non Lewisville ISD school breaks the top 3 at state this year. I think all three of the sister schools will be INCREDIBLY close. I really have no idea where each of them will end up when it comes to UIL results, and I think some people will be shocked at Area. Whether that's because Flowermound is on top, or to some people it might be shocking that they might not be on top after that thwarting at Plano. Anyways. Believe it or not, with how hard their music is and how clean they will be by the end of the season, I think this is Hebron's year. I know thats very controversial to say now, but I'm gonna go ahead and say it.

[azn]

So how do people feel now after the Texas area BOA regionals?

Eh, BOA has no correlation to UIL since they have different scoring rubric. And one emphasizes on Difficult Music, Rigorous Marching techniques, Challenging Effects and etcs. while the other has a strong emphasize on Creativity and Unique usage of Music and Effects and Marching

 

Correlation does not imply causation. Besides most of your statements don't even make much sense. And James Bowie did not miss State in 2014. In fact they were first in Area D and 2nd in state prelims (4th in finals). Regardless I do agree that anything can happen.

My statements did make sense; DCI does have a very funny correlation as what might happen in UIL/BOA, it is not an accurate correlation but it does give way to possible speculation. But really it is just pure irony/coincidental than prediction. Also, that is why i said it might not had been James Bowie. Clearly when someone says that are not sure that it did happen does not mean it is acceptable to criticize on that. 

 

I'm not gonna say anything until after all of the area competitions are over, flower mound has the coolest show, knowing hebron they will be playing rediculously articulate stuff, and Marcus will probably be the cleanest. Vandegrift the huge outlier, I have no idea where they will end up.

yeah since we have to get through area competitions and with the new massive Area Alignments it is crazy. Plus there was also Major Updates to the State Marching band contest itself, that I already have mentioned in another post. *CLICK HERE FOR THE THREAD ABOUT THE NEW UPDATE* 3 of the most prominent updates are truly remarkable and 1 of them which is separate from the 3 prominent updates was based on previous experiences. Also, one of the 3 most prominent doesn't affect the band much except on the music composing level and the other 2 have the major impact anyways. 

 

One of them is about being top 12 instead of top 10 and allowing more bands to advanced to state finals if they make 3 or higher from at least 2 music judges and 1 marching judge. So we could see from the minimum 12 bands up to say about 18 but really up to 14, but only if there are more than 36 bands competing at state. then otherwise it is only top 10, 7 , or 5 depending the amount of bands advancing to state. Another one is about having a Full Olympic Style Retreat at the State Finals award ceremony just like BOA. xD

 

Also, another important change is that 6A State Prelims and 6A State Finals are on two separate days now because of the fact that finals ending at  like 10pm or even midnight and then the bands have to quickly get them on buses and band kids don't get back until like 4-6am with as little as 2-6 hours of sleep for schools because nearly all of the school require them back in school the next day, because of the TEA attendance rules which only allows soo much excused absences for Extracurricular Activities. Hence why, UIL had to ask TEA approval and Texas Congress consent to add an additional day of excused absence.

[azn]

Does anyone know where the Area C competition will be? I'm finding a hard time that a non Lewisville ISD school breaks the top 3 at state this year. I think all three of the sister schools will be INCREDIBLY close. I really have no idea where each of them will end up when it comes to UIL results, and I think some people will be shocked at Area. Whether that's because Flowermound is on top, or to some people it might be shocking that they might not be on top after that thwarting at Plano. Anyways. Believe it or not, with how hard their music is and how clean they will be by the end of the season, I think this is Hebron's year. I know thats very controversial to say now, but I'm gonna go ahead and say it.

Area C is at Mesquite Memorial Stadium, since mesquite has not changed areas. xD 

[LKendrick]

I don't think saying Hebron or Marcus could or will win state is controversial. I think when it comes down to it those two are the powerhouses. I think we might just have a new member in the club.

 

What impressed me so much about Flower Mound last week was pretty much all performance related. The show is awesome, absolutely, but they've had pretty fantastic shows for a few years now, what is changing is they are now able to really perform those shows at the highest of levels. I think even taking away GE they will still be able to hang because they march and play that effective show SO well. It will be a ton closer in the UIL arena for sure.

 

Marcus has a show tailored to them PERFECTLY and they will sound sublime in a few weeks. Hebron has another technical marvel that will sound amazing too. I fully expect those two to be the ones to beat, as well as Flower Mound. I think some people are mistaking lack of discussion on the other two for people not thinking they have a chance. Which is not the case.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that Flower Mound is going to walk into state, get a 5 ordinal score, and no one will touch them. But, it wasn't their show design and GE doing all the work last week, the proficiency of how they delivered that was what made it special.

[Jackson1]

I only saw the webcast but Flower Mound honestly looked *that* much ahead. And a finished show, that polished, should score 4 points ahead of the crowd - even when the crowd consists of 3 BOA GN medalists and two other finalists.

Flower Mound's win isn't even the most egregious this season in BOA. William Mason won Toledo with an incomplete show by almost 6 points over Plymouth Canton. To be honest, I don't find that suspect either.

After Masons GN performance it doesn't surprise me that they won by 6. I think the difference is they beat Plymouth by 4 points last year as well and weren't competing against 3 GN medalists and two other finalist.

 

Flomo was impressive. I think the guy is just saying that's a big jump from one year to another in the DFW area. For any band. Good for them, great show.

[NTXBandFan]

Here are the margins a victory for the last few years at BOA Dallas:

 

2015 - .10 - Flomo

2014 - .85 - Hebron

2013 - .55 - Hebron

2012 - 1.6 - Marcus

2011 - .05 - Bowie

 

2016 - 3.85

 

No one else finds this a problem? A band has a finished show and wins the DFW competition by almost 4 points?

While I do find the margin to be unusual, I'm not sure what the problem you're alluding to is.

Flower Mound did have what appeared to be a finished show, but they still have more to add, I'm sure. There's no way the directors and designers would have put a completely finished product out there yet. The end game is still San Antonio (BOA &State).

Honestly, I think FM was living in Marcus' and to some level, Hebron's shadows. Once they went to Grand Nats on their own and saw what they could do against great competition they knew nothing about, the kids developed an amazing level of confidence, which translated into last year's results, and now this year's. Not only that, they are adding more complexity each year.

On top of all that I'm sure you're seeing what could be a bit of the Michael Jordan effect. They've developed a name for themselves, and the judges might give them a nudge because of it. The fans probably do the same. I'm not saying it's unwarranted, there are many programs that probably benefit from it from time to time, and now it's Flower Mound's turn.

[HUHreally]

While I do find the margin to be unusual, I'm not sure what the problem you're alluding to is.

Flower Mound did have what appeared to be a finished show, but they still have more to add, I'm sure. There's no way the directors and designers would have put a completely finished product out there yet. The end game is still San Antonio (BOA &State).

Honestly, I think FM was living in Marcus' and to some level, Hebron's shadows. Once they went to Grand Nats on their own and saw what they could do against great competition they knew nothing about, the kids developed an amazing level of confidence, which translated into last year's results, and now this year's. Not only that, they are adding more complexity each year.

On top of all that I'm sure you're seeing what could be a bit of the Michael Jordan effect. They've developed a name for themselves, and the judges might give them a nudge because of it. The fans probably do the same. I'm not saying it's unwarranted, there are many programs that probably benefit from it from time to time, and now it's Flower Mound's turn.

I would go more with a Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire analogy myself. Hypothetically bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week.  If Band Z practices 9-10 hours a week. Band Z has practiced the equivalent of about 2 more weeks then bands A-Y by October and wins a regional and eventually a super regional.  Yea band Z!

The next year, hypothetically, bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week and if band Z practices 11-12 hours a week.  By October band Z has a super regional finals worthy complete show because they are about a month ahead of the rest of the field while bands A-Y have shows that are about where they usually are in development in early October.  Band Z wins the regional by a HUGE margin over, almost, the exact same bands as the previous year.  I guess it is possible that ALL of the other bands in the area decided to not work as hard this year.  One band simply wanting it more just doesn't flush. 

 

To the old timers and statisticians out there,  Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points.  Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen. 

 

The term "even playing field" does not apply this year.  It is unfortunate that an activity as noble as marching band that shows the skills and hard work of high school kids and Directors has succumbed to the win at all costs mentality.  In the hypothetical above band Z will win San Antonio and probably State everytime because all they have left to do is add some props and polish the rest.  Bands A-Y are still building and adding.

 

In marching band there is a big difference between working harder and working longer.  Of course this is all hypothetical.......

 

Peace

[natertater21000]

Except flower mound could not have practiced more than 8 hours a week...if they are they risk being disqualified from uil.

[principalagent]

To the old timers and statisticians out there, Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points. Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen.

 

William Mason has been winning regionals in Ohio by an increasing amount of points (2-6!!) for years now against similar bands each year.

 

Yes, the gap in quality between Mason and PCEP is different than Flower Mound and Marcus, but it's still reasonable that Flower Mound can be four points ahead while practicing the same exact amount of time.

 

Unless what you're *actually* trying to suggest through your example is that a band may be breaking the Eight Hour Rule.

[whitewing09]

I would go more with a Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire analogy myself. Hypothetically bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week.  If Band Z practices 9-10 hours a week. Band Z has practiced the equivalent of about 2 more weeks then bands A-Y by October and wins a regional and eventually a super regional.  Yea band Z!

The next year, hypothetically, bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week and if band Z practices 11-12 hours a week.  By October band Z has a super regional finals worthy complete show because they are about a month ahead of the rest of the field while bands A-Y have shows that are about where they usually are in development in early October.  Band Z wins the regional by a HUGE margin over, almost, the exact same bands as the previous year.  I guess it is possible that ALL of the other bands in the area decided to not work as hard this year.  One band simply wanting it more just doesn't flush. 

 

To the old timers and statisticians out there,  Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points.  Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen. 

 

The term "even playing field" does not apply this year.  It is unfortunate that an activity as noble as marching band that shows the skills and hard work of high school kids and Directors has succumbed to the win at all costs mentality.  In the hypothetical above band Z will win San Antonio and probably State everytime because all they have left to do is add some props and polish the rest.  Bands A-Y are still building and adding.

 

In marching band there is a big difference between working harder and working longer.  Of course this is all hypothetical.......

 

Peace

 

1) Are you implying that FloMo is breaking rules? If so, can you validate that claim?

 

2) Your univariate analysis is a little lacking. Marching band, especially BOA, isn't only about hours put in. Apart from FloMo's excellent execution, their show design is amazing and probably a step ahead everyone else at the competition. It has great music and an excellent flow that just makes sense. It's also visually stunning. This is really the show of the season (and this is a season of really good shows), so it really is understandable why they would win with such a large margin. I think an excellent example of where this has happened would be BOA Atlanta 2014 where Tarpon destroyed Mason.  

[LKendrick]

So now we are implying that the only reason that Flower Mound could possibly do what they did.....is possibly cheating?

 

O.o

 

That MUST be it. Not because they have a show that is tailored perfectly to what the band can achieve, not because if you objectively watch they were way cleaner than anyone else that day (not saying it's gonna stay that way), or any other reason.

 

But because they're rehearsing more, and illegally at that. I'm sure Biskup would really appreciate that sentiment.

 

Honestly it is not about time. It's about how you use it. Texas bands get just as polished as bands out of the state at the top, does that mean they're all cheating too? No, it means that they know how to manage their time effectively.

 

Every now and then every band has that show and year where everything comes together and it's a home run. It's just their turn. Implying that is just absolutely silly.

[Danpod]

I would go more with a Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire analogy myself. Hypothetically bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week.  If Band Z practices 9-10 hours a week. Band Z has practiced the equivalent of about 2 more weeks then bands A-Y by October and wins a regional and eventually a super regional.  Yea band Z!

The next year, hypothetically, bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week and if band Z practices 11-12 hours a week.  By October band Z has a super regional finals worthy complete show because they are about a month ahead of the rest of the field while bands A-Y have shows that are about where they usually are in development in early October.  Band Z wins the regional by a HUGE margin over, almost, the exact same bands as the previous year.  I guess it is possible that ALL of the other bands in the area decided to not work as hard this year.  One band simply wanting it more just doesn't flush. 

 

To the old timers and statisticians out there,  Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points.  Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen. 

 

The term "even playing field" does not apply this year.  It is unfortunate that an activity as noble as marching band that shows the skills and hard work of high school kids and Directors has succumbed to the win at all costs mentality.  In the hypothetical above band Z will win San Antonio and probably State everytime because all they have left to do is add some props and polish the rest.  Bands A-Y are still building and adding.

 

In marching band there is a big difference between working harder and working longer.  Of course this is all hypothetical.......

 

Peace

 

Sounds like either sour grapes or you know something that us "sheeple" are totally in the dark about.  You have evidence to back up your ellipses at the end, right?  Go ahead.  I'll wait.  I have spare time.

 

In 2000, L.D. Bell won the San Antonio Regional on October 7th by six points.  I sat in my sweaty band uniform and watched that performance.  No one questioned whether they were breaking the rules.  We saw the product and our heads exploded.  We wanted to achieve that level of performance.  But hey, you are putting out cryptic posts like you're running for President so we should absolutely be paying attention to you.  Nah.  I'm fine, but thank you though.   

 

If your objective was to get troll, congratulations.  You have succeeded.  Back to my Little Caesars.

 

I look forward to seeing everyone again at State on the Live Blog!   

[NTXBandFan]

I would go more with a Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire analogy myself. Hypothetically bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week. If Band Z practices 9-10 hours a week. Band Z has practiced the equivalent of about 2 more weeks then bands A-Y by October and wins a regional and eventually a super regional. Yea band Z!

The next year, hypothetically, bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week and if band Z practices 11-12 hours a week. By October band Z has a super regional finals worthy complete show because they are about a month ahead of the rest of the field while bands A-Y have shows that are about where they usually are in development in early October. Band Z wins the regional by a HUGE margin over, almost, the exact same bands as the previous year. I guess it is possible that ALL of the other bands in the area decided to not work as hard this year. One band simply wanting it more just doesn't flush.

 

To the old timers and statisticians out there, Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points. Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen.

 

The term "even playing field" does not apply this year. It is unfortunate that an activity as noble as marching band that shows the skills and hard work of high school kids and Directors has succumbed to the win at all costs mentality. In the hypothetical above band Z will win San Antonio and probably State everytime because all they have left to do is add some props and polish the rest. Bands A-Y are still building and adding.

 

In marching band there is a big difference between working harder and working longer. Of course this is all hypothetical.......

 

Peace

I'm disappointed that you alluded to unscrupulous actions taking place. I can attest that the FM directors are following the rules and are very strict about their practice time. They don't even work on the show parts until band camp starts in August. When band camp rolls around they really put a lot of the work in. That's when UIL has no limit on hours.

I think the program has risen because it keeps building its foundation.

1)the district strongly supports the arts

2)the feeder schools have excellent band programs

3)much like sports teams, a band program can build on the previous year's experience. If you watch the last few years, they've been playing more and more complex music, faster marching, more complex marching, louder sound, and great show design

4)they have a JV band that learns a basic show that they perform before the competitions begin. This teaches marching skills to the kids who didn't make the competition band.

5)finally, the school is on a block system where they only have 4 classes per semester. This in effect gives them a year's worth of class time in 1 semester. As a result, a graduating senior will have the equivalent of 8 years of band classroom hours.

[FloMoParent]

To even imply that a band is cheating, without proof, is a very sad thing.  I am fairly certain that FMHS and MHS are following nearly the identical schedule (I have friends with kids in each band, they have the same routine).

 

Band directors have a challenge with performers and that is to keep pushing the students without burning them out or letting them back off too much.  Like a sports team sometimes they take the playbook, digest it, then perform it all at a high level very quickly.  Other times it takes longer to get concepts or themes across.   When it clicks it is a beautiful thing. 

[mamaband]

To even imply that a band is cheating, without proof, is a very sad thing.  I am fairly certain that FMHS and MHS are following nearly the identical schedule (I have friends with kids in each band, they have the same routine).

 

Band directors have a challenge with performers and that is to keep pushing the students without burning them out or letting them back off too much.  Like a sports team sometimes they take the playbook, digest it, then perform it all at a high level very quickly.  Other times it takes longer to get concepts or themes across.   When it clicks it is a beautiful thing. 

 

It is very sad indeed. They have a great show and they should be applauded for all their hard work getting to this level.

[snares]

They only possible way I can see them going over the 8 hour rule is "sectionals", but those don't count unless they are mandatory or with a director. I thing the BOA results are a lot of Flomos design, but I think they were just good, first if that makes any hoowie of sense. Certainly Marcus and Hebron will catch up on a BOA stand point, not sure about UIL because it's completely different and I don't know if Flomo is even ahead according to UILs standings. And just to back up the "8 years of band" that Flowermound gets in their school schedule stated earlier, all LISD schools go through that schedule, so the gap won't be because of the class periods. I think this is literally just a matter of how fast each group got good at what they do, and Flowermound is ahead as of two weeks ago.

[FloMoParent]

Have you ever been presented with what you originally thought was a difficult challenge but for some reason it just clicked with you and you mastered it rather quickly?  I am sure a lot of that goes into each and every season for all the bands.

[mamaband]

Have you ever been presented with what you originally thought was a difficult challenge but for some reason it just clicked with you and you mastered it rather quickly?  I am sure a lot of that goes into each and every season for all the bands.

I think their show is a wonderful extravaganza and a celebration of hard work and artistry. I also think there are other shows (maybe not as "showy" but still outstanding music and clean marching) that will do very well at UIL. Flo Mo's show is made for BOA (my opinion, and I could be totally wrong). Not to say that their music and marching is also not right up there with the best, but the GE factor, that clearly is a big part of their show, will not be a factor in the UIL competition. Very exciting year, in any case. Lot of great shows to watch.

[mamaband]

I'm curious why Flower Mound is being written off musically compared to Hebron & Marcus.  They produced the 2nd most All-stater in 2014 & 2015 (only coppell had more), they also had the most all-area and all-region qualifiers.

Also, not that their wind symphony was very well received at the Midwest Clinic in 2015.  A good portion of this year's seniors and juniors participated in the midwest clinic twice, once in high school, and once in middle school.

Finally, their wind symphony finished in second and missed first by 1 point for the 2016 TMEA honor band.

 

All of that tells me Flower Mound has the musicians to compete.

 

Add to that 2014 was their first time ever competing at state, and they had a rough finals run with the electronics malfunction.

 

I think they will surprise folks.

It seems that Coppell a powerhouse when it comes to All Staters. They have consistently had the most in the State, the past few years at least. In 2015, they had 19! And that was not a fluke either- the year before they had 17. No wonder they sound so great in competition. Great music ability from that group of kids. 

[NTXBandFan]

This is something interesting I found about Flower Mound:

https://twitter.com/fmhssaxophones/status/730934719009820672

They had a rehearsal in may of 2016? I understand that 10 hours are provided for rehearsal before the end of July but this early?

https://twitter.com/fmhssaxophones/status/601926794451628032

This is from 2015. A stadium rehearsal with instruments before the school year is over?

I'm sure they don't cheat, but this rose my eyebrows.

That's the movement camp, where they teach the incoming freshmen marching fundamentals, and it serves as a refresher for the existing students.

In any case, it can qualify under a couple of categories.  School year practice, that still is less than 8 hrs./ week, and auxillary camp.

Neither of which apply to summer practice rules, and since they aren't learning anything about the show, it doesn't violate the pre-Aug1 rules.