2016 6A State Predictions

[natertater21000]

Leander does this too^ just indoors.

[bandobando]

In response to these "controversial" posts about Flower Mound. I can guarantee you 100% that FMHS follows the 8-hour rule. Do people really think they would risk the consequences? Furthermore, as NTXBandFan stated, the band simply learns/reviews fundamental marching in May to get them ready for marching season. It's a good time to start learning because it gives the band members a basic understanding of the activity before summer (when so many people are out of town). And they don't start learning drill until several days after August 1. (Keep in mind they have a competition band and a JV band. Summer rehearsals and the first few days of band camp are used to sort through band members and assign them to a specific marching band. It would be impossible to learn drill with more band members than drill spots in the competition band.)

 

Flower Mound's rehearsal schedule has been nearly identical the past >4 years. If they were "cheating" the UIL standards, it would've been uncovered by now. Nothing is different this year other than the fact that everything aligned for an incredible show perfected by a hardworking staff and performed by extremely dedicated students.

 

Other bands are doing wonderfully. But there is no denying the fact that Flower Mound just has an amazing show completely suited for them. And frankly, this isn't that much of a surprise; FM has been building its reputation and performance ability throughout its last 5 or so seasons. You can see their development in the competition results, especially since 2014 when they went to Grand Nats.

 

Flower Mound puts in the same amount of time as Hebron, Marcus, etc. There is literally no question. They're just an awesome band surrounded by other awesome bands. Don't discredit their success, especially on the basis of very little evidence!

[TrumpetorHorn]

I was enjoying these posts until the Barry Bonds comment.  Really?  Wasn't there a lot of flack a few years ago about this too when Marcus was winning?  So I guess if you are good or get good you MUST be cheating!  No way around it.  That's the only possible explanation!  (insert sarcasm button!)  Flower Mound's show was outstanding and I venture to say it will only get better.  I doubt if they have cancelled their rehearsals based on one band competition. 

 

Barry Bonds/Mark Maguire??  SMH!

[Hard Core Band Fan]

I would go more with a Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire analogy myself. Hypothetically bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week.  If Band Z practices 9-10 hours a week. Band Z has practiced the equivalent of about 2 more weeks then bands A-Y by October and wins a regional and eventually a super regional.  Yea band Z!

The next year, hypothetically, bands A-Y practice 8 hours a week and if band Z practices 11-12 hours a week.  By October band Z has a super regional finals worthy complete show because they are about a month ahead of the rest of the field while bands A-Y have shows that are about where they usually are in development in early October.  Band Z wins the regional by a HUGE margin over, almost, the exact same bands as the previous year.  I guess it is possible that ALL of the other bands in the area decided to not work as hard this year.  One band simply wanting it more just doesn't flush. 

 

To the old timers and statisticians out there,  Find a regional in any state and any year where a band has won one year and then came back the next year and wins a second time against the same bands by a margin of 4 points.  Here is a hint...You won't find it because its never happened and shouldn't happen. 

 

The term "even playing field" does not apply this year.  It is unfortunate that an activity as noble as marching band that shows the skills and hard work of high school kids and Directors has succumbed to the win at all costs mentality.  In the hypothetical above band Z will win San Antonio and probably State everytime because all they have left to do is add some props and polish the rest.  Bands A-Y are still building and adding.

 

In marching band there is a big difference between working harder and working longer.  Of course this is all hypothetical.......

 

Peace

 

What we have here is merely an exhibition of ignorance. Armed with nothing more than opinions and accusations, this individual claims that people he doesn't know are apparently cheating in an activity he knows nothing about. He provides no facts or specific examples and makes disparaging statements about a program of dedicated staff and students that have pushed themselves to a level of excellence that is absolutely admirable and just plain amazing. Sounds to me that this is more sour grapes than anything else. Perhaps he is associated with a competing band that just hasn't attained the level of excellence that Flower Mound has this year and he is lashing out at them instead of facing the truth. If you have ever met any of the students or the directors at Flower Mound, you would know that these people are just good, hardworking individuals that are maximizing their potential and they should be praised and applauded. There really is no need for suggesting that they are doing anything more than giving it 100%. It is human nature to be envious or jealous when others have great achievement and success for a very brief period, but it is entirely something else to lash out in an accusatory fashion. Besides, no amount of time spent doing something poorly will ever make the accumulated efforts successful. I think it is much more likely that their efficiency, focus, and dedication have produced an extraordinary result this year and that it is well within the confines of what is allowed regarding the 8-hour rule.

[Mash]

As a parent of a Senior at Vista I can say that they along with every other high tier school are practicing as hard as they can every day.  My daughter has blisters every day from all the practice.  No Vista is probably the smallest 6A school so they have to compete with schools with a bigger pool of band students because of just the population of the school.  The points about the support of the school district and the quality of the feeder schools is dead on.   I certainly don't see how my daughter could handle more practice hours.  She is already up to 1am everynight with all her AP and early start college courses.   Band is awesome but not 99% of the future of the kids.

 

The other issue for these shows is economics, we can see it even in our district that schools with parents of deeper pockets don't need to think about fund raising and can have more elaborate props and support.  That is a district advantage for sure, it isn't anything that can be solved but if you look at the amount of money that Vandegrift raises each year vs. Leander each year, Leander impresses me more.   Life isn't fair, it just isn't.  It costs a lot of money to run a good band program and I can only imagine what schools in poor areas have to do to even have a band program.   I don't know much about the Flower Mound area but I do know they are a huge school with multiple marching bands.

[vincentlee1220]

Any decent band program always starts visual and music training camps the May before the summer to get people back into the marching groove/ease beginners into it.

Trying to suggest cheating through two vague tweets is a big stretch (what kind of "rehearsal" are they talking about?)

 

One thing that effective programs do very well is manage their rehearsal time. An effective program and leadership can get thrice the amount of work done as a less effective program withint the same time bounds. Given that, I see no reason why they need to use extra time outside of what the rules permit.

[snares]

Lewisville ISD sweep, Vandy fourth, CTJ 5th

[Xenon]

Lewisville ISD sweep, Vandy fourth, CTJ 5th

CTJ has chosen not to attend 6A State this year.

[mamaband]

About 2.5 weeks away. Not too early now. Let's have those predictions. Here are mine. Is it top 12 or top 10 that make finals? I forget. In any case, here are my top 12

 

1-3 Flower Mound/Marcus/Hebron

 

4-6 Vandergrift//Bell/Reagan

 

7-9 Bowie/Woodlands//Keller

 

10-12 Coppell/Duncanville/Haltom

[natertater21000]

I'd have leander and vista in over coppell, Haltom, and duncanville at least.

[natertater21000]

Haltom*

[LKendrick]

I think it's important to think about how we represent our schools when posting on here, on one person a program isn't made but that's all it takes for some people.  

 

Just some food for thought.  

[principalagent]

I'll second LKendrick. Some programs (Marcus and the Woodlands stand out) have well established and even harsh rules on social media and forum posting for good reason. Even things that seem harmless can be misconstrued and directors and show designers and drill writers 1) do look at this forum or 2) can easily be sent a link or a screenshot. I'm a few years removed from my program but I still shy away from saying critical or negative things about other programs here simply because I don't want it to reflect poorly on their success, should someone discover and make a link to my alma mater.

[mamaband]

I'd have leander and vista in over coppell, Haltom, and duncanville at least.

I forgot about Leander and Vista. So many great bands, it is hard to keep up

[snares]

I would like to bring this up because I think it'll help some people who don't understand it yet.

You shouldn't publicly say anything about any other program UNLESS it is positive. You, as an individual, wear a name that isn't yours when you walk around. You walk around with your School, and all of it's past years of success and failures and attitudes attached to that. So when you post something about another school, especially one that is so close and competitive as Flomo Marcus and Hebron are, you ruin that reputation that your school has built for so long. All of the sudden, because of what you as an individual said, you put an image on the rest of the thousands of kids that have worn the same uniform as you. So please don't be that person. Only post positive things. I saw that the post was changed to an apology, so I'm glad that he or she retracted their statements, which is good. I'm sure it's just frustrating to have another person running right next to them.

 

Moving on, this is an amazing activity because there aren't really underdogs. I know there are schools that are less successful and so on and so forth, but what's great about marching band is that you are placed based on what you put out there. No one else can affect your scores. Reagan can't affect CTJ or Flomo's scores. You can only push yourself and make yourself and your band better. So don't get caught up in what another band IS or ISN'T doing, because you can't do anything about it. You can't make them do worse, you can only do better. So instead of focussing so much on another school, focus on yourself.

 

I lived in an era where my school was one of a few extremely dominant schools at the time, there were always some exceptions but just hear me out. Reagan, Bell, and the Woodlands (Also Winston Churchill so four schools I don't know why I said three, in fact I should be saying 300 because that's what it always felt like) we were always insanely close. It was incredibly frustrating to lose to one of those schools, especially when I thought we were better than them. So I understand the frustration. Just use it to motivate yourself, not to post on the World-Wide web to see it.

[dylan123]

is there a full band retreat this year?

[Xenon]

is there a full band retreat this year?

Yes! For the first time ever, UIL State 4A and 6A will have Full Retreats after Finals!

[principalagent]

Yes, there will be.

 

Edit: oops, didn't see Xenon's reply!

[dylan123]

wasn't sure which forum to post this on but since it's pretty much about state i guess.. is there gonna be a live stream from any of the area contests this weekend?

[bandit]

Based on today's Area results- these are my picks for top 12 at State 

 

 

Hebron

Flower Mound

Marcus

Vandergrift

Leander

Reagan

Keller

Duncanville

Bowie

Coppell

Bell

Round Rock

[takigan]

Moved to Upcoming Contests and renamed, since this has sort of become the de facto "State" thread.

[snares]

Looking back at the predictions I made in June, I'm almost laughing at loud at how far off I was. I couldn't have been more wrong. I got a few things right but I was WAY off. So I'm gonna shoot for this one last time in hopes that I can be a little more accurate. And now that I'm saying this I'm realizing that it won't be any more accurate because after the top six-ish I have no idea where it'll go.

 

Bubble Bands (11th-17th)

In order of my opinion

Duncanville (in for finals)

Woodlands (most likely in finals)

LD Bell (close call)

North Shore (close call)

Coppell (close call)

Vista Ridge (close call)

SFA (bubble)

TWCP (bubble)

 

7th-10th

Keller (probably too high up, 9th or 10th is probably more accurate but they could get 7th)

Round Rock

Leander

Berkner

 

5th and 6th

Bowie

Vandegrift

 

3rd and 4th

Marcus

Ronald Reagan

 

1st-2nd (only one that I don't have an order for)

Flowermound

Hebron

 

A few thoughts:

I have no idea what to think about 10-17, so don't ask. That's some crazy competition right there.

I am expecting The Woodlands to be higher in finals they just haven't quite blossomed yet. I don't think they're as strong as they were in the past years but their show is definitely one of my favorites. Ballad is a must see.

Duncanville is doing really well this year, I can't see them outside finals. I really think Bell could push for that last spot but it will be insanely close.

 

I'm not quite sure about Leander being that far down, but I just feel like Keller and Round Rock are about to make an insurgence. I think Keller might be the band to be watching in the next three to four years. I don't think Berkner can get any higher, but with that being said, they are darn incredible this year, best I've seen from them.

 

Bowie might push for 3/4 but I do think Reagan will be in the top four (thank goodness they're back!) I really adore vandegrifts show this year, if they can clean it they can also push for a higher placing. It's also possible that Vandy and Leander are closer than I have them in the rankings. I just would hate for Bowie to take fourth and miss out on the medals for the third straight state competition.

 

I'm starting to think that Marcus might be left alone in third, they might be able to squeeze in to the top three but I think any direction that they're gonna go is down one spot or up one. I'll have a better guess on where they are after I see their football game this Friday and I'll be getting to SA right when they perform. I will say that their drumline was probably the cleanest at the area competition, Hebron and Byron Nelson were probably the clear cut top three drum lines (Byron Nelson has John Horn's previous percussion director).

 

Here's where it gets sticky.

Hebron and Flomo are interchangeable apparently. They tied in prelims, and the scores in finals were really REALLY close. It looked like they were really really really close in finals and the judges just swayed towards flomo. Very impressed that Flowermound took four 1s in Finals but Hebron was right stinking there with them. I think marcus has a shot at cleaning up and getting in but it's looking like we have a clear cut 1/2 punch

[jmfeldman]

"Bubble Bands (11th-17th)

In order of my opinion

Duncanville (in for finals)

Woodlands (most likely in finals)

LD Bell (close call)

North Shore (close call)

Coppell (close call)

Vista Ridge (close call)

SFA (bubble)

TWCP (bubble)

 

7th-10th

Keller (probably too high up, 9th or 10th is probably more accurate but they could get 7th)

Round Rock

Leander

Berkner

 

5th and 6th

Bowie

Vandegrift

 

3rd and 4th

Marcus

Ronald Reagan

 

1st-2nd (only one that I don't have an order for)

Flowermound

Hebron"

 

What do you think about Westlake? They beat out Vista Ridge at Area.

[A Testing Trumpet]

these are your 2016 UIL State marching contest bands...

 

Participating Bands

Permian HS

Coronado HS

Franklin HS

Americas HS

Keller HS

Duncanville  HS

L.D. Bell HS

Coppell HS

Plano East HS

Flower Mound HS

Hebron HS

Marcus HS

Berkner HS

Wylie HS

Ronald Reagan HS

Bowie HS

Round Rock HS

Hendrickson HS

Cedar Ridge HS

Austin HS

Cy-Fair HS

Brazoswood HS

Friendswood HS

Clements HS

Clear Brook HS

Langham Creek HS

Cypress Falls HS

North Shore Sr HS

Spring HS

The Woodlands College Park HS

The Woodlands HS

Dawson HS

Harlingen HS

Brownsville Hanna HS

Laredo United HS

Harlingen South HS

Vandegrift HS

Leander HS

Westlake HS

Vista Ridge HS

--------------------------------------

[snares]

Wow I forgot about west lake,100% my fault. Westland is, if I'm honest, a lot better than I thought they would be. That isn't a discount to them at all, considering they beat one of the better 6A bands in this state in Vista. For them I would just like to see them clean up, I think they need to be cleaner if they want to be in the finals conversation next week. If they make it into finals, which I think they have a decent shot of, expect them anywhere from 10-12