Area D Predictions?

[talkorpi]

Since most of the early BOA events and other large contests have wrapped up, which bands do you think have the potential do make area finals / advance to state in the state's hardest area?

[talkorpi]

Bumpity Bump?

[Nny14]

Without trying to be biased towards my alma mater, I think Round Rock will advance to state. They have a very good ensemble sound compared to recent years and visual looks a lot cleaner than it did in 2014. They also just added more show and I was impressed how good it sounded already.

[talkorpi]

I definitely think Round Rock will make state, but I'm not sure of bands in the new area after the rezoning. Could somebody list off some of the strong bands in the area?

[principalagent]

No big changes except for Westlake, Leander ISD, and Judson out.

[talkorpi]

This is tricky, these bands are all really good.

 

Locks for State:

Reagan

Claudia Taylor Johnson

Round Rock

Bowie

 

Upper Bubble:

Hendrickson

New Braunfels

Churchill

Westwood

Cedar Ridge

 

Lower Bubble / Wildcards:

Anderson

Hays

Pflugerville

Canyon

[HighSchoolBandNerd212]

  On 10/10/2016 at 4:25 AM, talkorpi said:

Wildcards for Finals (no order again):

 

Lake Travis

 

Lake Travis also got moved out to Area H along with Westlake, Judson, and the Leander ISD schools.

[Hard Core Band Fan]

  On 10/10/2016 at 4:25 AM, talkorpi said:

This is tricky, these bands are all really good.

 

Locks for State (no particular order):

 

Reagan

CTJ

Round Rock

 

Upper Bubble (no order again)

Bowie

Hendrickson

Westwood

 

Lower Bubble (no order again):

Churchill

New Braunfels

Cedar Ridge

Anderson

 

Wildcards for Finals (no order again):

Hays

Pflugerville

Lake Travis

 

Bowie has made the state finals every time since 2004, so I would move them to the locks category. I would really like to see Round Rock make it to state this year, but they haven't made it there since 2010 and that was the prelims. In fact, they didn't make the Area D finals in 2012 and missed the state cut in Area D finals by one place in 2014. I think they will make it this year.

[talkorpi]

  On 10/11/2016 at 1:02 AM, Hard Core Band Fan said:

Bowie has made the state finals every time since 2004, so I would move them to the locks category. I would really like to see Round Rock make it to state this year, but they haven't made it there since 2010 and that was the prelims. In fact, they didn't make the Area D finals in 2012 and missed the state cut in Area D finals by one place in 2014. I think they will make it this year.

I agree with Bowie, I meant to put them in locks. If Bowie moves up to locks then I would move New Braunfels and Churchill into the Upper Bubble, both of those bands are having incredibly strong seasons. This is going to be a real fight for the last two spots.

[bandperson1997]

Here are my predictions for finalists:

Locks (No order):

Bowie (Looking good this year! Although with all the band directors leaving, they could not get first like in 2014. Also, every year there is one crazy judge that gives them 13th place or something but could it drag them down beneath the cutoff?)

Reagan (A strong contender for taking the gold at state finals, grand nationals, let along area finals.)

CTJ (Always great, and this year is not an exception.)

Cedar Ridge (Didn't do so great at State prelims last year, and also got 10th at BOA Austin. But with their grand national finals past and area judges always loving what Cedar Ridge put's on, I have them as a lock)

 

Upper Bubble (In somewhat of an order):

Round Rock (Really should be a lock, but Area judges seem to hate them)

Hendrickson (Went from 1st in prelims in 2014 to tying for 9th in finals. Really got ripped off)

Churchill (Didn't make finals in 2014, but has made some vast improvements since then)

Anderson (Pretty good this year, Anderson is often a wild card, while almost making state in 2014 but not even making finals in 2012)

Westwood (Music is top notch and, musically, could be ranked top 5. Visuals/drill is lacking through [at least at BOA Austin])

 

Fighting for the last spot (In somewhat of an order):

Pflugerville (I love Pflugerville this year! Beat Churchill in 2014 to take the last spot in finals, and could do it again (But beating out another band)

Lehman (Such pretty music. Lehman got 2's at UIL Region last year, but have drastically improved)

Hays (Always has been a dark horse for finals, could this be the year?)

Canyon/New Braunfels (Could be an underdog for finals)

 

Haven't really heard of New Braunfels's year, but I don't think they have ever made Area D finals, let alone beat any of my lock/bubble bands. Could be wrong, though. 

 

Edited to take out Lake Travis since they are not in Area D

[bandperson1997]

We won't know how many will advance until after region results, right?

[Samuel Culper]

Lake Travis is not in Area D.

[Shadow Weaver]

New Braunfels hasn't generally beat any of the band's on that list with the exception of Hays, Canyon, and Lehman. Their only BOA finals appearance was in 1998, though they did appear at 4A State and Finals a couple of times in the early to mid-2000's. I think their best showing at Area D was in 2008 where they placed 11th just shy of Finals. Needless to say, they would be a surprise group should they advance this year, though they are performing at a higher level this year than years past.

 

  On 10/11/2016 at 6:06 PM, bandperson1997 said:

Here are my predictions for finalists:

Locks (No order):

Bowie (Looking good this year! Although with all the band directors leaving, they could not get first like in 2014. Also, every year there is one crazy judge that gives them 13th place or something but could it drag them down beneath the cutoff?)

Reagan (A strong contender for taking the gold at state finals, grand nationals, let along area finals.)

CTJ (Always great, and this year is not an exception.)

Cedar Ridge (Didn't do so great at State prelims last year, and also got 10th at BOA Austin. But with their grand national finals past and area judges always loving what Cedar Ridge put's on, I have them as a lock)

 

Upper Bubble (In somewhat of an order):

Round Rock (Really should be a lock, but Area judges seem to hate them)

Hendrickson (Went from 1st in prelims in 2014 to tying for 9th in finals. Really got ripped off)

Churchill (Didn't make finals in 2014, but has made some vast improvements since then)

Anderson (Pretty good this year, Anderson is often a wild card, while almost making state in 2014 but not even making finals in 2012)

Westwood (Music is top notch and, musically, could be ranked top 5. Visuals/drill is lacking through [at least at BOA Austin])

 

Fighting for the last spot (In somewhat of an order):

Pflugerville (I love Pflugerville this year! Beat Churchill in 2014 to take the last spot in finals, and could do it again (But beating out another band)

Lehman (Such pretty music. Lehman got 2's at UIL Region last year, but have drastically improved)

Hays (Always has been a dark horse for finals, could this be the year?)

Canyon/New Braunfels (Could be an underdog for finals)

 

Haven't really heard of New Braunfels's year, but I don't think they have ever made Area D finals, let alone beat any of my lock/bubble bands. Could be wrong, though.

 

Edited to take out Lake Travis since they are not in Area D

[A Testing Trumpet]

UIL Area D is made up of 4 regions; 26, 18, 12, and 8. That comprises these 6A Schools:

 

REGION 26--6A

MANOR HS, HENDRICKSON HS, PFLUGERVILLE HS, WESTWOOD HS, STONY POINT HS, CEDAR RIDGE HS, ROUND ROCK HS, MCNEIL HS

 

REGION 18--6A

ANDERSON HS, JAMES BOWIE HS, AKINS HS, DEL VALLE HS, LEHMAN HS, HAYS HS

 

REGION 12--6A

CANYON HS, SMITHSON VALLEYHS, NEW BRAUNFELS HS, CLUADIA TAYLOR JOHNSON HS, RONALD REAGAN HS, JAMES MADISON

HS, WINSTON CHURCHILL HS, MACARTHUR HS, ROOSEVELT HS, LEE HS, SAN MARCOS HS

 

REGION 8--6A

BELTON HS, COPPERAS COVE HS, SHOEMAKER HS, ELLISON HS, KILLEEN HS, HARKER HEIGHTS HS, MIDWAY HS

 

According to U.I.L. Rules; Area Contests get to advance 1 band to State for every 5 bands that qualify for Area from region. 

 

[A Testing Trumpet]

"5A/6A Certification. In Conferences 5A/6A the music area shall certify the two bands receiving the highest ranking in each conference to the State Marching Band Contest. Should fifteen or more bands qualify for advancement in a single conference for the area contest, one band for each five bands that qualifed for advancement to the contest shall be certified for advancement to the state contest"

So that means 2 bands will automatically advance to State, up to 15 bands,and with each additional 5 bands past 15 yielding 1 extra advancing band. Area D has 32 bands in it, meaning...

2-19 bands receiving a 1= 2 advancers

20-24 bands receiving a 1 = 3 advancers

25-29 bands receiving a 1 = 4 advancers

30-32 bands receiving a 1 = 5 advancers

[principalagent]

It's definitely 1 per 5 starting at 15. That rule isn't written well, but Area D will have a maximum of six advancers. Note where it says should 15 or more qualify, then the 1 per 5 rule kicks in.

[Hard Core Band Fan]

Here's how I understand the advancing rules:

 

1) By default, the top 2 bands advance to State regardless of the number of bands.
2) With 15 or more bands at Area, 1 band for each 5 bands qualifying for Area will advance (15-19=3, 20-24=4, 25-29=5, 30-34=6, 35-39=7).
3) In Areas advancing 2 bands, any band ranking 2nd or higher from 2 Music judges & 1 Marching judge will advance to state.
4) In Areas advancing 3 or more bands, any band ranking 3rd or higher from 2 Music judges & 1 Marching judge will advance to state.

 

Area D has 33 6A Bands, so the maximum they could have would be 6 advancing to state. Looking at the past 6 years or so, it is highly unlikely that there will be 30 bands that qualify and attend area, making it most likely that they will have 5 bands advancing.

[A Testing Trumpet]

My prediction of finals...

1.RONALD REAGAN HS

2.CLAUDIA TAYLOR JOHNSON HS

3.JAMES BOWIE HS_______15-19 Band Cutoff

4.ROUND ROCK HS________20-24 Band Cutoff

5.HENDRICKSON HS_______25-29 Band Cutoff

6.CEDAR RIDGE HS________30-32 Band cutoff

7.WINSTON CHURCHILL HS

8.WESTWOOD HS

9.ANDERSON HS

10.NEW BRAUNFELS HS

-

11.PFLUGERVILLE HS

12.STONY POINT HS

[principalagent]

It actually seems that CTJ is only performing in Area Prelims according to their website. So that opens up one more spot to advance and in finals. Haven't seen anything conclusive about Reagan following suit.

[RenMacnary]

Wow, that's news.  Looking at Reagan's site, you could see why.....

 

• Nov 4 – 5, 2016  –   Times TBD – Bands of American Super Regional San Antonio – Alamodome, Tickets
• Nov 8 – 9, 2016  –  Times TBD – UIL State Marching Contest –Alamodome
• Nov 10-12, 2016  –  Times TBD – Bands of America Grand Nationals – Lucas Oil Stadium 

With travel that's a LOT of school to miss!

[Xenon]

On Friday, CTJ and Reagan go on at 5:00 and 5:30 respectively, so that may only be the last class of the day missed.

 

Tuesday, how much school is missed depends on the Prelims slot.

 

Wednesday, Definitely missing school assuming in State Finals.

 

Probably missing all of Thursday and Friday.

 

 

The question is why would one NEISD school choose to do skip State when the other isn't. The fact that Reagan is willing to do this schedule means that concerns of missing school didn't come from the school board.

[akinez]

  On 10/20/2016 at 5:37 PM, principalagent said:

It actually seems that CTJ is only performing in Area Prelims according to their website. So that opens up one more spot to advance and in finals. Haven't seen anything conclusive about Reagan following suit.

 

Yes. This is true.

[jmj]

I am confused. What even is the point of performing in Area prelims, then, if no intention to go to finals, assuming their likely high rank after prelims?

[Hard Core Band Fan]

  On 10/22/2016 at 3:13 AM, jmj said:

I am confused. What even is the point of performing in Area prelims, then, if no intention to go to finals, assuming their likely high rank after prelims?

Probably to get in another competition performance and get the judge's feedback.

[talkorpi]

All 6A bands in Region 12 advanced except for San Marcos.