2017 BOA San Antonio Super Regionals Predictions

[Astros]

 

I can taste the BBQ already!!!!!! Take me home to San Antonio!!!!!!

In N Out !!!

[Danpod]

In N Out !!!

 

Whataburger.  I will leave this argument alone because I don't want to burn things.

[MadisonBandMan1]

Whataburger. I will leave this argument alone because I don't want to burn things.

What a burger? Lol

[LKendrick]

Whataburger. I will leave this argument alone because I don't want to burn things.

I’m not so easily deferred.

 

:z

[LostChoirGuy]

I have now submitted my predictions for this competition. In addition to sharing them here, I want to share my entire choices for top 30 since in my opinion the 15-30 places are a lot less clear than the likely finals candidates. Even choosing 30 was hard here though, because there were a good dozen+ other bands that I could see being competitive.

 

1. Flower Mound

2. Claudia Taylor Johnson

3. Hebron

4. Avon

5. The Woodlands

6. Marcus

7. Vandegrift

8. Ronald Reagan

9. Leander

10. L.D. Bell

11. James Bowie

12. Round Rock

13. Keller

14. Hendrickson

-------------

15. Cedar Park

16. Winston Churchill

17. Cedar Ridge

18. Vista Ridge

19. Wakeland

20. Cy- Fair

21. Coppell

22. Keller Central

23. Pearland

24. Clear Brook

25. Timber Creek

26. James Martin

27. Westwood

28. Wylie

29. Friendswood

30. Seven Lakes

 

Also, I can't believe that I am predicting Cedar Park out of finals. I honestly just cant see that happening, but dont know what to change. I also am very impressed with the improvement that Churchill has made.

[bandologist]

Here's an interesting question- captions. As if deciding who the 14 finalists isn't hard enough, who do you guys think will earn captions?

 

I personally like Avon's band 'sound' not so much for the GE but because its so incredibly clean. Hebron comes very close but they arent quite as balanced overall, although they are just as clean. I'd give Avon music.

Visual is tough, because both Flower Mound and Johnson have put out incredible visual packages this year that are very clean throughout the show. I'd give it to Johnson, because they are extremely consistent with high placing visuals.

And GE!!! In my opinion Avon's show isn't very moving. Vandergrift puts out a beautiful design thats quite appealing, but so does FloMo. I think Flomo takes the GE for the win at this competition

[Danpod]

Here's an interesting question- captions. As if deciding who the 14 finalists isn't hard enough, who do you guys think will earn captions?

 

I personally like Avon's band 'sound' not so much for the GE but because its so incredibly clean. Hebron comes very close but they arent quite as balanced overall, although they are just as clean. I'd give Avon music.

Visual is tough, because both Flower Mound and Johnson have put out incredible visual packages this year that are very clean throughout the show. I'd give it to Johnson, because they are extremely consistent with high placing visuals.

And GE!!! In my opinion Avon's show isn't very moving. Vandergrift puts out a beautiful design thats quite appealing, but so does FloMo. I think Flomo takes the GE for the win at this competition

 

It would not surprise me in the least if the three captions in Finals went to three different programs.

[Nny14]

Here's an interesting question- captions. As if deciding who the 14 finalists isn't hard enough, who do you guys think will earn captions?

 

I personally like Avon's band 'sound' not so much for the GE but because its so incredibly clean. Hebron comes very close but they arent quite as balanced overall, although they are just as clean. I'd give Avon music.

Visual is tough, because both Flower Mound and Johnson have put out incredible visual packages this year that are very clean throughout the show. I'd give it to Johnson, because they are extremely consistent with high placing visuals.

And GE!!! In my opinion Avon's show isn't very moving. Vandergrift puts out a beautiful design thats quite appealing, but so does FloMo. I think Flomo takes the GE for the win at this competition

Disagree, I think Hebron has better balance than Avon at this point and their book is just out of this world difficult, although you would never know based on how well they play it. CTJ is pumping out some amazing sounds too. They might not win the caption, but Marcus and Vandegrift should place very high in music.

Visual will most likely be Avon's, could maybe see Claudia Taylor snag it. One of the most difficult visual programs in Texas and they've had tons of time to clean it.

GE is as predictable as the lottery at this point. Hebron will probably kill it in music, but will fall behind in visual. I think Flower Mound and CTJ have the best overall chance for this one.

[bandologist]

Disagree, I think Hebron has better balance than Avon at this point and their book is just out of this world difficult, although you would never know based on how well they play it. CTJ is pumping out some amazing sounds too. They might not win the caption, but Marcus and Vandegrift should place very high in music.

Visual will most likely be Avon's, could maybe see Claudia Taylor snag it. One of the most difficult visual programs in Texas and they've had tons of time to clean it.

GE is as predictable as the lottery at this point. Hebron will probably kill it in music, but will fall behind in visual. I think Flower Mound and CTJ have the best overall chance for this one.

Hebrons music is amazing this year, start to finish. I would consider them neck and neck to Avon, except Avon simply sounds more unified throuoght. If Hebron really balances out the opener, brings up feature highlights and such, they have a clear shot. Its so crazily close

[zururoua]

My caption guesses:

 

Music: Flomo or Hebron (outside chance of CTJ)

 

Visual: Avon (outside chance of CTJ or Flomo)

 

GE: Flomo or CTJ (outside chance of Avon or Hebron)

 

Any of these four could theoretically take any caption imo, but these are most likely I think.

The reason I put Flomo and CTJ at the top is that they are VERY strong in all three and could theoretically sweep (yeah, either of them). Hebron is very strong musically (probably the best of the four) but falls behind in GE and visual. Avon is great visually but their sometimes abrasive brass sound may not hold up well against the Alamodome and that characteristic Texas band sound.

GE is a complete toss up for sure, but Flomo and CTJ both have THE show of the year imo. We'll see how things play out this weekend. It's gonna be exciting for sure.

[CTJBandPops]

My caption guesses:

 

Music: Flomo or Hebron (outside chance of CTJ)

 

Visual: Avon (outside chance of CTJ or Flomo)

 

GE: Flomo or CTJ (outside chance of Avon or Hebron)

 

Any of these four could theoretically take any caption imo, but these are most likely I think.

The reason I put Flomo and CTJ at the top is that they are VERY strong in all three and could theoretically sweep (yeah, either of them). Hebron is very strong musically (probably the best of the four) but falls behind in GE and visual. Avon is great visually but their sometimes abrasive brass sound may not hold up well against the Alamodome and that characteristic Texas band sound.

GE is a complete toss up for sure, but Flomo and CTJ both have THE show of the year imo. We'll see how things play out this weekend. It's gonna be exciting for sure.

I would have to agree with your analysis

while I have only seen the Avon show on FloMarching, I have seen the 3 Texas bands this week in person or on video from their most recent runs and think you are on target

My though (that with $8 will get a coffee at Starbucks) - I feel FloMo and CTJ have a shot at all 3 captions. but that is not to discount Hebron or Avon's chances

This show will come down to who puts the best show on the field in finals - 

Nothing personal but I hope it goes to a Texas band

 

side note - enjoyed another great year of following the shows on TXBands - just made my donation to support - Please do the same - I want to do this again next year

[Danpod]

side note - enjoyed another great year of following the shows on TXBands - just made my donation to support - Please do the same - I want to do this again next year

 

Thank you for supporting us!!!!  We love what we do and we plan on being around for a bit

 

Just a friendly reminder that all donations go directly to server costs/keeping the site running.  Our staff does NOT take any sort of salary from these donations.

[CTJBandPops]

Thank you for supporting us!!!!  We love what we do and we plan on being around for a bit

 

Just a friendly reminder that all donations go directly to server costs/keeping the site running.  Our staff does NOT take any sort of salary from these donations.

Met the Dan's a few years ago - and looking forward to seeing you this weekend - appreciate what you do and hope all that enjoy your services pitch in to support it so we can continue to do the same for years to come.

 

safe travels to the Alamo City

[CTJBandPops]

 

 

GE is a complete toss up for sure, but Flomo and CTJ both have THE show of the year imo. We'll see how things play out this weekend. It's gonna be exciting for sure.

I would agree - they have both have THE show and it will be a shame to not see them battling it out at Grand Nats this year - so I look forward to seeing it played out in San Antonio

 

may the best TEXAS band win

[A Testing Trumpet]

I see only two real category's in this year's San Antonio.  One for the top spot and one for the finals spots. Finals spots coming soon...

 

 

-In Hunt for Championship title-

 

1.Claudia Taylor Johnson:

This will be their last show for the year, which means we can expect them to peak at this time while their most nearest competition are all designed to peak at Grand Nationals. The way their season has progressed thus far indicates that this will be the best CTJ we have yet seen due to the high base scores at both Austin and Midland combined with how they normally clean historically from early season regionals to San Antonio. That said I would not be surprised to see this same group in say 7th place due to how close this will all be. I just think that they have the best potential to win the whole thing, keeping in mind how close this will all be.

 

2-4.Avon/Flower Mound/The Woodlands:

Take your Pick. Avon Has not been outside of the top 3 at Grand Nationals since 2006, and Flower Mound has won San Antonio for 2 years in a row. You may be surprised to see The Woodlands in this category, but remember that the Band has Historically been a late season bloomer and the early season results were VERY impressive considering Hurricane Harvey and just the Raw score they received at Conroe. And don't forget they beat Flower Mound in GE last year when they were in a similar scenario to this year.

 

5-6.Vandegrift/Ronald Reagan:

These two are neck and neck in all the competitions they have gone to. Both have the potential to knock any of the bands above out and win the whole thing, Especially because they are peaking at this completion.

 

7.Hebron : You may be surprised to see these guys so low; yet let me remind you that any of all of these top 8 have a very reasonable chance to win the whole thing. its just so tight in this competition and they will have to fight if they want to win it. (Just like they did to be the Southlake Regional Champion!)

 

8.Marcus:

This is a different Marcus than what we are used to and so far it has been working for them. They also have a Shot to win the whole thing as they have adopted a more BOA-Friendly type of show.

[zururoua]

The top score at this has gotta end being like a 96, right? lol

[MadisonBandMan1]

But what if it ended at like a 98???

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lol

[zururoua]

How would that scoring curve translate to Grand Nats, though?

 

(at Lucas Oil Stadium)

...and in fifth place, with a score of 98.75...

[principalagent]

Top score in BOA Regional history is 96.2 by Marcus in 2007. We'll see if we cross that in about 65 hours.

[natertater21000]

I really doubt we'll pass that score, in fact I doubt it will ever be beaten and not because that performance was just so good no one will ever top it. Ever since marcus almost beating it again in 12 the scores have been much lower for the champion, almost purposefuly it seems.

[principalagent]

I really doubt we'll pass that score, in fact I doubt it will ever be beaten and not because that performance was just so good no one will ever top it. Ever since marcus almost beating it again in 12 the scores have been much lower for the champion, almost purposefuly it seems.

 

I think it may not be totally purposeful. Part of it is that you don't have the tiers that you used to have in finals. It isn't Marcus and LD Bell popping a huge margin over each other, then popping another margin over TWHS/SFA/Bowie/the flavor of the day, then that/those group(s) popping another margin, on down the line. All the bands from 1-14 (and down to like 25ish in prelims) are tons more evenly matched. So now, judges don't have to give larger margins to more clearly and accurately delineate bands. I think the top and bottom split will only exacerbate this going forward - while there will likely be a split of even a few points between 7 and 8, both bands of bands above and below the gap will probably have a tighter score range as judges can manage their numbers over time a little more efficiently.

 

(But low key, Marcus 2007 and 2012 were that good, to be honest).

[natertater21000]

I think it may not be totally purposeful. Part of it is that you don't have the tiers that you used to have in finals. It isn't Marcus and LD Bell popping a huge margin over each other, then popping another margin over TWHS/SFA/Bowie/the flavor of the day, then that/those group(s) popping another margin, on down the line. All the bands from 1-14 (and down to like 25ish in prelims) are tons more evenly matched. So now, judges don't have to give larger margins to more clearly and accurately delineate bands. I think the top and bottom split will only exacerbate this going forward - while there will likely be a split of even a few points between 7 and 8, both bands of bands above and below the gap will probably have a tighter score range as judges can manage their numbers over time a little more efficiently.

 

(But low key, Marcus 2007 and 2012 were that good, to be honest).

Can't say I disagree with that last statement entirely. Marcus 12 isn't my favorite show from an entertainment perspective but I've yet to see anything cleaner.

[takigan]

 

Also, I can't believe that I am predicting Cedar Park out of finals. I honestly just cant see that happening, but dont know what to change.

 

Literally my exact same thoughts.  I have Cedar Park in 15th-- just outside of finals as well. When I realized that I remember thinking "Wait...that can't be right, they got 5th at Grand Nats last year, were 5A state champions the year before that and made Top 5 at Austin earlier this season...where did I mess up?".  Except that I didn't mess up...that's just where they have to be with all the other strong bands that are showing up.  It's crazy...

[Cabbitt]

I’m so excited for this competition that I’m giddy! All of the bands are so strong that we could see a total upset. There are quite a few that have not competed in three weeks or so. That’s a long time to clean a show.

[Guest]

I’m so excited for this competition that I’m giddy! All of the bands are so strong that we could see a total upset. There are quite a few that have not competed in three weeks or so. That’s a long time to clean a show.

Exactly the reason I think Winston Churchill will shock people here.