2018 BOA San Antonio?

[1998-2018]

I don't like making public predictions but I don't mind when others do and I definitely enjoy analyzing data, so here goes. Looking at the Texas bands in the HornRank Top 30 and The Next Ten would lead me to believe those looking for big changes with many new faces are likely to be disappointed. The following list has the 09 OCT 18 HornRank band placements before the slash and the 2017 BOA SA Finals band placements after the slash.

 

09 OCT 18 / 2017 BOA SA

 

01. Claudia Taylor Johnson / Claudia Taylor Johnson

02. Ronald Reagan / Hebron

03. Flower Mound / Vandergrift

04. Leander / Avon

05. Hebron / Ronald Reagan

06. Vandergrift / Flower Mound

07. The Woodlands / Marcus

08. Vista Ridge / Cedar Park

09. Keller / Keller

10. James Bowie / Hendrickson

11. Cedar Park / The Woodlands

12. Marcus / Cedar Ridge

13. Cedar Ridge / James Bowie

14. Hendrickson / Leander

 

15. L.D. Bell / L.D. Bell

16. Timber Creek / Vista Ridge

 

17. Prosper / Pearland

18. Round Rock / Round Rock

19. Winston Churchill/ Westwood

 

Avon won't be in San Antonio this year which makes room for Vista Ridge. Other than that it's the same bands as last year battling for placement in Finals. L.D. Bell is in the same place, one spot out, and they've improved so they may displace someone. The only truly new band in a strong position for an upset is Timber Creek. (Vista Ridge and L.D. Bell are previous SA Finalists) HornRank also noted after BOA DFW that many felt Timber Creek may have overtaken L.D. Bell if Finals weren't rained out so TC is a serious contender too. Prosper is generating a lot of buzz as well this year and has high hopes based on their improvement. They were a bit farther back in the mix at BOA DFW but have an outside shot at being the other new band. That leaves Round Rock and Winston Churchill next and they're both previous Finalist at this competition.

 

It will be interesting to see how the HornRank list developes over the coming weeks leading up to their predictions and the contest but for the most part it's really looking like the usual suspects again.

 

As always, anything can still happen once the music starts!

[MadisonBandMan1]

  On 10/14/2018 at 10:38 PM, A Testing Trumpet said:

 

Predictions as of 10/14

 

"Solid" Finalists

1.CTJ

2.Ronald Reagan

3.Vandegrift

4.Flower Mound

5.Leander

6.The Woodlands

7.Hebron

 

-----------------------Bubble-----

8.James Bowie

9.Keller

10.Marcus

11.Vista Ridge

12.Cedar Park

13.Hendrickson

14.LD Bell

 

----Finals Cutoff----

 

15.Cedar Ridge

16.Cy-Fair

17.Oak Ridge

18.Seven Lakes

19.Winston Churchill

20.Round Rock

------------------------------------Top 20 Cutoff

Timber Creek

James E. Taylor

Waxahachie

Brazoswood

Prosper

Wakeland

---------------------Bubble-----

I like how far you went with this. Care to expand further?

[principalagent]

I can tell you for a fact the HornRank Top 30 and the contest predictions that they'll publish in a couple weeks will be dramatically different from each other. And realistically, what actually will happen will diverge from both!

[A Testing Trumpet]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:02 AM, MadisonBandMan1 said:

I like how far you went with this. Care to expand further?

Sure, when I get some more free time and we get closer to the contest I may expand it. 

[makebeats]

Seven Lakes just scored an 88.6 at the Katy Marching Invitational, a 7 point difference from their score at BOA Conroe  last weekend, and high enough to win Conroe as well.

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:05 AM, principalagent said:

I can tell you for a fact the HornRank Top 30 and the contest predictions that they'll publish in a couple weeks will be dramatically different from each other. And realistically, what actually will happen will diverge from both!

Different from the current list? Yes. Dramatically different? Not by my definition of the word. E.g., the order is more likely to change than many of the bands on the list. And of course the contest results will differ from the prediction, that's expected.

 

So are you saying there will be more than three band in BOA SA Finals that were not there last year and more than two bands that have never been in BOA SA Finals?

 

Edit: Wait a minute, are you also saying their predictions won't simply lift the Texas bands from the latest Top 30 and Next Ten? Why on Earth would they contradict themselves like that?

[froggie]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:23 AM, makebeats said:

 

Seven Lakes just scored an 88.6 at the Katy Marching Invitational, a 7 point difference from their score at BOA Conroe last weekend, and high enough to win Conroe as well.

[froggie]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:30 AM, froggie said:

 

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:23 AM, makebeats said:

 

 

Seven Lakes just scored an 88.6 at the Katy Marching Invitational, a 7 point difference from their score at BOA Conroe last weekend, and high enough to win Conroe as well.

[froggie]

I will tell you that band directors and people who don’t judge BOA / DCI often don’t have the experience to “accurately” score achievement based on the “Box 1-5 type” caption judging. Evaluating BOA scores with any other contest is is like comparing apples to oranges. Points will never be comparable.

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:38 AM, froggie said:

I will tell you that band directors and people who don’t judge BOA / DCI often don’t have the experience to “accurately” score achievement based on the “Box 1-5 type” caption judging. Evaluating BOA scores with any other contest is is like comparing apples to oranges. Points will never be comparable.

This is true even across different BOA contests. Scores are relative, not a precise measurement against a traceable standard. And they tend to increase over the course of the season.

[BandFriendzz]

I’m not gonna make any prediction until I see the order and who is on what blocks

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:07 AM, BandFriendzz said:

I’m not gonna make any prediction until I see the order and who is on what blocks

BOA has already said they are taking the last three years into account. That means the schedule is unlikely to make a meaningful difference to any band that has a reasonable likelihood of making Finals.

[landofwake]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:23 AM, 1998-2018 said:

 

BOA has already said they are taking the last three years into account. That means the schedule is unlikely to make a meaningful difference to any band that has a reasonable likelihood of making Finals.

Yes and no. Unless there is a way to ensure that both panels are scoring exactly the same, there is a chance that a good band or two could get sidelined. Especially in those last 4 spots where the panels are combined and next top 4 make it in. If panel A is overall more lenient than panel B, all those 4 spots could go to bands from panel A, even if panel B bands may actually be better. Also, the prelim caption awards could be similarly affected. It’s almost like taking BOA DFW and BOA Austin and combining the scores. We always talk about how we should not compare scores across contests and here we are combining two separate judging panels. How does BOA plan to (for lack of a better word) normalize scores across both panels to avoid this?

[Samuel Culper]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:23 AM, 1998-2018 said:

BOA has already said they are taking the last three years into account. That means the schedule is unlikely to make a meaningful difference to any band that has a reasonable likelihood of making Finals.

Given that Vista Ridge has not made Finals in SA the last three years, does that make them vulnerable?

[principalagent]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:23 AM, 1998-2018 said:

Different from the current list? Yes. Dramatically different? Not by my definition of the word. E.g., the order is more likely to change than many of the bands on the list. And of course the contest results will differ from the prediction, that's expected.

 

So are you saying there will be more than three band in BOA SA Finals that were not there last year and more than two bands that have never been in BOA SA Finals?

 

Edit: Wait a minute, are you also saying their predictions won't simply lift the Texas bands from the latest Top 30 and Next Ten? Why on Earth would they contradict themselves like that?

 

Your edit is spot on, and there are a couple of reasons why (it isn't quite a contradiction).

 

One, the Top 30 poll consists of a formula. Somewhere in the area of 10-20 contributors are invited to submit polls. Those polls are then averaged and weighted against the polls of recent weeks. Then, they're further hedged against actual contest results. So numerous factors contribute to these polls, and they aren't always thoughtful about growth potential or strength of competition or recency of major competitions. Therefore, the Top 30 is an estimate of where a semi-mechanical formula believes bands across the nation are in a relatively point in time fashion. I'm a ranking contributor and I straight up don't change my results based on hearsay or even based on videos. I almost strictly wait for (major) competitions. Others polled, using different criteria and rationale, change their polls quite wildly and rapidly based on videos and local competitions. I don't think either way is wrong, and it largely balances out.

 

Two, the articles and predictions are written independently of the Top 30. A ranking contributor who has a more intimate knowledge of the bands from their own marching and observing (and sometimes staffing) history does a write-up by themselves. These are more likely to incorporate their own opinions, but also hedge their personal predictions with what is most likely. Additionally, Jeremiah gets final say on rankings and can switch predictions at his discretion. These predictions, being the control of one person, can think much more actively about growth trajectories, show developments, etc. For example, the poll doesn't always account for the fact that The Woodlands comes out of the gate slowly and peaks late and LD Bell starts off strong but doesn't grow so much toward the season's end. The predictions one makes in the article thinks a lot more intentionally about this.

 

To look at this in action, you can look at the rankings versus predictions for Austin, Bedford, San Antonio or St. Louis last year, etc to see how this works out.

[principalagent]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:35 AM, Samuel Culper said:

Given that Vista Ridge has not made Finals in SA the last three years, does that make them vulnerable?

 

I would actually say this is advantageous. They aren't going to be factored into the calculus on who gets put on what day to make it "even". They, independently, will be a driver on how competitive a day would be, along with other bands having great years like Bell, Timber Creek, Oak Ridge, etc, that aren't deciding the division of panels. If they get put in a hard block, I'm convinced they will make it in through the Next 4. Even then, they might still place in the top 5. If they get put in an easier block, then I'm sure they'll in fact take a Top 5 slot to advance.

 

I wouldn't say this for every bubble band. (I don't even consider Vista Ridge a bubble band this year, for what it's worth.) However, for Vista Ridge, you just gotta trust the process here. They're too good to be left out.

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:34 AM, landofwake said:

Yes and no. Unless there is a way to ensure that both panels are scoring exactly the same, there is a chance that a good band or two could get sidelined. Especially in those last 4 spots where the panels are combined and next top 4 make it in. If panel A is overall more lenient than panel B, all those 4 spots could go to bands from panel A, even if panel B bands may actually be better. Also, the prelim caption awards could be similarly affected. It’s almost like taking BOA DFW and BOA Austin and combining the scores. We always talk about how we should not compare scores across contests and here we are combining two separate judging panels. How does BOA plan to (for lack of a better word) normalize scores across both panels to avoid this?

He said he was waiting to see the schedule before making predictions. That's the issue I was addressing. Everything you said, while possible, is irrelevant to that specific issue.

 

While it is possible that one panel may give higher scores relative to the other panel, therefore biasing the selection of the last four Finalist, there is no way to know in advance if this will happen or which panel may inadvertently create the bias so waiting for the schedule also remains largely irrelevant to the issue of making predictions.

[landofwake]

  On 10/15/2018 at 4:00 AM, 1998-2018 said:

 

He said he was waiting to see the schedule before making predictions. That's the issue I was addressing.

Got it

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 3:46 AM, principalagent said:

Your edit is spot on, and there are a couple of reasons why (it isn't quite a contradiction).

 

One, the Top 30 poll consists of a formula. Somewhere in the area of 10-20 contributors are invited to submit polls. Those polls are then averaged and weighted against the polls of recent weeks. Then, they're further hedged against actual contest results. So numerous factors contribute to these polls, and they aren't always thoughtful about growth potential or strength of competition or recency of major competitions. Therefore, the Top 30 is an estimate of where a semi-mechanical formula believes bands across the nation are in a relatively point in time fashion. I'm a ranking contributor and I straight up don't change my results based on hearsay or even based on videos. I almost strictly wait for (major) competitions. Others polled, using different criteria and rationale, change their polls quite wildly and rapidly based on videos and local competitions. I don't think either way is wrong, and it largely balances out.

 

Two, the articles and predictions are written independently of the Top 30. A ranking contributor who has a more intimate knowledge of the bands from their own marching and observing (and sometimes staffing) history does a write-up by themselves. These are more likely to incorporate their own opinions, but also hedge their personal predictions with what is most likely. Additionally, Jeremiah gets final say on rankings and can switch predictions at his discretion. These predictions, being the control of one person, can think much more actively about growth trajectories, show developments, etc. For example, the poll doesn't always account for the fact that The Woodlands comes out of the gate slowly and peaks late and LD Bell starts off strong but doesn't grow so much toward the season's end. The predictions one makes in the article thinks a lot more intentionally about this.

 

To look at this in action, you can look at the rankings versus predictions for Austin, Bedford, San Antonio or St. Louis last year, etc to see how this works out.

I was aware of almost all of that. The one part that was new is that the individual author of the prediction article was also allowed to make individual predictions for that contest. While that local familiarity seems like it could be beneficial in the early Regionals I feel like there should be enough data to make it unnecessary by the time we get to Super Regionals and Grand Nationals and group aggregate predictions are usually more accurate if the group/sample is large enough. I'd prefer to see the Top 30 and contest predictions in sync that late in the season.

 

But I'm just one opinion and I often see the Top 30 or predictions a bit differently than HornRank anyway. It doesn't keep me from being a fan.

 

Thanks for being so thorough when you answered my question.

[Bandwoww]

Some data based on bands returning this year

 

Made finals every year for the past 3 years:

Hebron

Marcus

Flower Mound

CTJ

Ronald Reagan

The Woodlands

Keller

Vandegrift

Cedar Park

 

Made Finals for 2 years in the past 3 years:

Leander*

Hendrickson*

Cedar Ridge

James Bowie

Round Rock

 

Made finals once over the past 3 years:

Winston Churchill

 

 

*Both were favored to make finals in 2015 but transportation issues due to weather prevented them from competing.

 

-Wakeland and Owasso made finals in 2015 but will not return, Cypress Falls made finals in 2016 and will not return, and Avon made finals in 2017 but will not return.

 

-The last time Vista Ridge made finals was in 2014.

[Rudedog34]

After reading over principleajent's top 30 poll formula (albeit, shortened), the formula and ranks mean nothing currently for this season. If a major contributing factor are contest results, then the formula is skewed. Too many bands in Texas have been waylaid by weather and may have 1 competition under their belt.

 

Hendrickson competed at Austin with 2-1/2 movements of their 4 movement show and finished 8th in finals then Waco was cancelled. Re. Hendrickson dropped 11 spots from 15th to 26th. Why? Because, Waco. Yes Dan, I'm gonna use it.

The formula doesn't work this season for a lot of Texas bands, why bother.

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 4:29 AM, Bandwoww said:

Some data based on bands returning this year

Made finals every year for the past 3 years:

Hebron

Marcus

Flower Mound

CTJ

Ronald Reagan

The Woodlands

Keller

Vandegrift

Cedar Park

Made Finals for 2 years in the past 3 years:

Leander*

Hendrickson*

Cedar Ridge

James Bowie

Round Rock

Made finals once over the past 3 years:

Winston Churchill

*Both were favored to make finals in 2015 but transportation issues due to weather prevented them from competing.

-Wakeland and Owasso made finals in 2015 but will not return, Cypress Falls made finals in 2016 and will not return, and Avon made finals in 2017 but will not return.

-The last time Vista Ridge made finals was in 2014.

That's something I looked at too while researching the list I posted. We all come together at this competition making it the largest and best of the best in Texas so it has more in common with a fine smoked brisket than grilled ground sausage. Change comes slowly because excellence generally takes time. It always seems to take longer than we expect for new bands to break into this elite group.

 

P.S. Don't start sending hate my way. It's just a metaphor and I love grilled sausage too.

[1998-2018]

  On 10/15/2018 at 4:46 AM, Rudedog34 said:

After reading over principleajent's top 30 poll formula (albeit, shortened), the formula and ranks mean nothing currently for this season. If a major contributing factor are contest results, then the formula is skewed. Too many bands in Texas have been waylaid by weather and may have 1 competition under their belt.

Hendrickson competed at Austin with 2-1/2 movements of their 4 movement show and finished 8th in finals then Waco was cancelled. Re. Hendrickson dropped 11 spots from 15th to 26th. Why? Because, Waco. Yes Dan, I'm gonna use it.

The formula doesn't work this season for a lot of Texas bands, why bother.

The current Top 30 list came out before Waco. It's not the reason for the drop.

 

Keep in mind 8th at BOA Austin doesn't translate to 8th in the country. If they are considering even four other competitions the four 8th place bands would start out grouped around 24th place (8×4=24) and then adjustments would be made from there. Keller placed 3nd at BOA DFW right behind Hebron who was ranked 2nd in the country at the time but in the next Top 30 Keller was ranked 13th (again, 3×4=12). The math is just a simple estimate used for illustration, it's the broader principle that is important to understand.

[LeanderMomma]

  On 10/15/2018 at 2:05 AM, principalagent said:

I can tell you for a fact the HornRank Top 30 and the contest predictions that they'll publish in a couple weeks will be dramatically different from each other. And realistically, what actually will happen will diverge from both!

Yes, but how’s the weather in San Antonio as opposed to DFW or Houston or Austin?

[principalagent]

  On 10/15/2018 at 5:06 AM, LeanderMomma said:

Yes, but how’s the weather in San Antonio as opposed to DFW or Houston or Austin?

Ha! Thankfully neither BOA nor UIL are secretive and I do not have to figure 40 or so placeholder names like I do for Indiana bands!