A Potential Horrific UIL Balance Situation

[NETexasBandFan]

For those of you who don't know, UIL 3A Area C is an insanely hard area. All 4 bands from there made state finals, placing 1st, 4th, 6th, and 8th respectively. There's 3 or 4 other bands in this area that would have a shot at the state finals, and a consistent 4A state finalist, Atlanta, was moved into this area this past alignment.

 

The question is, as UIL keeps pushing the bottom limit of the cutoffs up, what happens as more good 4As like Atlanta move down?

 

http://realignment.uiltexas.org/alignments/2018/4-Reclassification_Data.pdf

This document right here shows how the bottom cutoffs are slowly going to come full circle now that UIL added 6A, odds are eventually 4A now could become the same cutoffs as it was in the late 80s or even all the way to what it was the year before 6A was added. 

 

Take the 1994 3A cutoff for example, 295 to 714 kids. This would keep all of the following:

Mineola

Queen City

New Diana

New Boston 

Winnsboro

Redwater

Atlanta

All of these bands but 1 have been to state finals before, 2 of them have won state championships, 2 more have metaled, all of them were considered potentially state finalist worthy in 2017

(It would remove Omaha Pewitt into 2A)

 

But, it also adds:

Spring Hill (current 4A state finalist)

Pleasant Grove 

Liberty-Eylau

Gilmer

Pittsburg

 

The first 4 bands were 2nd, 6th, 10th, 11th at 4A Area C this year respectively. 3 of them have been to state finals before. Imagine what they could do in 3A. If all these programs remain strong, this 3A area could become a brutal nightmare. But that won't happen for MANY years, and a lot changes in decades, back when these cutoffs were the same most of these schools were infact in 3A together, just not nearly as strong, it's just a thought to entertain the mind  . 

[PantherBone]

If we get to this point considering the growth in the state, UIL would split a lower conference and add an 'A' to each conference above (like in 2014), which in this case would create Conference 7A. In this soecific scenario, I would guess that 3A would split into 3A and 4A, 5A would be from about 700 to 1500, 6A would be 1500 to 3000, and 7A would be 3000 up.

[LostChoirGuy]

Personally, I really like the idea of more schools in larger classifications. Right now almost all of the top bands in Texas are 6A and it keeps things from being as interesting. In the state that I live in, the classifications are very strange, so the classifications have somewhat to do with size and somewhat to do woth location and honestly it is pretty cool because from year to year the lower classifications are competitive woth the higjer ones (Im not referring to band alone on this, but every sport and event).

 

The other benefit to this would be getting a better spread of bands at G Nats instead of a whole swath every other year.

[PantherBone]

  On 10/29/2018 at 2:20 PM, P-town T-Bone said:

If we get to this point considering the growth in the state, UIL would split a lower conference and add an 'A' to each conference above (like in 2014), which in this case would create Conference 7A. In this soecific scenario, I would guess that 3A would split into 3A and 4A, 5A would be from about 700 to 1500, 6A would be 1500 to 3000, and 7A would be 3000 up.

That is just my guess. But considering the growth in the state, I think it won't be long before we see Conference 7A. If they don't add 7A at some point, 3A Area C would be the strongest area in the state.

[LostChoirGuy]

Although I think it makes sense to split B and C at some point and make a third north texas area. In nearly every classification B or C have some of the hardest competition and there are a lot of schools there. A little bit of realignment, perhaps by taking the Waco area schools and then restructuring areas D and H to be more even in numbers would be nice.

[NETexasBandFan]

  On 10/29/2018 at 3:11 PM, P-town T-Bone said:

That is just my guess. But considering the growth in the state, I think it won't be long before we see Conference 7A. If they don't add 7A at some point, 3A Area C would be the strongest area in the state.

The thing about the cutoffs is that they seem to bring them around full cycle before adding another A, 1A now would probably have to come around full cycle to around what it equaled in 2012 before they added 6A in 2014, which basically split 1A into 1A and 2A and bumped everything else up an A.

 

2012 looked like this, so, let's say it comes quickly full cycle by 2022.

5A 2090 & up

4A 1005-2089

3A 450-1004

2A 200-449

1A 199 & below

 

2022 would look like this, and 2024 would split 1A back in half and simply bump everyone up

6A 3500+? (I would actually estimate

5A 2090-199

4A 1005-2089

3A 450-1004

2A 200-449

1A 199 & below

 

 

Because of this cycle, there WILL be a point where the 3A cutoff hits a zone that will create that super area I theorized, assuming those schools don't exponentially grow or shrink. Within 2-4 more alignments it would start sorting itself out though, sending smaller school bands down to 2A.

 

 

  On 10/29/2018 at 4:14 PM, LostChoirGuy said:

Although I think it makes sense to split B and C at some point and make a third north texas area. In nearly every classification B or C have some of the hardest competition and there are a lot of schools there. A little bit of realignment, perhaps by taking the Waco area schools and then restructuring areas D and H to be more even in numbers would be nice.

The issue with this is how close these schools are, every single one I mentioned are in Region 4. Atlanta, Queen City, Pleasant Grove, Liberty-Eylau, New Boston, and Redwater are within the same 2 neighboring counties. There could be hope to realign out Mineola, Winnsboro, and perhaps White Oak into a new area, the thing is Region 3 of Area B is right next door to the east, holding Canton, Wills Point, and Famersville, who are all small enough to move down to 3A in this same theorized situation. (And 3A Area B also contributes entirely state finalists too I believe)

[Brassy]

I think 6A has just as much problem with this.  Look at the bands left out of state in some of the areas!

[NETexasBandFan]

  On 10/29/2018 at 8:42 PM, Brassy said:

I think 6A has just as much problem with this. Look at the bands left out of state in some of the areas!

All conferences have this issue to an extent, except 1A because there's no area, but I was pointing out a hypothetical but likely situation that would be the peak of this problem. I believe the top 3 most overly difficult areas as of now are 6A Area B, 3A Area C, and 4A Area B. 6A Area H is an honorable mention but there's a pretty big gap between the 4 that ended up going to state out of that area and everyone else.

 

I do like how this topic is starting to become about UIL alignment balance in general, it gets you thinking a lot

[PantherBone]

I go to Princeton and since we moved up, we are now in 5A Area B, and I was wondering how "balanced" y'all think that area is. (As in, how hard is it compared to the rest of the state?)